Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / There is a growing movement throughout the Department of Defense (DoD) towards the implementation of Network Centric Warfare (NCW). In an effort to transition to NCW, the Navy has fielded many different technologies. One system exploiting new technologies in the Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) domain is the Joint Fires Network/Tactical Exploitation System-Navy (JFN/TES-N), which was developed from the Army Tactical Exploitation System, (TES-A). This system was developed rapidly and uniquely for fleet deployment in accordance with the interim acquisition guidance signed by the Honorable Paul Wolfowitz. This guidance authorized Evolutionary Acquisition following a Spiral Development process in lieu of the "traditional" cold war process described in the DoD 5000 series publications. Assuming that (JFN/TES-N) will be viewed as a successful acquisition, several Navy personnel have stated that it may become the model for future C4I (and other) system acquisitions. This thesis seeks to help develop that model. The objectives of this thesis are: ʺ To examine whether the TES-N acquisition process is an appropriate model of Evolutionary Acquisition following a Spiral Development. ʺ To identify and make recommendations for changes or improvements to the TES-N acquisition program, so it can be used as a more appropriate model for Evolutionary Acquisition following a Spiral Development. This thesis concludes that Evolutionary Acquisition following a Spiral Development shown with the JFN/TES-N system is an acquisition policy that is appropriate for programs of the same size and scope, but larger more complex programs will not have as much success. Yet, in order for the JFN/TES-N program and future programs using Evolutionary Acquisition following a Spiral Development to succeed, changes have to be made in policies such as budgetary submissions, test and evaluation, policy, process, and training. / Ensign, United States Navy

The complexity of software development projects makes estimation and management very difficult. There is a need for improved cost estimation methods and new models of lifecycle processes other than the common waterfall process. This work has developed a new simulation model of the spiral development lifecycle as well as an approach for using simulation for cost and schedule estimation. The goal is to provide a tool that can analyze the effects of a spiral development process as well as a tool that illustrates the difficulties management faces in forecasting budgets at the beginning of a project which may encourage more realistic approaches to budgetary planning. A new discrete event process model of the incremental spiral development lifecycle approach was developed in order to analyze the effects this development approach has on the estimation process as well as cost and schedule for a project. The input data for the key variables of size, productivity, and defect injection rates in the model was based on analysis of Software Engineering Laboratory data and provided for analysis of the effects of uncertainty in early project estimates. The benefits of combining a separate system dynamics model with a discrete event process models was demonstrated as was the effects of turnover on the cost and schedule for a project. This work includes a major case study of a cancelled NASA software development project that experienced cost and schedule problems throughout its history. Analysis was performed using stochastic simulation with derived probability distributions for key software development factors. A system dynamics model of human resource issues was also combined with the process model to more thoroughly analyze the effects of turnover on a project. This research has demonstrated the benefits of using a simulation model when estimating to allow for more realistic budget and schedule determination including an interval estimate to help focus on the uncertainty of early estimates.