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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

The effects of incorporating 0-500 m SRH into the Violent Tornado Parameter

Roberts, Jay Palmer 09 August 2022 (has links)
Between 2011-2021, violent tornadoes accounted for an average of 65% of all tornado-related fatalities. The Violent Tornado Parameter (VTP), created in 2018, attempts to address this forecast problem but has issues with false alarms. Storm Relative Helicity has historically been used in tornado forecasting. Recent studies have shown the 0-500 m effective layer SRH (ESRH) has skill in discerning significantly tornadic events from those that are not. This study explored the effects of incorporating 0-500 m ESRH into the VTP and issues relating to the parameter’s false alarm rate by examining RUC/RAP forecast soundings for 302 U.S. tornadic events (83 violent, 122 strong, 97 weak) from 2011 to 2020, along with test data from 2021. Overall, the study found that 0-500 m ESRH has skill in forecasting violent tornadoes, and that both the 0-3 km MLCAPE and 0-3 km Lapse Rate terms raised the parameter’s false alarm rate.

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