published_or_final_version / abstract / Business / Master / Master of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Statistics / Master / Master of Philosophy

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investment. June 2017 / This research report explores how various macroeconomic surprises impact on individual stock returns in South Africa. The focus of the study is on the individual constituent stocks of the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index listed during the period January 2005 to December 2015. This report employs an event study and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) analysis approach to provide comprehensive insights into the relationship between the macroeconomic surprises and the individual stock returns in South Africa. This study closely mirrors a previous study conducted by Gupta and Reid (2013) which explored the impact of five macroeconomic surprises on general stock market indices (ALSI and JSE Top 40) and industry-specific stock returns in South Africa. However, in the interests of completeness and robustness, there are a few material differences and additional innovations introduced in this report. The event study results show that individual stock returns in South Africa are highly sensitive to GDP growth and CA surprises. Upon immediate impact, the GDP growth shocks cause negative stock returns indicating that initially market participants have a general dislike for the surprise element in GDP growth surprise announcements. However, post immediate impact, the stock returns increase and remain positive in line with widely hypothesized economic theory. In addition to GDP growth and CA surprises, the BVAR analysis indicates that USFed shocks have significant dynamic effects on individual stock returns in South Africa. The study finds that individual banking stocks and resource stocks are significantly sensitive to REPO surprises, whilst individual retail, property and consumer goods stocks are very responsive to GDP growth shocks. / MT2017

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg 2014. / The application of agent based modelling in nance allows market experiments to be undertaken which would normally be prohibitive due to cost, complexity and other factors. Agent based models use simple behaviour and interaction to produce complex outcomes. We introduce the requirements of an agent based market simulator based on protocol stipulated by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The requirements are then translated into a technical design. This design is implemented using the Microsoft .NET framework. The product of this design and creation approach is a market simulator which is then used to run three simulations where different agent behaviour is demonstrated. The approach and results of the simulations are documented to show possible use cases of the simulator.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017. / The extent to which the liquidity has an impact on stock return continues to be an eagerly researched topic. The effect on liquidity on the return of stocks has been a greatly debated subject on the capital market theory. The thesis looks at the impact of liquidity on the stock indices return of eight frontier markets. The paper uses two methods to estimate the regression namely, unbalanced dynamic panel Generalised Method of Moments and Fixed Effect Model. An analysis on factors affecting liquidity was done and turnover ratio, Amivest ratio and Amihud ratio were used as a measure for liquidity. The correlation between stock return and the liquidity measure was mixed; with turnover ratio having a negative correlation. Amivest ratio has positive relationship consistent with the risk premium and was found to be significant. However, the correlation on the Amihud ratio was not consistent with the liquidity premium as it was found to be positive. Although negatively correlated to return, the turnover ratio was found to be insignificant. / MT 2017

Thesis (M.Com. (Finance))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2016. / Could not copy abstract

A research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree M.Com. Masters (Finance) in the School of Economic and Business Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg / This study empirically investigates the existence of the Samuelson Hypothesis in South African markets. The Samuelson Hypothesis states that the volatility of futures contracts increase as the expiration of the contracts approaches. It is an important phenomenon to account for when setting margins, creating hedging strategies and valuing options on futures. The study utilizes daily closing prices of agricultural and non-agricultural futures contracts for a period varying from 2002 to 2015. In total, eleven contracts were examined over this period, yet only one (White Maize) consistently shows support for the Samuelson Hypothesis. The Negative Covariance and State Variable Hypothesis were tested, but could not provide an alternative explanation for the lack of relationship between the time to maturity and volatility of futures contracts. / MT2017

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Management in Finance and Investments in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand , 2016 / We use a comprehensive HedgeNews Africa data set from January 2007 to October 2016 to examine the performance of South African Hedge Funds in relation to JSE All share Index and All Bond Composite Index. We do so using Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama and French three-factor model and four factor model. Research on South African hedge funds are scarce, which motivate this research and in the light of the new regulation that provide for two categories of hedge funds, namely Qualified Investor hedge funds and Retail Investors hedge funds, to see how ordinary investor can benefit from this unique industry. The results show that South African hedge fund have low correlation with the All Bond Composite Index, but do not outperform the JSE All Share Index. We also find that South African hedge fund outperforms the All Bond Composite Index. We further test whether South African hedge fund managers have market timing ability and find that they do not have any significant market timing ability. / MT2017

Thesis (M.Com. (Accounting))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Accountancy, 2017 / Research into corporate governance has shown that there are a number of factors that influence company performance, one of them being ownership structure. The objective of this study is to determine how ownership structure affects the performance of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Five categories of shareholders were identified namely, managerial shareholders, institutional investors, family shareholders, government shareholders and foreign shareholders. Some shareholders of a company may be entirely passive whereas others may play a more active role in the company or perform an important monitoring service. The various motivations and abilities of the different types of shareholders may directly impact their ability to influence the major corporate decisions of the company that will ultimately impact the performance of the company. Using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) as performance measures this study investigates the effect of ownership structure on the performance of 143 companies from the year 2004 to 2014. The results of the study reveal that of the five different categories of shareholders identified it was only managerial shareholders and institutional shareholders that had a significant impact on a company’s performance / GR2018

A 50% research report to be submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of: MASTER OF COMMERCE (FINANCE) UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND / Several studies have assessed the forward-looking characteristic of share prices and confirmed their resultant capability as leading indicators of economic activity, especially in advanced economies. Contention however exists when evaluating the role of stock markets as leading indicators for less developed countries. This study examines the validity of the stock market as a leading indicator of economic activity in South Africa using quarterly time-series data for the period January 1992 to June 2014. Causality and cointegration between the JSE All Share Index against Real GDP and Real Industrial Production is evaluated by employing Granger-causality tests and the Johansen cointegration procedure. The empirical investigation indicates that unidirectional causality exists between the nominal and real stock indices and economic activity in South Africa, and confirms a long-run relationship between the JSE and GDP and Industrial Production. Therefore, similar to the study by Auret and Golding (2012), in a South African context, the stock market is in fact a leading indicator of economic activity. / MT2017