Embankment dams are widely used as water-retaining structures through the world. Two principal structural failure modes of embankment dams are internal erosion and slope instability. The objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of applying probabilistic methods in embankment dam assessment. Compared to deterministic methods, probabilistic methods considers the variability in material properties and the results are more assessable. Meanwhile, the derived sensitivity factors of the variables can be used to find the most influential one.Through a literature review, it is found that the difficulties in defining a limit state function for the full process of internal erosion for embankment dams hold back the application of reliability-based methods. However, reliability-based methods have been recognized as suitable for slope stability assessment.In this thesis, both deterministic and probabilistic calculations have been performed for a homogenous embankment dam. The deterministic calculation is carried out in Slope/W to first find out the most critical slip surface. The failure probability of this slip surface is estimated by both Monte Carlo simulations in Slope/W and FORM analysis in Comrel. Then, the 34 most critical slip surfaces from Slope/W are chosen to calculate the system reliability with simple bounds and applied integration. The results from the deterministic and probabilistic calculations showed that the studied dam has a higher risk of failure than allowed. In the system reliability calculation, simple bounds gives a wide range, especially the upper bounds. It was found that classification of different slip surfaces into different groups with respect to geometry and material was useful to simplify the calculations. Not much improvement in accuracy of the system probability of failure is found when increasing the numbers (from 1 to 5) of the most critical slip surfaces from each group. Even the combination of 1 slip surface from each group only gives an error of 6.5%. Categorizing slip surfaces before performing a system reliability analysis is a good way for simplification of the calculations. Due to this, the criteria used for categorization of the slip surfaces are of interest. In this work, it was found that the slip geometry in combination with the materials included in the slip surface constitute a possible way forward to do this. / Fyllningsdammar används ofta som dämmande konstruktioner runt om i världen. Två potentiella brottmoder för fyllningsdammar är inre erosion och släntinstabilitet.Syftet med detta examensarbete är att undersöka möjligheten att tillämpa probabilistiska metoder vid utvärdering av fyllningsdammars säkerhet för dessa brottmoder. Jämfört med deterministiska metoder betraktar probabilistiska metoder även variationen i materialegenskaper. Erhållna känslighetsfaktorer för ingående variabler kan även användas för att hitta de som har störst inverkan på det studerade problemet.I litteraturstudien framkom att det är svårt att definiera en gränsfunktion som beskriver inre erosion för fyllnadsdammar, vilket begränsar dess användbarhet med probabilistiska metoder. För analys av släntstabilitet är dock probabilistiska metoder användbara. Både deterministiska och probabilistiska beräkningar av släntstabiliteten för en fyllnadsdamm har genomförts inom ramen för detta arbete. De deterministiska beräkningarna har utförts med programmet Slope/W, där den mest kritiska glidytan först har analyserats. Brottsannolikheten för dammen har beräknats med både Monte Carlo-simulering i Slope/W och FORM-analys i Comrel. En begränsning med att enbart beräkna brottsannolikheten för den mest kritiska glidytan är att brottsannolikheten kan underskattas då inverkan från andra potentiella glidytor inte beaktas. De potentiella glidytorna kan betraktas som ett seriesystem, där glidytorna är delvis korrelerade med varandra. För att studera denna fråga valdes de 34 mest kritiska glidytorna från Slope/W ut för att beräkna systemets tillförlitlighet. Resultaten från de deterministiska och probabilistiska beräkningarna visade att den studerade dammen hade en oacceptabel brottsannolikhet. I beräkningarna av gränserna för systemets brottsannolikhet visade resultaten att brottsannolikheten kan variera stort beroende på korrelationen mellan glidytorna. Genom att klassificera glidytorna i olika grupper med hänsyn till geometri och ingående material kan beräkningarna för systemets brottsannolikhet förenklas. Resultaten visade att noggrannheten i beräkningarna för brottsannolikheten av systemet inte förbättrades i någon större utsträckning när antalet valda glidytor (från 1 till 5) från varje grupp av likartade glidytor inkluderades i beräkningen. Kombinationen av 1 glidyta från varje grupp gav endast ett fel på 6,5% jämfört med om alla 34 glidytorna inkluderades. Kategorisering av glidytor av samma karaktär i olika grupper rekommenderas därför att genomföras innan systemets tillförlitlighet analyseras. I detta arbete framkom att glidytan geometri i kombination med ingående material i glidytan utgör ett lämpligt kriterium för att göra denna indelning.

Embankment dams are widely used as water-retaining structures through the world. Two principal structural failure modes of embankment dams are internal erosion and slope instability. The objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of applying probabilistic methods in embankment dam assessment. Compared to deterministic methods, probabilistic methods considers the variability in material properties and the results are more assessable. Meanwhile, the derived sensitivity factors of the variables can be used to find the most influential one.Through a literature review, it is found that the difficulties in defining a limit state function for the full process of internal erosion for embankment dams hold back the application of reliability-based methods. However, reliability-based methods have been recognized as suitable for slope stability assessment.In this thesis, both deterministic and probabilistic calculations have been performed for a homogenous embankment dam. The deterministic calculation is carried out in Slope/W to first find out the most critical slip surface. The failure probability of this slip surface is estimated by both Monte Carlo simulations in Slope/W and FORM analysis in Comrel. Then, the 34 most critical slip surfaces from Slope/W are chosen to calculate the system reliability with simple bounds and applied integration. The results from the deterministic and probabilistic calculations showed that the studied dam has a higher risk of failure than allowed. In the system reliability calculation, simple bounds gives a wide range, especially the upper bounds. It was found that classification of different slip surfaces into different groups with respect to geometry and material was useful to simplify the calculations. Not much improvement in accuracy of the system probability of failure is found when increasing the numbers (from 1 to 5) of the most critical slip surfaces from each group. Even the combination of 1 slip surface from each group only gives an error of 6.5%. Categorizing slip surfaces before performing a system reliability analysis is a good way for simplification of the calculations. Due to this, the criteria used for categorization of the slip surfaces are of interest. In this work, it was found that the slip geometry in combination with the materials included in the slip surface constitute a possible way forward to do this.

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No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Nícolas Rodrigues Moura - 2018.pdf: 4165797 bytes, checksum: 86460ffa29b4d346005f977c2f75693e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Análises de estabilidade de taludes são predominantemente realizadas em duas-dimensões (2D) por métodos de equilíbrio limite. Os métodos convencionais de equilíbrio limite são alvos de muitas críticas pelo o uso do equilíbrio estático, pressuposições de forças na análise e por possuir o mesmo fator de segurança ao longo de toda a superfície de deslizamento. Para superar essas deficiências, o método proposto por Kulhawy (1969) incorpora o comportamento tensão-deformação do solo com tensões oriundas do Método de Elementos Finitos (FEM) e tem a mesma estrutura dos métodos de equilíbrio dos métodos de equilíbrio de equilíbrio limite clássicos. É também chamado de método aperfeiçoado. Devido à existência de taludes com geometrias complexas, a abordagem tridimensional (3D) é a única capaz de incorporar todos os aspectos geométricos do problema. Esta dissertação é dividida em dois artigos com o tema de estabilidade de taludes pelo o método de Kulhawy em abordagens 2D e 3D. O objetivo primário dessa dissertação é avaliar os principais fatores que influenciam a estabilidade de taludes. O primeiro artigo propôs geometrias variando de convexo a côncavo em um conjunto de propriedades típicas de solos. Duas trajetórias de geração de tensões in- situ foram utilizadas, i.e., construção e escavação. O método GLE foi calculado para fins de comparação. A superfície de deslizamento é muito dependente do histórico de tensão e da forma da face do talude. A diferença relativa no estado de tensões inicial típico alcançou 15% nas análises 2D e 34% nas análises 3D. A análise de sensibilidade do efeito do Poisson no fator de segurança mostrou-se muito relevante. A relação entre os fatores de segurança 2D e 3D são quase lineares independente do estado de tensões, das propriedades de resistência, formato da face do talude, na ordem de 30 a 40%. O segundo artigo propõe análises em barragens construídas em vales estreitos. Três abordagens de análises foram utilizadas: redução de resistência ao cisalhamento (SSR), métodos de Kulhawy e GLE. Condições típicas de fundações são muito variáveis como topografia e deformabilidade. A análise de sensibilidade do módulo de fundação de Young no fator de segurança foi insignificante em 2D e relevantes em 3D. A relação entre o comprimento do aterro (W) e a altura () é uma variável representativa do grau de estreitamento da barragem e na estabilidade de taludes. A análise de deformações planas tende a altas relações W/H e o oposto mostra elevados efeitos 3D. A inclinação da ombreira mostrou-se relevante no fator de segurança apenas em aterros em vales estreitos. Fundações mais rígidas são mais beneficias para o fator de segurança devido à produção de altos efeitos de arqueamento neste cenário. O método de Kulhawy provou-se ser vantajoso pela a incorporação do comportamento mecânico do solo, o uso de tensões mais realísticas nas análises e avaliação da estabilidade local na superfície de deslizamento. Isso aumenta a quantidade de informações úteis e confiáveis para o profissional de engenharia no projeto de taludes. Todas as análises foram realizadas usando o software SoilVision Systems, Saskatchewan, Canadá. Os módulos utilizados foram o SVLOPE, SVSOLID e o SVFLUX (SoilVision Systems Ltd., 2018). A análise de tensão para a simulação de trajetórias de escavação e construção utilizou do solucionador de Equações Diferenciais Parcias (PDE) o FlexPDE 6 (PDE Solutions Inc., 2014). / Slope stability analyses are predominantly performed using the two-dimensional (2D) conventional limit equilibrium methods. Conventional limit equilibrium methods are targets of many criticisms for using static equilibrium, assumptions of forces in the analysis and the same factor of safety along the slip surface. In order to overcome these shortcomings, the method proposed by Kulhawy (1969) incorporates the stress-strain behavior of the soil with stresses from the Finite Element Method (FEM) with the same structure as limit equilibrium methods. It is also called enhanced method. Due to the existence of slopes with complex geometries, the three-dimensional (3D) approach is only able to incorporate all the geometric aspects of the problem. This thesis is divided into two papers with the subject of slope stability analyses by the Kulhawy’s method in 2D and 3D approaches. The primary objective of this thesis is to evaluate major factors that influence slope stability. The first paper proposed geometries ranging from convex to concave in a set of soil properties. Two stress paths were considered, i.e., construction and excavation. The GLE method was computed for comparison purposes. The slip surface is very dependent on the stress history and the shape of slope face. The relative difference in typical initial stress state reached 15% in 2D analyses and 34% in 3D analyses. Sensitivity analysis of effect of Poisson’s ratio on factor of safety was very relevant. The relationship between 2D and 3D factors of safety are nearly linear independent of stress state on order of 30 to 40%. The second paper propose analyses on embankment dams built in narrow valleys. Three approaches of slope stability were used: shear strength reduction (SSR), Kulhawy’s and GLE methods. The typical conditions of foundation sites are very variable as topography and deformability. Sensitivity analysis of Young’s modulus of foundation on factor of safety was insignificant in 2D and relevant in 3D analyses. The ratio between embankment length (W) and height (H) was very important on slope stability. The plane strain analysis tends to high W/H ratio and the opposite shows high 3D effects. The inclination of abutment showed to be relevant on factor of safety only in embankments in narrow valleys. Stiffer foundations are beneficial to the factor of safety due producing high arching effects in this scenario. The Kulhawy’s method proved to be advantageous by the incorporation of mechanical behavior of soil, more realistic stress and local stability evaluation on slip surface. It increases the amount of useful and reliable information to the engineering professional in design of slopes. All analyses were performed using SoilVision Systems suite software, Saskatchewan, Canada. The modules used were SVSLOPE, SVSOLID and SVFLUX (SoilVision Systems Ltd., 2018). The stress analysis for the simulation of excavation and construction trajectories used partial differential equation (PDE) solver, FlexPDE 6 (PDE Solutions Inc., 2014).