¡@¡@Taiwan lacks of natural resources and highly industrialized at the same time. International trade activities are the most crucial way to obtain raw materials for production and channels to sell Taiwan¡¦s output to the rest of the world. Therefore, the fluctuation of real exchange rate influences exports and imports just as double blades sword, and subtly causes welfare issue. In this paper, we combine traditional productivity argument proposed by Balassa-Samuelson and recent literatures focusing on sticky price both to cause real exchange rate in the long-run using Taiwan as a case. Using structural VAR model to decompose unobservable shocks, change in productivity between domestic economy and the trading blocs is still the most influencing factor to explain the fluctuation of real exchange rate of Taiwan.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar empiricamente os principais fatores condicionantes do crescimento econômico brasileiro, no período de 1970 a 2010, a partir de um modelo de autoregressão vetorial estrutural seguindo especificação neoclássica da teoria macroeconômica de crescimento. Para isso, o estudo inicia-se com o enfoque teórico dos modelos de crescimento econômico e prossegue com a análise empírica do caso brasileiro utilizando o ferramental de séries temporais. Os principais resultados empíricos obtidos sugerem que: (i) a formação bruta de capital fixo, o capital humano e o grau de abertura da economia são instrumentos importantes de formulação de políticas de crescimento econômico; (ii) há um efeito da curva J na dinâmica da taxa de câmbio; e (iii) há diferenças nas elasticidades de curto e longo prazo, promovendo diferentes abordagens para políticas de planejamento econômico entre as variáveis. / This research aims to empirically analyze the main conditioning factors of the Brazilian economic growth for the period 1970-2010 using a structural vector autoregression model following a neoclassical specification for the macroeconomic theory of economic growth. In order to do it, the analysis starts with the theoretic approach of the economic growth models and part to the empirical approach to the Brazilian case, using time series analysis. The mean partial empirical results suggest that: (i) gross fixed capital formation, followed by human capital and trade openness are important instruments of economic growth policy; (ii) there is an J curve e_ect on the dynamics of the exchange rate; and (iii) there are di_erences in the short and long-run elasticities, promoting di_erent approaches to economic planning policies between the variables.

Because of economic globalization and prosperous growing international trade, the problem of international currency exchange derived from these situations becomes more serious. The exchange rate is the index for measuring the currency changing rate internationally, and the changing of exchange rate regime from fixed to floating will cause the volatility of exchange rate fluctuation. For Taiwan, a small open economy, and its exporting intensive policy, it is more difficult to avoid this impact. Therefore, it is meaningful to study the fluctuating of exchange rate. The study compares the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations between Taiwan and North America, Europe and Asia in the long run over the period 1981:1 to 2003:4. The theoretical model of Clarida and Gali (1994) is used to observe related output, real effective exchange rate, and domestic money supply which are variables of this study. In empirical, the unit root is used to confirm that the unit root is exist and through the cointegration test to make sure that there is no relation of cointergration. And then, make use of the way provided by Blanchard and Quah (1989), using the long run restriction to construct the structural VAR model, and impulse response function and variance decomposition is derived to analyze the problem. Through the empirical result, we can find that when Taiwan compare to North America and Europe, the source of long run real exchange rate fluctuation comes from demand shock, and this result is the same as Lastrapes (1992), Clarida and Gali (1994) and Chen and Wu (1997). For countries in Asia, which are developing countries mainly, the source of long run real exchange rate fluctuation comes from supply shock, and it explains the importance of effect of output .Besides, the long term monetary neutrality come into existence in each region, empirically.

We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size of the fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multiplier estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar empiricamente os principais fatores condicionantes do crescimento econômico brasileiro, no período de 1970 a 2010, a partir de um modelo de autoregressão vetorial estrutural seguindo especificação neoclássica da teoria macroeconômica de crescimento. Para isso, o estudo inicia-se com o enfoque teórico dos modelos de crescimento econômico e prossegue com a análise empírica do caso brasileiro utilizando o ferramental de séries temporais. Os principais resultados empíricos obtidos sugerem que: (i) a formação bruta de capital fixo, o capital humano e o grau de abertura da economia são instrumentos importantes de formulação de políticas de crescimento econômico; (ii) há um efeito da curva J na dinâmica da taxa de câmbio; e (iii) há diferenças nas elasticidades de curto e longo prazo, promovendo diferentes abordagens para políticas de planejamento econômico entre as variáveis. / This research aims to empirically analyze the main conditioning factors of the Brazilian economic growth for the period 1970-2010 using a structural vector autoregression model following a neoclassical specification for the macroeconomic theory of economic growth. In order to do it, the analysis starts with the theoretic approach of the economic growth models and part to the empirical approach to the Brazilian case, using time series analysis. The mean partial empirical results suggest that: (i) gross fixed capital formation, followed by human capital and trade openness are important instruments of economic growth policy; (ii) there is an J curve e_ect on the dynamics of the exchange rate; and (iii) there are di_erences in the short and long-run elasticities, promoting di_erent approaches to economic planning policies between the variables.

Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. These indices seek to represent the market’s expectation of realized volatility over the coming month, based on the prices of options traded on each underlying equity index. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exists that examine the spillover between these volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically Hong Kong, plays a central role in implied volatility spillover during and after the 2008 financial crisis.

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Yes / We examine the possible interactions of the financial cycle and fiscal position for G7 economies. We employ the innovative aggregate financial and fiscal stress indexes which are able to depict the perplexed nature of modern economies. A SVAR model is developed to investigate the effects of both financial and fiscal stress on key macroeconomic variables. The results, using two different identification methods, reveal that financial and fiscal shocks affect negatively the key macroeconomic variables. Additionally, there is a weak feedback effect from a financial shock to fiscal sector and vice versa.

- 4 - Abstract In this research we explored role of financial variables in macro modeling and their performance in case of Mongolia. We employed two different models for assessing performance of financial variables in macro modeling, structural VAR model and small scale macro model (SSMM). In doing so, we performed different analysis such as impulse response for seeing how financial variables fit into system and forecasting performance for how accurate model performs after introducing financial variables. So our result suggested that financial variables have substantial role on macro modeling and inclusion of financial variable is performing very good result in terms of forecasting in both models. JEL Classification C01, C51, C53, E12, E52, G17 Keywords Financial markets, Small scale macro model, Structural VAR, Impulse response, Mean absolute errors. Author's e-mail batnyamd@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com

External economic shocks cause domestic macroeconomic aggregates to fluctuate. This may call for a macroeconomic policy intervention. Since the early 1990s an increasing number of countries have adopted an inflation targeting framework. In reality, inflation targeters do not have perfect information when determining the interest rate in order to maintain their goal of price stability and stable economic growth. Therefore it is relevant to understand how shocks affect the domestic macroeconomic aggregates theoretically and investigate whether the theoretical predictions hold empirically. I use the New Keynesian model by Clarida, Galí and Gertler from 1999 and investigate explicitly the theoretical effects of expected and unexpected supply and demand-side shocks on the monetary policy instrument and the two monetary policy target variables – the interest rate, output gap and inflation rate. By analysing the impulse-response functions of a structural VAR model applied to quarterly Swedish and British data from 1994 to 2011, I test empirically the theoretical predictions according to the New Keynesian model. I find that the empirical results are in line with the theoretical predictions.