Thesis (M.Com. (Accounting))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Accountancy, 2017. / This study investigates whether there is a significant difference between the capital structures of firms listed on the JSE’s main board and those listed on the AltX. The factors influencing the differences are also explored in detail. Non-financial firms listed on the JSE and AltX respectively between 2011 and 2015 were chosen for the study. A panel data regression model was used and five measures of leverage were tested. The findings indicate that the exchange on which a firm is listed has an impact on its capital structure, with firms listed on the AltX having significantly higher levels of leverage than those listed on the JSE’s main board. In support of the pecking order theory, AltX firms are found to be more likely to draw on their internal funds as a first source of finance, even though they are generally less profitable than JSE firms and have less internal funds available. Moreover, AltX firms are found to be more reliant on more accessible short term financing than JSE firms, making them more susceptible to liquidity risks. This higher risk is congruent with the finding that the availability of tangible assets to offer as collateral appears to be a more significant determinant of leverage for AltX firms. The AltX was established to support growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) by enabling access to finance. Thus despite the establishment of the AltX, SMEs still face considerable constraints to accessing capital. Keywords: Capital structure, AltX, JSE, SME, information asymmetry / GR2018

While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EHM) has been widely accepted as robust by many researchers in the field of capital markets, the hypothesis’ robustness has been under increased scrutiny and question lately. In the light of the concerns over the robustness of the EMH, the weak form efficiency of the JSE is tested. Stock returns used in the analysis were controlled for thin trading and it was discovered that once returns are controlled for thin trading, they are independent of each other across time. Some of the previous studies found the JSE to be inefficient in the weak form but this research found that the JSE is efficient in the weak form. A comparison is also made between the JSE and four other African stock markets and the JSE is found to be more efficient than the other markets. The developments on the JSE, which have improved information dissemination as well as the efficiency of trading, contributed to the improvement of the JSE’s efficiency. The improvement in operational efficiency and turnover from the late 1990s has also made a major contribution to the improvement in the weak form efficiency of the JSE. Theory proposes that if markets are efficient then professional investment management is of little value if any; hence the position of professional investment managers in efficient markets is investigated. Although the JSE is found to be efficient, at least in the weak form, it is argued that achieving efficiency does not necessarily make the investment manager’s role obsolete. Investment managers are needed even when the market can be proved to be efficient.

Whether investor sentiment has any authority over financial markets has long been a topic of discussion in the field of finance. This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment and share returns in South Africa. Determining this relationship will add to the existing work which has documented important determinants of share returns on the stock exchange in South Africa, as well adding to the inconclusive link between sentiment and the South African financial markets. Does sentiment influence share returns or do share returns influence sentiment? Using quarterly data for the period 1996-2010, the study makes use of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index as a proxy for investor sentiment, and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to represent the South African financial markets. A regression analysis was conducted along with granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions in order to determine the nature of this relationship. The results showed that investor sentiment has a statistically significant relationship with share returns in South Africa. However, sentiment is only able to account for a very small portion of the variation in returns, with returns able to account for a larger portion of the variation in sentiment. Therefore investor sentiment is not a suitable predictor of share returns in South Africa. In addition, granger-causality tests indicate that returns are actually the leading indicator, suggesting that changes in South African investors’ confidence levels occur following changes in the state of the JSE. The limitations of the study include the infrequent nature of the sentiment measure used, thereby failing to capture important changes in sentiment and their immediate impact on financial markets. In addition, the sentiment of foreign investors must be taken into account due to the large foreign investment in the JSE.

An event study is an economic tool of analysis that has begun to gain popularity in recent empirical literature. It is a technique that gives a researcher the opportunity to map out the reaction of a firm's stock to an event, usually making use of daily or monthly data. However, up to this point, event study methodology has generally been applied to more traditional phenomena capable of affecting equity value, such as dividend and macroeconomic policy announcements, and there have only been a few exceptions to this. This study looks at what impact the tragic shootings at Lonmin mine in Marikana on August 16th 2012 had on the share prices of platinum mining firms based in South Africa using event study methodology. It makes use of the technique to investigate how the share prices responded to the tragedy over a number of trading days, including the day of the shootings. To be best of our knowledge, no attempt has been made to analyse the impact on share prices using events of this nature. For the investigation, daily returns data was used for each firm. The abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns to each were then calculated and compared with their respective expected returns in order to determine whether investors in the shares of that particular firm reacted positively, negatively or not at all. The evidence found suggests that tragedies of this nature are capable of influencing share prices in the same manner as more traditional economic phenomena. Overall, only one firm was found to have been negatively affected by the shootings in a persistent manner, while the shares of the other firms examined reacted in a manner that was positive overall, but varied according to individual firm characteristics such as size. These finding conformed to our a priori expectations. In addition, the results also confirm the benefits of applying event study methodology to a wide variety of phenomena that fall outside the boundaries usually associated with business.

The day-of-the-week effect in share prices is one of the most extensively researched anomalies, especially in developed markets. However, emerging African stock markets have received little attention in this regard. This study breaks new ground in using non-parametric tests directly on skewness and kurtosis to examine whether the day-of-he-week effect exists in nine listed stock market sector indices of the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (JSE). Different day-of-the-week effects were found to be present in the statistical moments of returns of these nine JSE sectors

This study investigates the existence of the value premium in South Africa’s equity market, and tests extrapolation as a possible explanation for it. The value premium refers to the widely reported superior performance of share price returns of value companies compared to growth companies. The value premium represents an anomaly in mainstream rational finance theory, because it should not persist, unless it could be explained as the result of some composite form of risk. What is highly vexing is the fact that the value premium not only persists in most financial markets over a long period, but that the risk explanation cannot be upheld convincingly. This contributed to the rise of behavioral finance, an approach which introduces psychological factors to provide new explanations for financial phenomena. The behavioral finance explanation for the value premium observation is extrapolation (the tendency to project recent experience too far into the future). This study applies propositions and methods from behavioral finance to investigate the South African equity market. The existence of a value premium in South Africa was investigated by using twenty-nine years’ worth of accounting and share price data. The study employed one- and two-dimensional tests for portfolio formation, and tracked share price returns for up to five years after portfolio formation. The results indicated that a statistically and economically significant value premium existed in South Africa for the period between 1972 and 2001. Extrapolation as a potential explanation for the value premium observation was investigated by applying internationally used methods. Extrapolation was found to provide a robust explanation for the South African value premium.

A research report submitted to The School of Accountancy, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Commerce in Accounting / The role and importance of a company’s CEO has become an increasingly important topic of research. The executive leadership has an important role to play in defining the strategy of the firm and its ability to compete. The value relevance of the CEO of a company and thus any changes pertaining thereto is understood to be due to developments in information technology and reporting requirements. This characterizes an information environment whereby investors are better equipped at making more informed investment decisions. The current business has become increasingly more competitive and volatile. In response to this, market participants place greater value on the importance of the CEO of the company. The CEO of a company may possess the ability to lever the company above its competitors through the development and implementation of company strategy. This research report assesses how market participants react in response to CEO appointment announcements using a sample of 105 announcements using an event study methodology. The value relevance pertaining hereto can be ascertained by observing the abnormal returns of the company’s share price on the date of the announcement. In furtherance of this assessment, the sample is disaggregated in accordance to event specific, firm-specific and non-event specific factors. Prior research suggests that this analysis facilitates more robust inferences to be made on how market participants react to CEO appointment announcements. In both Africa and South Africa, a strong body of literature is yet to be established on this effect. In general, findings display significant market reactions in response to the CEO change, thus suggesting that market participants perceive the CEO change as a significant event in the life of the firm. On the day of the event strong positive abnormal returns were generating thereby indicating that investors react positively to the appointment of a new CEO. However, the negative cumulative abnormal returns displayed in the periods before and after the event can be interpreted as the contrary. In addressing these conflicting views, the analysis of share performance in relation to firm-specific, event-specific and non-event related factors proves useful. The findings in this part of the section explain that negative returns are due to increased uncertainty over the future of the company, the positive returns on announcement date are found to be strongly associated with the type of successor appointed. These findings further reveal market participants react significantly strongly to a CEO change as seen by high negative cumulative abnormal returns. These findings contextualize how the value attached to CEOs by market participants vary in relation to different conditions. / MT2017

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016 / This study investigates how interest rates impact the South African Stock market. We investigate how the selected interest rates proxies predict the level of the FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns. The vector auto-regression (VAR) model was estimated and interpreted, based on the monthly data from June 1995 to September 2014. Using tools such as Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition, we found that the selected variables did not significantly influence the FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns. Consequently, these variables are not useful as predictive tools for the South African stock market returns. / MT2017

A research report presented in partial fulfillment (50%) of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce in Business Economics (Finance) in the School of Economic and Business Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg September 2017 / Utilising the seminal work of Sloan (1996) this study investigates the accrual anomaly in South Africa. Utilising all firms listed on the All Share Index (ALSI) for the period 2002 to 2016, this study employs various tests surrounding the accrual anomaly. A regression analysis highlights a low persistence of earnings and the popular Mishkin (1983) test fails to prove a sufficient market reaction following changes in earnings. Accruals could pre-empt dramatic changes in future earnings but the observed stock price adjustment was only implicit in firms that suffered a drop in earnings. Additionally, the presence of post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) meant the market reaction following an earning’s announcement was gradually reflected in the stock price. The accrual anomaly relies on an overreaction following an earning’s surprise in the month that financials are released. All the previously mentioned meant that a simple fundamental-based (cash flow) investment strategy far outperformed a strategy based on earnings’ fixation (accruals). This study failed to find conclusive evidence of the accrual anomaly on the JSE. / MT 2018

A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce (M .Com (Finance) in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2018 / This research seeks to better understand the determinants of fund performance in a South African context. It will focus extensively on fund size, past performance, fees, and expense ratios and their relationship with performance. While other research has shown an inverse relationship between fees and performance, it seems divided on the relationship between fund size and performance in various markets. Due to the high regulatory environment, asset managers in South Africa face multiple restrictions that have limited their investible universe. The results presented in this research show that funds in South Africa exhibit the “Hot Hands” phenomenon as well as it documents the negative relationship between fees and performance for South African funds. Lastly, results show a positive relationship between fund size and performance where funds in South Africa enjoy economies of scale. / XL2019