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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.

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Showing 1 to 2 of 2 (0.127 seconds)

Spelling suggestions: "subject:"aocial pension systems"" "subject:"1social pension systems""

1

ARIMA forecasts of the number of beneficiaries of social security grants in South Africa

Luruli, Fululedzani Lucy 12 1900 (has links)
The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore- casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe- ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3) for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)
Social security grants
Forecast
Social pension systems
Portmanteau test
Model identification
Standard error
Mean square error
Autocorrelation function
Akaike's information criterion
519.5
Box-Jenkins forecasting
Forecasting -- Statistical methods
Akaike Information Criterion
Mathematical models
2

ARIMA forecasts of the number of beneficiaries of social security grants in South Africa

Luruli, Fululedzani Lucy 12 1900 (has links)
The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore- casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe- ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3) for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)
Social security grants
Forecast
Social pension systems
Portmanteau test
Model identification
Standard error
Mean square error
Autocorrelation function
Akaike's information criterion
519.5
Box-Jenkins forecasting
Forecasting -- Statistical methods
Akaike Information Criterion
Mathematical models

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