This thesis examines dynamic relationships between inflation and monetary policy in a sample of African economies using quarterly data over the period 1980:01 to 2012:04. The literature on inflation dynamics and monetary policy focuses on developed economies, with little attention devoted to the African economies, which is potentially explained by the fact that in the past monetary policy played second fiddle because of fiscal policy dominance following episodes of high inflation and stabilization policies that occurred in the 1980's. This thesis fills an important gap in assessing African's monetary policy. The thesis predominantly uses the Vector-Autoregression (VAR) framework to examine the monetary policy frameworks of the African economies. The thesis finds that an interest rate shock on average explain a more significant proportion of the variance in the output gap and inflation than the exchange rate, in terms of analysing the decomposition of shocks to the economy. This shows a shift in the monetary policy focus away from exchange rate management to interest rate targeting as the African economies have become more market oriented. The monetary policy reveal strong asymmetric responses with respect to the macroeconomic variables when inflation exceeds its threshold value. The analysis suggests that monetary policy in the African economies is regime-dependent, propagated through the inflation thresholds, such that the authorities strongly implement policy changes when inflation goes beyond a certain threshold. The thesis reveals that by taking into account the prior belief of the monetary authorities, it helps produce better estimates of the performance of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, as it combines prior information with the sampling information which is contained in the data. The overall novelty of the thesis is that some African economies are adopting inflation targeting policies instead of exchange rate management. It is imperative that the subsequent inflation targeting frameworks will achieve monetary policy objectives for the African economies and the use of interest rate management should be continued.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / State social security transfers for families existed in South Africa only in the form of state maintenance grants, which paid up to R700 to single parents. The system was not appropriate in the South African context, being racially biased and financially unsustainable. The Department of Welfare - following in principle the recommendations of the "Lund report" - introduced with effect from 1 April 1998 a child support grant which is payable to the primary care-givers of children, regardless of their family status. The level of benefit was set at RIOOper month per child for children up to the age of six (incl.). The Department declared that 48% or 3 million children should be targeted. At the same time, the SMGs are to be phased out over a three year period. This research was conducted between November 1995 and March 1998. The analysis of the different suggestions during the policy process and the final policy is based on two pillars: • A situation analysis of the living conditions of South Africa's children on the basis of a composite index. • An evaluation of policy scenarios on the basis of a microsimulation model. The index tries to give a complex picture of the living conditions of children by looking at the financial situation, housing, health, and employment opportunities of the households the children are living in. The analysis reveals that nearly 70% of South Africa's children up to the age of six (incl.) live below the poverty line as defined. A further analysis of the household structure indicates that poorer children are likely to live in larger households. The overall policy shift from a support of single parent families to children in poverty regardless of their family status is espoused. However, the microsimulation model which analyses the impact of different factors like the 'level of benefit', the 'age-cohort', the 'means-test', and the 'administrative requirements', reveals that there are still serious flaws in the current policy. Due to the fact that the means-test is based on the total household income, nearly 40% of the children living below the poverty line are excluded. In addition, the administration needs urgent attention as its capacity is the decisive factor in the success of the programme. The thesis calculates that in the next five years up to R2 billion less will be spent on poor children and the goal of reaching 3 million children will not be achieved, if the problems identified are not addressed. The thesis develops an alternative suggestion to the current policy. While microsimulation has become quite a standard procedure in the analysis of social policies in industrialised countries, there is so far no application in developing countries. It is hoped that by taking this policy analysis as a case-study, this thesis is a step towards the introduction of this method here. Microsimulation models provide important information to enhance the transparency and accountability of policy processes. In this case, civil society was able to challenge Government's decision on a very informed basis, to put pressure on decision makers successfully, and to make workable alternative suggestions. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that against Government's promise redistribution does not take place. Instead a shift towards a more neo-liberal approach in social policy is observed.