Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 106-110).

Thesis (M.S.)--Worcester Polytechnic Institute. / Keywords: comprehensiblity; technical analysis; genetic programming; overfitting; cooperative coevolution. Includes bibliographical references (p. 82-87).

published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Master / Master of Philosophy

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This thesis presents three models of asset pricing involving non-competitive behavior and asymmetric information. In the first model, a risk averse investor with private information about dividends trades shares over an infinite time horizon with risk neutral uninformed agents. The informed investor trades strategically in equilibrium. The second model also involves an infinite time horizon, but all agents are risk averse and equally informed about dividends. Non-competitive behavior is exogenously specified; price takers trade shares with a strategic investor who accounts for the effects of her trades on the stock price. In this case, an endogenous information asymmetry arises in equilibrium. Closed form equilibria are derived for both models and implications for price dynamics are explored. While the first model constitutes a new extension of the multiperiod Kyle model of insider trading, the second model generates more interesting price dynamics. If the strategic investor manages a large mutual fund, significant risk premia and price volatility may arise in equilibrium. In fact, if mutual fund participation is sufficiently widespread, multiple equilibria may exist. The third model extends the multiperiod Kyle model to a case where the insider observes a noisy signal of the stock's terminal liquidation value. An equilibrium much like Kyle's is derived. Price tends toward value over time, and stock price volatility depends on both the drift and volatility of the insider's private signal. Like the Kyle model, the insider's trading activity leaves no detectable trace in trading volume, expected returns, or price volatility.

Using a system of multi-step equations, I examine the association between online rental searches and fundamental apartment real estate market variables namely, vacancy rates, rental rates and real estate asset price returns. I find that consumer real estate searches are significantly associated with the market fundamentals after controlling for known determinants of these variables. In particular, I show that apartment rentals related online searches are endogenously and contemporaneously associated with reduced vacancy rate. However, the association between the searches and rental rates is not significantly detected. The searches are contemporaneously associated with positive return on the appraised values of multifamily assets. There is some evidence that the searches are fundamentally associated with REIT returns in the short run and that REIT investors watch the online search trends to inform their stock pricing decisions.

This thesis examines the predictive ability of models for forecasting inflation and financial market volatility. Emphasis is put on evaluation of forecasts and the usage of large data sets. Variety of models are used to forecast inflation, including diffusion indices, artificial neural networks, and traditional linear regressions. Financial market volatility is forecast using various GARCH-type and high-frequency based models. High-frequency data are also used to obtain ex-post estimates of volatility, which is then used to evaluate forecasts. All forecast are evaluated using recently proposed techniques that can account for data snooping bias, nested, and nonlinear models.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2006. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.