Agricultural scientists are faced with the challenge of producing enough food for the increasing world population. Hence the need to develop tools for managing soil and plant systems to increase food production in order to meet the world food demand in the future. Crop simulation models have become promising tools in predicting yield and related components fi'om a set of weather, soil, plant and management data inputs. This study describes the estimation of solar radiant density, a crucial input in crop simulation models; calibration and validation of a soil-plant growth simulator, CropSyst, for management purposes; and generation of weather data for assessment of crop production under possible climate changes in the future. Daily solar radiant density, an input required by most crop simulation models, is infiequently observed in many stations. This may prevent application of crop simulation models for specific locations. Long-term data records of daily minimum and maximum air temperatures, precipitation, sunshine hours and/or solar radiant density were obtained for Cedara, Durban, Seven Oaks and Ukulinga in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Solar radiant density was estimated fi'om sunshine hours using the Angstrom equation and ten other models that involved daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and/or precipitation along with extratelTestrial radiant density. Coefficients for the Angstrom equation and one of the other ten models were specifically developed for South African conditions; the remaining models required fitting coefficients using the available data for all locations. The models were evaluated using (i) conventional statistics that involved, root mean square elTor (RMSE) along with its systematic and unsystematic components, slope, intercept, index of agreement (d), and coefficient of determination (R\ and (ii) a fuzzy expert system that involved a single modular indicator (Ira d) aggregated from the modules of accuracy (aggregation of the indices relative RMSE, model efficiency and I-student probability), con'elation (Pearson's correlation coefficient) and pattem (aggregation of pattem index vs day of year and pattem index vs minimum air temperature). For each index, two functions describing membership to the fuzzy subsets Favourable (F) and Unfavourable (V) were defined. The expelt system calculates the modules according to both the degree of membership and a set of decision rules. Solar radiant density estimated from sunshine hours for the Durban station resulted in R2 , RMSE (MJ m,2) and d index of 0.90, 2.32 and 0.97 respectively. In the absence of observed solar radiant density data, estimations from sunshine hours were used for derivation of coefficients as well as evaluation of the models. For Durban, the performance of the models was generally poor. For Cedara, Seven Oakes and Ukulinga two of the models resulted in a high d index and smallest systematic RMSE. The solar radiant density estimated from each model was also used as an input to simulate maize grain yields using the soil-plant growth simulator, CropSyst. The models were ranked according to their ability to simulate grain yields that match those obtained from using the observed solar radiant density. The rankings according to crop simulation, conventional statistics and expert system were compared. The CropSyst model was also evaluated for its ability to simulate crop water-use of fallow and cropped (oats, Italian ryegrass, rye and maize) plots at Cedara, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Soil characteristics, initial soil water conditions, irrigation and weather data were inputted to CropSyst. Crop input parameters for oats, Italian ryegrass and rye were used, with little modifications, as determined from field experiments conducted at Kromdraai open cast mine, Mpumalanga province, South Africa. Crop input parameters for maIze were either determined fi'om field experiments or taken from CropSyst crop input parameters documentation and adjusted within a narrow specification range of values as dictated by CropSyst. The findings indicated that CropSyst was generally able to simulate reasonably well the water-use of fallow and cropped (oats, Italian ryegI°ass, rye and maize) plots; leaf area index and crop evapotranspiration of rye; and grain yield and developmental stages of maize. The validated CropSyst model was also used to simulate timing and amount of irrigation water, and investigate incipient water stress in oats, Italian ryegrass and rye. The CropSyst model was used to investigate potential effects of future climate changes on the productivity of maize grain yields at Cedara, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The effect of planting date (local planting date, a fortnight earlier and a fortnight later) was also included in the study. A 30-year baseline weather data input series were generated by a stochastic weather generator, ClimGen, using 30 years of observed weather data (l971 to 2000). The generated weather data series was compared with the observed for its distributions of daily rainfall and wet and dry series, monthly total rainfall and its variances, daily and monthly mean and variance of precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature, and solar radiant density. Four months of the year failed to reproduce distributions of wet and dry series, daily precipitation, and monthly variances of precipitation of the observed weather data series. In addition, Penman-Monteith reference evaporation (ETa) was calculated using the observed and generated data series. Cumulative probability function of ETa calculated using the generated weather data series followed the observed distribution well. Moreover, maize grain yields were simulated using the generated and observed weather data series with local, a fortnight earlier and a fortnight later planting dates. The mean simulated grain yields for the respective planting dates were not statistically different from each other; the grain yields simulated using the generated weather data had significantly smaller variance than the grain yields simulated using the observed weather data series. When the generated weather data series was used an input, the early planting date as compared to the locally practiced and late planting dates resulted in significantly greater simulated grain yields. The grain yields simulated using the observed weather data for the early and local planting dates were not statistically different from each other. The baseline period was modified by synthesized climate projections to create future climatic scenarios. The climate changes considered corresponded to doubling of [C02] from 350 to 700 ~t1 ,-I without air temperature and water regime changes, and doubling of [C02] accompanied by increases in mean air temperature and precipitation changes of 2 (lC and 10%, 2 (le and 20%>, 4 °c and 10%, and 4 (lC and 20% respectively. Solar radiant density was also estimated from daily air temperature range for all scenarios that involved change in mean air temperature. In addition, input crop parameters of radiation-use and biomass transpiration efficiencies were modified for maize, in CropSyst, to accommodate changes in elevated levels of [C02]. Equivalent doubling of [C02], without air temperature or water regime changes, resulted in increased simulated grain yields as compared to the baseline period. Adding 2 QC to the mean daily temperature and 10% to the daily precipitation of a [C02] elevated atmosphere reduced the grain yield but still kept it above the level of the baseline period grain yield. Adding 4 QC to the mean daily temperature and 10% to the daily precipitation fLllther decreased the yield. Increasing the daily precipitation by 20% instead of 10% did not change the simulated grain yield as compared to the 10% increments. Early planting date, for all scenarios, also resulted in higher yields, but the relative increment in grain yield was higher for the late planting dates with scenarios that involved increment in mean air temperature. In general, this study confi1l11ed that doubling of [C02] increases yield but the accompanied increase in mean air temperature reduces yield. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2003.

Ongoing concerns about the efficient and sustainable utilisation of South Africa’s water resources have resulted in much interest regarding the water use of different land uses within a catchment. Research has been focussed on water use by different dryland vegetation, in particular commercial forestry which has been declared a Stream Flow Reduction Activity for which a water use license is required for production. Consequently, concerns about the water use of other dryland crops have lead to a need to quantify water use by other land uses, particularly sugarcane. In this document, previous research focussed on water use by sugarcane is reviewed and summarised, together with an experiment where an energy balance approach has been used to quantify water consumption in the form of total evaporation for an area of sugarcane production in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands with an assessment of the seasonal variability of this water consumption for a period of 1 year. The study was performed using a Large Aperture Scintillometer to measure sensible heat flux, whilst all other energy balance components, as well as rainfall, soil moisture and other climatic data were obtained using standard methods. Total evaporation was estimated from latent heat flux which was derived as a residual of the energy balance. Total evaporation varies over the year with substantially higher values occurring in summer in response to high energy and water availability. Over the year, the crop used approximately 630mm of water which equates to 53% of rainfall at the site. The two main factors affecting the seasonal variability of water use by sugarcane are net radiation and soil moisture content. In the wetter months when soil moisture is readily available, net radiation limits total evaporation. In the drier months, soil moisture is not as readily available, and limits total evaporation. Air temperature and relative humidity proved to also be important considerations in their effect on total evaporation. The total evaporation estimates obtained could be compared to a baseline (grassland) and used in simulations for a better understanding of the stream flow reduction potential of sugarcane and the seasonal variability thereof. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.

The generation of large quantities of mine wastewater in South African coal mines and the needs for a cost effective, as well as an environmentally sustainable manner of mine water disposal, have fostered interests in the possibility of utilizing mine water for irrigation. Such a possibility will not only provide a cost-effective method of minimizing excess mine drainage, as treatment using physical, chemical and biological methods can be prohibitively expensive, but will also stabilize the dry-land crop production by enhancing dry season farming. Considering the arid to semi-arid climate of South Africa, the utilization of mine water for irrigation will also boost the beneficial exploitation of the available water resources and relieve the increasing pressure on, and the competition for, dwindling amounts of good quality water by the various sectors of the economy. The disposal of excess gypsiferous mine water through irrigation has been researched in a few collieries in the Witbank area. In this study, the assessment of the impacts of using gypsiferous mine water for irrigation were carried out in parts of the Upper Olifants basin upstream of Witbank Dam, using the ACRU2000 model and its salinity module known as ACRUSalinity. The study area was chosen on the bases of locations of previous field trials and the availability of mine water for large-scale irrigation. The primary objectives of the study were the development of relevant modules in ACRU2000 and ACRUSalinity to enable appropriate modelling and assessment of the impact of large-scale irrigation with mine water and the application of the modified models to the chosen study area. The methodology of the study included the modifications of ACRU2000 and ACRUSalinity and their application at three scales of study, viz. centre pivot, catchment and mine scales. The soils, hydrologic and salt distribution response units obtained from the centre pivot scale study were employed as inputs into the catchment scale study. The soils, hydrologic and salt distribution response units obtained from the catchment assessment were in turn applied in similar land segments identified in the mine used for the mine scale study. The modifications carried out included the incorporation of underground reservoirs as representations of underground mine-out areas, multiple water and associated salt load transfers into and out of a surface reservoir, seepages from groundwater into opencast pits, precipitation of salts in irrigated and non-irrigated areas and the incorporation of a soil surface layer into ACRUSalinity to account for the dissolution of salts during rainfall events. Two sites were chosen for the centre pivot scale study. The two sites (Syferfontein pivot of 21 ha, located in Syferfontein Colliery on virgin soils; Tweefontein pivot of 20 ha, located in Kleinkopje Colliery on rehabilitated soils) were equipped with centre pivots (which irrigated agricultural crops with mine water), as well as with rainfall, irrigation water and soil water monitoring equipment. The pivots were contoured and waterways constructed so that the runoff could leave the pivots over a weir (at Tweefontein pivot) or flume (at Syferfontein pivot) where the automatic monitoring of the quantity and quality of runoff were carried out. The runoff quantities and qualities from the pivots were used for verification of the modified ACRU2000 and ACRUSalinity. The catchment scale study was on the Tweefontein Pan catchment, which was a virgin area mainly within the Kleinkopje Colliery, draining into the Tweefontein Pan. The data on the water storage and qualities in Tweefontein Pan, as well as the soil water salinities in the irrigated area located within the catchment were used for verification of results. In the catchment scale study, different scenarios, including widespread irrigation on virgin and rehabilitated soils, were simulated and evaluated. For the mine scale study, the Kleinkopje Colliery was used. The colliery was delineated into 29 land segment areas and categorized into seven land use types, on the basis of the vegetation and land uses identified in different parts of colliery. The centre pivot and catchment scale studies indicated that the impacts of irrigation with low quality mine water on the water resources are dependent on the soil types, climate, the characteristics and the amount of the irrigation mine water applied, whether irrigation was on virgin on rehabilitated soils and the status of the mine in terms of whether a regional water table has been re-established in an opencast mining system or not. The studies further indicated that the irrigation of agricultural crops with low quality mine water may lead to increases in soil water salinity and drainage to groundwater, but that the mine water use for irrigation iii purposes can be successfully carried out as most of the water input onto the irrigated area will be lost through total evaporation and a significant proportion of the salt input, both from rainfall and irrigation water, will either be precipitated in the soil horizons or dissolved in the soil water of the soil horizons. By irrigating with a saline mine water therefore, the salts associated with the low quality mine water can be removed from the water system, thereby reducing the possibility of off-site salt export and environmental pollution. On-site salt precipitation, however, may lead to accumulation of salts in the soil horizons and consequent restriction of crop yields. Therefore, efficient cropping practices, such as leaching and selection of tolerant crops to the expected soil salinity, may be required in order to avoid the impact of long-term salinity build up and loss of crop yields. The simulated mean annual runoff and salt load contribution to Witbank Dam from the Kleinkopje Colliery were 2.0 x 103 MI and 392 tons respectively. The mean annual runoff and salt load represented 2.7% and 1.4% of the average water and salt load storage in Witbank Dam respectively. About 45% of the total water inflow and 65% of the total salt load contribution from the study area into Witbank Dam resulted from groundwater storage. From the scenario simulations, the least salt export would occur when widespread irrigation is carried out in rehabilitated areas prior to the re-establishment of the water table due to a lower runoff and runoff salt load. It may therefore be a better water management strategy in active collieries if irrigation with mine water is carried out on rehabilitated soils. In conclusion, this research work has shown that successful irrigation of some (salt tolerance) crops with low quality mine water can be done, although increases in the soil water salinity of the irrigated area, runoff from the irrigated area and drainage to the groundwater store can occur. Through the modifications carried out in the ACRU2000 model and the ACRUSalinity module in this research work, a tool has been developed, not only for application in the integrated assessment of impact of irrigation with mine water on water resources, but also for the integrated assessment and management of water resources in coal-mining environments in South Africa. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2007.

Many techniques have been developed over the years in first world countries for the estimation of flood hydrographs from small catchments for application in design, management and operations of water related issues. However, relatively little attention has been directed towards the transfer and adaptation of such techniques to developing countries in which major hydrological decisions are crucially needed, but in which a scarcity of quality hydrological data often occurs. As a result, hydrologists and engineers in developing countries are frequently unable to alleviate the problems that extreme rainfall events can create through destructive flood flows or, alternatively, they do not possess the appropriate tools with which to design economically viable hydraulic structures. Eritrea is a typical example of a developing country which faces difficulties in regard to the adaptation of an appropriate design flood estimation technique for application on small catchments. As a result, the need has arisen to adapt a relatively simple and robust design flood model that can aid hydrologists and engineers in making economic and safe designs of hydraulic structures in small catchments. One objective of this study was, therefore, to review approaches to hydrological modelling and design flood estimation techniques on small catchments, in order to identify the barriers regarding their adaptation, as well as to assist in the selection of an appropriate technique for application, in Eritrea. The southern African adaptation of the SCS (i.e. Soil Conservation Service) design hydrograph technique, which has become a standard method for design flood estimation from small catchments in that region, was selected for application on small catchments in Eritrea for several reasons. It relies on the determination of a simple catchment response index in the form of an initial Curve Number (CN), which reflects both the abstraction characteristics and the non-linear stormflow responses of the catchment from a discrete rainfall event. Many studies on the use of SCS-based hydrological models have identified that adjustment of the initial CN to a catchment's antecedent soil moisture (ASM) to be crucial, as the ASM has been found to be one of the most sensitive parameters for accurate estimates of design flood volumes and peak discharges. In hydrologically heterogeneous regions like Eritrea, the hypothesis was postulated that simulations using a suitable soil water budgeting procedure for CN adjustment would lead to improved estimates of design flood volumes and peak discharges when compared with adjustments using the conventional SCS antecedent moisture conditions (SCS-AMC) method. The primary objective of this dissertation was to develop a surrogate methodology for the soil water budgeting procedure of CN adjustment, because any direct applications of soil water budgeting techniques are impractical in most parts of Eritrea owing to a scarcity of adequate and quality controlled hydrological information. It was furthermore hypothesised that within reasonably similar climatic regions, median changes in soil moisture storage from the socalled "initial" catchment soil moisture conditions, i.e. LIS, were likely to be similar, while between different climatic regions median LISs were likely to be different. Additionally, it was postulated that climatic regions may be represented by a standard climate classification system. Based on the above hypotheses, the Koppen climate classification, which can be derived from mean monthly rainfall and temperature information, was first applied to the 712 relatively homogeneous hydrological response zones which had previously been identified in southern Africa. A high degree of homogeneity of median values of LIS, derived by the daily time step ACRU soil moisture budgeting model, was observed for zones occurring within each individual Koppen climate class (KCC) - this after a homogeneity test had been performed to check if zones falling in a specific KCC had similar values of median LIS. Further assessment within each KCC found in southern Africa then showed that a strong relationship existed between LIS and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP). This relationship was, however, different between KCCs. By developing regression equations, good simulations of median LIS from MAP were observed in each KCC, illustrating the potential application of the Koppen climate classification system as an indicator of regional median LIS, when only very basic monthly climatological information is available. The next critical task undertaken was to test whether the estimate of median LIS from MAP by regression equation for a specific Koppen climate class identified in southern Africa would remain similar for an identical Koppen climatic region in Eritrea. As already mentioned, LIS may be determined from daily time step hydrological soil moisture budget models such as ACRU model. The performance of the ACRU stormflow modelling approach was, therefore, first verified on an Eritrean gauged research catchment, viz. the Afdeyu, in order to have confidence in the use of values of LIS generated by it. A SCS-ACRU stormflow modelling approach was then tested on the same catchment by using the new approach of CN adjustment, termed the ACRU-Koppen method, and results were compared against stormflow volumes obtained using the SCS-AMC classes and the Hawkins' soil water budgeting procedures for CN adjustment, as well as when CNs remain unadjusted. Despite the relatively limited level of information on climate, soils and land use for the Afdeyu research catchment, the ACRU model simulated both daily and monthly flows well. By comparing the outputs generated from the SCS model when using the different methods of CN adjustment, the ACRU-Koppen method displayed better levels of performances than either of the other two SCS-based methods. A further statistical comparison was made among the ACRU, the SCS adjusted by ACRU-Koppen, the SCS adjusted by AMC classes and the unadjusted SCS models for the five highest stormflows produced from the five highest daily rainfall amounts of each year on the Afdeyu catchment. The ACRU model produced highly acceptable statistics from stormflow simulations on the Afdeyu catchment when compared to the SCS-based estimates. In comparing results from the ACRU-Koppen method to those from the SCS-AMC and unadjusted CN methods it was found that, statistically, the ACRU-Koppen performed much better than either of the other two SCS based methods. On the strength of these results the following conclusions were drawn: • Changes in soil moisture storage from so-called "initial" catchment soil moisture conditions, i.e. L1S, are similar in similar climatic regions; and • Using the ACRU-Koppen method ofCN adjustment, the SCS-SA model can, therefore, be adapted for application in Eritrea, for which Koppen climates can be produced from monthly rainfall and temperature maps. Finally, future research needs for improvements in the SCS-ACRU-Koppen (SAK) approach in light of data availability and the estimation ofL1S were identified. From the findings of this research and South African experiences, a first version of a "SCSEritrea" user manual based on the SAK modelling approach has been produced to facilitate its use throughout Eritrea. This user manual, although not an integral part of this dissertation, is presented in its entirety as an Appendix. A first Version of the SCS-Eritrea software is also included. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2004.