Erratic and highly variable catches in the South African chokka squid Loligo vulgaris reynaudii fishery, cause socio-economic hardship for the industry and uncertainty for resource managers. Catch forecasting can reduce this problem as it is believed that catch variability is strongly influenced by environmental factors. In this study, data were collected at varying temporal and spatial scales. Data for the hourly time-scale study were collected from 1996-1998, aboard commercial vessels, whilst for the longer time-scales, data were extracted for Kromme Bay (a single fishing area) from existing databases (1991-1998) that were comprised of compulsory catch returns and oceanographic data. The environment-catch relationship for chokka squid on the inshore spawning grounds was then investigated using multiple correlation and regression analysis, analysis of variance, contingency table analysis and cross-correlation statistical techniques. This simple, direct, 'black box' statistical approach was relatively successful in developing a predictive capability. On a short time-scale (hourly), the regression model accounted for 32% of the variability in catch, with turbidity the main determinant (13%). On a daily monthly time-scale, the best prediction model was on a monthly scale, accounting for 40% of the variability in catch. The principal determinant, bottom temperature anomaly (11 %), was found to lag one month forward. Seasonal and diel catch variations induced changes in the relative importance of turbidity, water temperature and wind direction on catches. A strong, positive relationship was found between easterly winds (which cause upwelling) and catch, particularly in summer. Catch rates, however, decreased with an increase in turbidity. The correlation between temperature and catch was generally negative, however, higher catches were associated with a temperature range of 13-18°C. Highest catch rates were associated with easterly winds, zero turbidity conditions and sea surface temperatures from 15.0-16.9°C. Selected case studies (in situ observations) suggested that upwelling and turbidity events act as environmental triggers for the initiation or termination of the spawning process, respectively. A holistic approach is required to improve predictive capability of chokka squid abundance. Although short-term predictability remains essential (i.e. hourly-scale), future research should concentrate on long-term prediction models (e.g., monthly time-scales) involving greater spatial variation, which are the most important for management.

The objective of this thesis is to analyse the management and redistribution policies implemented in the South African squid industry. This is done within the broader context of fisheries policies that have been implemented within the South African fishing industry as the squid industry has developed. The study therefore has an institutional basis, which reviews the development of institutional mechanisms as they have evolved to deal fisheries management problems. These mechanisms (which can either be formal or informal) consist of committees, laws and constitutions that have developed as society has progressed. Probably the most prominent of these, in terms of current fisheries policy, is the Marine Living Resources Act (MLRA) of 1998. The broad policy prescription of the MLRA basically advocates the sustainable utilisation of marine resources while outlining the need to restructure the fishing industry to address historical imbalances and to achieve equity. It is this broad objective that this thesis applies to the squid fishery. The primary means of achieving the above objective, within the squid industry, has been through the reallocation of permit rights. These rights also provide the primary means by which effort is managed. A disruption in the rights allocation process therefore has implications for resource management as well. Permits rights can be described as a form of use right or propertY right. These rights are structured according to their operational-level characteristics, or rules. Changing these rules can thus affect the efficiency or flexibility of a rights based system. This is important because initial reallocation of rights, by the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT), was based on an incomplete set of rights. This partly led to the failure of early redistribution attempts resulting in a "paper permit" market. Nevertheless, this thesis argues that redistribution attempts were based on ill-defined criteria that contributed to the failure described above. In addition to this the method through which redistribution was attempted is also questionable. This can be described as a weak redistribution strategy that did not account for all equity criteria (i.e. factors like capital ownership, employment or relative income levels). This thesis thus recommends, among other things, that an incentive based rights system be adopted and that the design of this system correctly caters of the operational-level rules mentioned above. In addition to this a strong redistribution, based on fishing capital, ownership, income and the transfer of skills, should be implemented. / KMBT_363 / Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in