published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

巨災權益賣權(CatEPut option) 是種常見的與風險掛鉤的證券(risk-linked security) ，它經常被用來對沖巨災風險，在這篇文章中，我們在隨機利息率和隨機波動率的條件下對巨災權益實權進行定價。我們使用了高維傅利葉變換的方法來進行定價，并得到了巨災權益賈權價格的顯式表達，數據實驗的結果顯示，我們的定價公式和方法是高效和精確的。此外，我們還發現隨機利息率和隨機波動率對巨災權益賣權的價格有很大影響。 / The catastrophic equity put (CatEPut) options which serve as a kind of risklinked securities are quite popular in hedging catastrophic risk. In this thesis, the CatEPut options are priced with the stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility (SISV). We use a two-dimensional Fourier transform over the log price and the catastrophic loss to derive the closed-form CatEPut option price. The numerical examples show that our pricing formula and method are efficient and accurate. We also find that the price of the CatEPut options are greatly in uenced by the stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Li, Yiran. / "September 2012." / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 54-55). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Abstract in Chinese --- p.ii / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Contents --- p.v / List of Tables --- p.vii / List of Figures --- p.viii / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- The model --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1. --- The model of CatEPut options under risk-neutral measure --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2. --- Change to the forward measure --- p.7 / Chapter 3. --- Pricing CatEPut using “conditioning on the catastrophic lossmethod --- p.10 / Chapter 4. --- Pricing CatEPut using Fourier transform --- p.15 / Chapter 5. --- Numerical experiments --- p.26 / Chapter 5.1 --- The FFT algorithm --- p.26 / Chapter 5.2 --- The impact of the stochastic interest rate and the stochastic volatility --- p.27 / Chapter 5.3 --- The advantage of the Fourier transform method --- p.36 / Chapter 6. --- Conclusions --- p.41 / Chapter A. --- Measure change to risk neutral measure Q --- p.43 / Chapter B. --- Proof of integrability --- p.48 / Bibliography --- p.53

Thesis (PhD)--Macquarie University, Division of Economic and Financial Studies, Dept. of Statistics, 2008. / Bibliography: p. 73-77. / Introduction -- Lévy processes used in option pricing -- Option pricing for Lévy processes -- Option pricing based on empirical characteristic functions -- Performance of the five models on historical data -- Conclusions -- References -- Appendix A. Proofs -- Appendix B. Supplements -- Appendix C. Matlab programs. / Pricing problems of financial derivatives are among the most important ones in Quantitative Finance. Since 1973 when a Nobel prize winning model was introduced by Black, Merton and Scholes the Brownian Motion (BM) process gained huge attention of professionals professionals. It is now known, however, that stock market log-returns do not follow the very popular BM process. Derivative pricing models which are based on more general Lévy processes tend to perform better. --Carr & Madan (1999) and Lewis (2001) (CML) developed a method for vanilla options valuation based on a characteristic function of asset log-returns assuming that they follow a Lévy process. Assuming that at least part of the problem is in adequate modeling of the distribution of log-returns of the underlying price process, we use instead a nonparametric approach in the CML formula and replaced the unknown characteristic function with its empirical version, the Empirical Characteristic Functions (ECF). We consider four modifications of this model based on the ECF. The first modification requires only historical log-returns of the underlying price process. The other three modifications of the model need, in addition, a calibration based on historical option prices. We compare their performance based on the historical data of the DAX index and on ODAX options written on the index between the 1st of June 2006 and the 17th of May 2007. The resulting pricing errors show that one of our models performs, at least in the cases considered in the project, better than the Carr & Madan (1999) model based on calibration of a parametric Lévy model, called a VG model. --Our study seems to confirm a necessity of using implied parameters, apart from an adequate modeling of the probability distribution of the asset log-returns. It indicates that to precisely reproduce behaviour of the real option prices yet other factors like stochastic volatility need to be included in the option pricing model. Fortunately the discrepancies between our model and real option prices are reduced by introducing the implied parameters which seem to be easily modeled and forecasted using a mixture of regression and time series models. Such approach is computationaly less expensive than the explicit modeling of the stochastic volatility like in the Heston (1993) model and its modifications. / Mode of access: World Wide Web. / x, 111 p. ill., charts