For over a decade, we have heard alarming statements about the spread of cyber weapons from senior policymakers and experts. Yet, the dynamics of cyber proliferation are still under-studied and under-theorized. This study offers a theoretical and empirical account of what causes the spread and restraint of cyber weapons and argues that the world is not at the brink of mass cyber proliferation. Whilst almost forty states are exploring and pursuing the development of cyber weapons, I indicate that only few have so far acquired a meaningful capability. This is due both to supply and demand factors. On the supply-side, most states have a latent capacity to develop relatively simple offensive cyber capabilities, but are unable to develop sophisticated cyber weapons. Moreover, the incentives for knowledge transfer and thus exporting offensive cyber capabilities between states are weak. On the demand-side, I show that national security considerations do not provide the best explanation of variance. Instead, domestic politics and prestige considerations are paramount. Moreover, and unlike nuclear proliferation, I argue that it is not the possession of cyber weapons but the intention of possession signalled through visible initiatives which matters. Ultimately, I note that cyber weapons can have strategic value - but only under certain conditions.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / This thesis defines the strategic utility of Special Operation Forces (SOF), identifies why SOF only provide limited strategic utility, and presents an operational concept for the reorganization, alignment, and employment of SOF to overcome these shortf alls. The thesis is presented in a deductive manner that argues that SOF were designed for strategic purposes, and leads the reader to conclude that reformation must occur for SOF to provide strategic utility and meet their intent. SOF would be in an optimal position to meet their organizational intent by becoming a fifth armed service within the Department of Defense (DoD). Through the creation of mission-based units and a holistic employment strategy, SOF would become a strategic instrument capability of assisting national decision -makers in blending the elements of national power. Finally, the thesis concludes with additional required areas for research to make this concept become a reality, but that are beyond the scope of this study. / Major, United States Army