This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function for estimating spatial density showed that there is a 99% chance that a future vent will be located within a 3.6 x 109 m2 area about 20 kilometers north of Flagstaff. This area contains the location of the most recent eruption at Sunset Crater, suggesting that the model is a good predictor of future vent locations. A Monte Carlo analysis of potential vent locations (N = 7,769) showed that 3.5% of simulated vents generated lava flows that inundated Flagstaff, and 1.1% of simulated vents were located within the city limits. Based on the average recurrence rate of vents formed during the Brunhes chronozone, the aggregate probability of lava flow inundation in Flagstaff is 1.1 x 10-5 per year. This suggests that there is a need for the city to plan for lava flows and associated hazards, especially forest fires. Even though it is unlikely that the city will ever have to utilize such a plan, it is imperative that thorough mitigation and response plans are established now-- before the onset of renewed volcanic activity.

Since the 1980s, satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has been investigated for early warning and monitoring of marine oil spills to permit effective satellite surveillance in the marine environment. Automated detection of oil spills from satellite SAR intensity imagery consists of three steps: 1) Detection of dark spots; 2) Extraction of features from the detected dark spots; and 3) Classification of the dark spots into oil spills and look-alikes. However, marine oil spill detection is a very difficult and challenging task. Open questions exist in each of the three stages. In this thesis, the focus is on the first stage—dark spot detection. An efficient and effective dark spot detection method is critical and fundamental for developing an automated oil spill detection system. A novel method for this task is presented. The key to the method is utilizing the spatial density feature to enhance the separability of dark spots and the background. After an adaptive intensity thresholding, a spatial density thresholding is further used to differentiate dark spots from the background. The proposed method was applied to a evaluation dataset with 60 RADARSAT-1 ScanSAR Narrow Beam intensity images containing oil spill anomalies. The experimental results obtained from the test dataset demonstrate that the proposed method for dark spot detection is fast, robust and effective. Recommendations are given for future research to be conducted to ensure that this procedure goes beyond the prototype stage and becomes a practical application.

Since the 1980s, satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has been investigated for early warning and monitoring of marine oil spills to permit effective satellite surveillance in the marine environment. Automated detection of oil spills from satellite SAR intensity imagery consists of three steps: 1) Detection of dark spots; 2) Extraction of features from the detected dark spots; and 3) Classification of the dark spots into oil spills and look-alikes. However, marine oil spill detection is a very difficult and challenging task. Open questions exist in each of the three stages. In this thesis, the focus is on the first stage—dark spot detection. An efficient and effective dark spot detection method is critical and fundamental for developing an automated oil spill detection system. A novel method for this task is presented. The key to the method is utilizing the spatial density feature to enhance the separability of dark spots and the background. After an adaptive intensity thresholding, a spatial density thresholding is further used to differentiate dark spots from the background. The proposed method was applied to a evaluation dataset with 60 RADARSAT-1 ScanSAR Narrow Beam intensity images containing oil spill anomalies. The experimental results obtained from the test dataset demonstrate that the proposed method for dark spot detection is fast, robust and effective. Recommendations are given for future research to be conducted to ensure that this procedure goes beyond the prototype stage and becomes a practical application.

This study presents a probabilistic lava flow hazard assessment for the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the cities of Idaho Falls and Pocatello, Idaho. The impetus of this work is to estimate the conditional probability that a lava flow on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) will impact the areas of interest given the formation of a new volcanic vent in the region. A list of 288 eruptive events, derived from a previously published inventory of 506 surface and 32 buried vents, was created to reduce the biasing of spatial density maps towards eruptions with multiple dependent vents. Conditional probabilities of new vents and events occurring on the ESRP were modeled using the the Sum of Asymptotic Mean Squared Error (SAMSE) optimal pilot bandwidth estimator with a bivariate Gaussian kernel function. Monte Carlo analyses of potential eruption scenarios were performed using MOLASSES, a cellular automata fluid flow simulator. Results show that Idaho Falls is impacted <1% of the time for both the vent and event simulations; Pocatello is not impacted by any simulated flows. 25.45% of vent flows and 33.74% of event flows breach the boundaries of INL. 18.27%of vent and 25.85% of event simulations initiate on the INL property. Annual inundation probabilities of 1.06 x 10-4 for vent-based flows and 7.12 x 10-5 for event-based flows are reported for INL; annual probabilities of an eruptive center initiating on INL property are 7.60 x 10-5 for vents and 5.45 x 10-5 for events. All of these values exceed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s acceptable risk probability of 10-7 by several orders of magnitude.

La gestion du milieu marin pour de multiples usages est une problématique de plus en plus en complexe. La création d’aires marines protégées (AMP) a été désignée comme étant une stratégie efficace afin de concilier la conservation avec les autres usages. Cependant, pour atteindre les objectifs de conservation, un plan de gestion bien défini de même qu’un programme de suivi efficace doivent être instaurés. En 1998, le parc marin du Saguenay–Saint-Laurent (PMSSL) a été créé afin de protéger plusieurs écosystèmes important de l’Estuaire du Saint-Laurent. Une industrie d’observation en mer de baleines en pleine croissance était déjà établie dans la région, qui est également traversé par une voie de navigation commerciale importante. Treize espèces de mammifères marins sont présentes dans la région, parmi lesquelles, quatre espèces de rorquals sont le centre d’intérêt du présent travail : le petit rorqual (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), le rorqual commun (Balaenoptera physalus), le rorqual à bosse (Megaptera novaeangliae) et le rorqual bleu (Balaenoptera musculus). La réduction des risques de collision et des perturbations du comportement susceptibles d’entrainer des conséquences physiologiques constitue un des enjeux majeures pour la conservation des baleines dans cette région. Avant de s’intéresser aux impacts du trafic maritime, des questions de base doivent être étudiées: Combien de baleines utilisent le secteur? Où sont les zones de fortes concentrations? Pour répondre à ces questions, des données d’échantillonnage par distance le long de transect linéaire sur une période de quatre ans (2006-2009) ont été utilisées pour estimer la densité et l’abondance et pour construire un modèle spatiale de la densité (MSD). Les espèces les plus abondantes sont le petit rorqual (45, 95% IC = 34-59) et le rorqual commun (24, 95% IC=18-34), suivi du rorqual bleu (3, 95% IC=2-5) et du rorqual à bosse (2, 95% IC=1-4). Les modèles additifs généralisés ont été utilisées afin de modéliser le nombre d’individus observé par espèce en fonction des variables environnementales. Les MSD ont permis l’identification des zones de concentration de chaque espèce à l’intérieur des limites de la portion de l’estuaire maritime du PMSSL et à valider les abondances estimées à partir des recensements systématiques. De plus, ils ont validé la pertinence de la zone de protection marine de l’estuaire du Saint-Laurent proposée (ZPMESL) pour la conservation du rorqual bleu, une espèce en voie de disparition. Un exercice d’extrapolation a également été effectué afin de prédire les habitats du rorqual bleu à l’extérieur de la zone d’échantillonnage. Les résultats ont montré une bonne superposition avec des jeux de données indépendants. Malgré la nature exploratoire de cet exercice et dans l’attente de meilleures informations, il pourrait servir de base de discussion pour l’élaboration de mesures de gestion afin d’augmenter la protection de l’espèce. Ensuite, les systèmes d’informations géographiques ont été utilisés afin de vérifier le degré de chevauchement entre la navigation commerciale et les résultats des MSD de chaque espèce et l’exercice d’extrapolation. Les analyses ont identifiées les zones de forte cooccurrence entre les navires et les rorquals. Ces résultats démontrent la pertinence des mesures de gestion récemment proposées et ont mené à une recommandation d’ajustement de l’actuel corridor de navigation afin de diminuer le risque de collision. Finalement, le chevauchement avec l’industrie d’observation de baleines a été caractérisé avec des données d’un échantillonnage à partir de points terrestres conduit de 2008 à 2010. Bien que toutes les espèces de rorquals aient été suivies, seulement les résultats concernant les rorquals bleus et les rorquals à bosses sont présentés ici. Pour les rorquals bleus, 14 heures de données d’observation ont été analysées. Les rorquals bleus étaient exposés aux bateaux (<1 km), principalement les zodiacs commerciaux, dans 74 % des intervalles de surface (IS) analysés. L’exposition continue était de 2 à 19 IS et le nombre moyen de bateaux à l’intérieur d’un rayon de 1 km était 2.3 (±2.7, max=14). Lorsqu’en observation de l’animal focal, tous les bateaux commerciaux ont utilisé la zone à l’intérieur de 400 m, enfreignant ainsi le règlement qui prescrit une distance de retrait minimale de 400 m dans le cas d’espèces en voie de disparition. De plus, la variance du taux respiratoire de chaque individu était corrélée avec le pourcentage d’exposition au bateaux (0.73, p<0.05) suggérant une modification comportementale susceptible d’entrainer des conséquences physiologiques. Bien que le rorqual à bosse n’ait pas un statut de conservation critique, sont comportements en fait une cible importante de l’industrie d’observation. Un total de 50.4 heures d’observation du rorqual à bosse a été analysé. Les rorquals à bosse étaient exposés aux bateaux, principalement aux zodiacs commerciaux, pendant 78.5% du temps d’observation. Le nombre moyen de bateaux dans un rayon de 1 km était de 1.9 (±2.3, max=22). L’exposition cumulative aux activités d’observation de baleines peut avoir des conséquences à long terme pour les rorquals. L’application du règlement et des mesures pour augmenter la sensibilisation et le respect de la règlementation actuelle sont nécessaires. Des suggestions pour améliorer la règlementation actuelle sont proposées. Ce travail présente pour la première fois des estimés d’abondance pour l’aire d’étude, améliore les informations disponibles sur les zones de fortes concentrations, donne un appui à l’établissement d’un plan de zonage adéquat à l’intérieur des limites du PMSSL et souligne l’importance de l’établissement de la ZPMESL proposée. Par sa revue compréhensive de la question du trafic maritime en lien avec les rorquals présents dans l’estuaire, cette étude fournit des informations précieuses pour la gestion de ce système socio-écologique complexe. / Management of the marine environment for multiple usages has become increasingly complex. The creation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has been pointed out as a successful strategy for combining conservation with other uses. However, to attain conservation goals, a well-defined management plan and a robust monitoring program need to be set. In 1998, the Saguenay St. Lawrence Marine Park (SSLMP) was decreed to protect important ecosystems of the St. Lawrence River Estuary. A growing whale watching industry was already established in the area which is also crossed by an important shipping lane. Thirteen marine mammal species occur in the area, among them, four baleen species, which are the focus of the present work: minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and the blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus). Whales’ protection in this area of intensive marine traffic is of concern due to a high collision probability and induced behavioral and physiological changes. Before addressing the effects of the marine traffic, some basic questions needed to be answered: How many baleen whales use the area? Where are their core areas? To answer that, line-transect distance-sampling data collected over four years (2006-2009) were used to estimate density and abundance and to build a spatial density model (SDM). The most abundant species were minke (45, 95% CI=34-59) and fin whales (24, 95% CI=18-34), followed by blue (3, 95% CI=2-5) and humpback whales (2, 95% CI=1-4). Generalized additive models were used to model each species count as a function of space and environmental variables. The SDM allowed the identification of each species core area within the marine portion of the SSLMP, and corroborated the abundance estimates derived from design-based methods. In addition, it corroborated the relevance of the proposed St. Lawrence Estuary Marine Protected (SLEMPA) Area to the conservation of essential habitats of the endangered blue whale. An extrapolation exercise was performed to predict blue whales’ habitats outside the surveyed area. Despite its exploratory nature, the results showed a good match with independent data sets and in the lack of better information could guide the discussion of management measures to enhance species’ protection. Next, Geographic Information System capabilities were used to verify the degree of overlap between the navigation corridor and the resulting SDM of each species and the extrapolation model. The analysis highlighted areas of important co-occurrence of whales and ships, corroborated the adequacy of recently proposed management measures and resulted in a recommendation of adjustment to the current shipping lane in order to decrease collision risk. Finally, the overlap with the whale watching industry was characterized with data from a land-based survey conducted from 2008 to 2010. Although all baleen whale species were tracked, here only results of blue and humpback whales were presented. For blue whales, data from 14 hours of observation were analyzed. Whales were exposed to boats, mainly commercial zodiacs, in 74% of their surface intervals (SI). Continuous exposure ranged from 2 to 19 SI and the mean number of boats within a 1 km radius was 2.3 (±2.7, max=14). A complete lack of compliance with the current whale watching regulations was observed. Additionally, individual blow rate variance was correlated with percentage of exposure to boats (0.73, p<0.05). Although humpback whales do not have a critical conservation status, their intrinsic behaviour makes them a major target to the industry. A total of 50.4 hours of humpback whale observation was analysed. Whales were exposed to boats, mainly commercial zodiacs, during 78.5% of the observation time. The mean number of boats within a 1 km radius was 1.9 (±2.3, max=22). The cumulative exposure to whale watching can have long-term consequences for whales. Law enforcement and measures to raise awareness and compliance to current regulations are urgently needed. Suggestions to improve the current regulation were provided. The present work presents the first abundance estimates for the study area, refines the available information on baleen whales core areas, provides support to the establishment of an adequate zoning plan within the SSLMP and stresses the relevance of the SLEMPA. In addition it provides an in depth overview of the marine traffic issue and provides valuable information to support management of this complex socio-ecological system. / Thesis written in co-mentorship with Robert Michaud.

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