Yes / Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environ- ment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has prolifer- ated, with varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. This problem is exacerbated by the low event rates of large solar flares. The challenges of forecasting rare events have long been recognized in the meteorology community, but have yet to be fully acknowledged by the space weather community. During the interagency workshop on “all clear” forecasts held in Boulder, CO in 2009, the performance of a number of existing algorithms was compared on common data sets, specifically line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity images from MDI, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We demonstrate the importance of making such systematic comparisons, and of using standard verification statistics to determine what constitutes a good prediction scheme. When a comparison was made in this fashion, no one method clearly outperformed all others, which may in part be due to the strong correlations among the parameters used by different methods to characterize an active region. For M-class flares and above, the set of methods tends towards a weakly positive skill score (as measured with several distinct metrics), with no participating method proving substantially better than climatological forecasts. / This work is the outcome of many collaborative and cooperative efforts. The 2009 “Forecasting the All-Clear” Workshop in Boulder, CO was sponsored by NASA/Johnson Space Flight Center’s Space Radiation Analysis Group, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, with additional travel support for participating scientists from NASA LWS TRT NNH09CE72C to NWRA. The authors thank the participants of that workshop, in particular Drs. Neal Zapp, Dan Fry, Doug Biesecker, for the informative discussions during those three crazy days, and NCAR’s Susan Baltuch and NWRA’s Janet Biggs for organizational prowess. Workshop preparation and analysis support was provided for GB, KDL by NASA LWS TRT NNH09CE72C, and NASA Heliophysics GI NNH12CG10C. PAH and DSB received funding from the European Space Agency PRODEX Programme, while DSB and MKG also received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and in- novation programme under grant agreement No. 640216 (FLARECAST project). MKG also acknowledges research performed under the A-EFFort project and subsequent service implementation, supported under ESA Contract number 4000111994/14/D/MPR. YY was supported by the National Science Foundation under grants ATM 09-36665, ATM 07-16950, ATM-0745744 and by NASA under grants NNX0-7AH78G, NNXO-8AQ90G. YY owes his deepest gratitude to his advisers Prof. Frank Y. Shih, Prof. Haimin Wang and Prof. Ju Jing for long discussions, for reading previous drafts of his work and providing many valuable comments that improved the presentation and contents of this work. JMA was supported by NSF Career Grant AGS-1255024 and by a NMSU Vice President for Research Interdisciplinary Research Grant.

No / The acceleration of electrons and protons caused by a super-Dreicer electric field directed along the longitudinal component By of the magnetic field is investigated. The three-component magnetic field in a nonneutral current sheet occurring at the top of the reconnecting flaring loops on the charged particle trajectories and energies is considered. Particle trajectories in the reconnecting current sheet (RCS) and their energy spectra at the point of ejection from the RCS are simulated from the motion equation for different sheet thicknesses. A super-Dreicer electric field of the current sheet is found to accelerate particles to coherent energy spectra in a range of 10-100 keV for electrons and 100-400 keV for protons with energy slightly increasing with the sheet thickness. A longitudinal By component was found to define the gyration directions of particles with opposite charges toward the RCS midplane, i.e., the trajectory symmetry. For the ratio By/Bz < 10-6 the trajectories are fully symmetric, which results in particle ejection from an RCS as neutral beams. For the ratio By/Bz > 10-2 the trajectories completely lose their symmetry toward the RCS midplane, leading to the separation of particles with opposite charges into the opposite halves from an RCS midplane and the following ejection into different legs of the reconnecting loops. For the intermediate values of By/Bz the trajectories are partially symmetric toward the midplane, leading to electrons prevailing in one leg and protons in the other.

Yes / A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October – 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today’s operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human “forecaster in the loop”; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies. / We wish to acknowledge funding from the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University for supporting the workshop and its participants. We would also like to acknowledge the “big picture” perspective brought by Dr. M. Leila Mays during her participation in the workshop. K.D.L. and G.B. acknowledge that the DAFFS and DAFFS-G tools were developed under NOAA SBIR contracts WC-133R-13-CN-0079 (Phase-I) and WC-133R-14-CN-0103 (PhaseII) with additional support from Lockheed-Martin Space Systems contract #4103056734 for Solar-B FPP Phase E support. A.E.McC. was supported by an Irish Research Council Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship. D.S.B. and M.K.G were supported by the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 640216 (FLARECAST project; http://flarecast.eu). MKG also acknowledges research performed under the A-EFFort project and subsequent service implementation, supported under ESA Contract number 4000111994/14/D/ MPR. S. A. M. is supported by the Irish Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship Programme and the US Air Force Office of Scientific Research award FA9550-17-1-039. The operational Space Weather services of ROB/SIDC are partially funded through the STCE, a collaborative framework funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office.

Magnetic flux continually emerges from the Sun, rising through the solar interior, emerging at the photosphere in the form of sunspots and expanding into the atmosphere. Observations of sunspot rotations have been reported for over a century and are often accompanied by solar eruptions and flaring activity. In this thesis, we present 3D numerical simulations of the emergence of twisted flux tubes from the uppermost layers of the solar interior, examining the rotational movements of sunspots in the photospheric plane. The basic experiment introduces the mechanism and characteristics of sunspot rotation by a clear calculation of rotation angle, vorticity, magnetic helicity and energy, whereby we find an untwisting of the interior portion of the field, accompanied by an injection of twist into the atmospheric field. We extend this model by altering the initial field strength and twist of the sub-photospheric tube. This comparison reveals the rotation angle, helicity and current show a direct dependence on field strength. An increase in field strength increases the rotation angle, the length of fieldlines extending into the atmosphere, and the magnetic energy transported to the atmosphere. The fieldline length is crucial as we predict the twist per unit length equilibrates to a lower value on longer fieldlines, and hence possesses a larger rotation angle. No such direct dependence is found when varying the twist but there is a clear ordering in rotation angle, helicity, and energy, with more highly twisted tubes undergoing larger rotation angles. We believe the final angle of rotation is reached when the system achieves a constant degree of twist along the length of fieldlines. By extrapolating the size of the modelled active region, we find rotation angles and rates comparable with those observed. In addition, we explore sunspot rotation caused by sub-photospheric velocities twisting the footpoints of flux tubes.

In magnetised plasmas, magnetic reconnection is the process of magnetic field merging and recombination through which considerable amounts of magnetic energy may be converted into other forms of energy. Reconnection is a key mechanism for solar flares and coronal mass ejections in the solar atmosphere, it is believed to be an important source of heating of the solar corona, and it plays a major role in the acceleration of particles in the Earth's magnetotail. For reconnection to occur, the magnetic field must, in localised regions, be able to diffuse through the plasma. Ideal locations for diffusion to occur are electric current layers formed from rapidly changing magnetic fields in short space scales. In this thesis we consider the formation and nature of these current layers in magnetised plasmas. The study of current sheets and current layers in two, and more recently, three dimensions, has been a key field of research in the last decades. However, many of these studies do not take plasma pressure effects into consideration, and rather they consider models of current sheets where the magnetic forces sum to zero. More recently, others have started to consider models in which the plasma beta is non-zero, but they simply focus on the actual equilibrium state involving a current layer and do not consider how such an equilibrium may be achieved physically. In particular, they do not allow energy conversion between magnetic and internal energy of the plasma on their way to approaching the final equilibrium. In this thesis, we aim to describe the formation of equilibrium states involving current layers at both two and three dimensional magnetic null points, which are specific locations where the magnetic field vanishes. The different equilibria are obtained through the non-resistive dynamical evolution of perturbed hydromagnetic systems. The dynamic evolution relaxes via viscous damping, resulting in viscous heating. We have run a series of numerical experiments using LARE, a Lagrangian-remap code, that solves the full magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations with user controlled viscosity and resistivity. To allow strong current accumulations to be created in a static equilibrium, we set the resistivity to be zero and hence simply reach our equilibria by solving the ideal MHD equations. We first consider the relaxation of simple homogeneous straight magnetic fields embedded in a plasma, and determine the role of the coupling between magnetic and plasma forces, both analytically and numerically. Then, we study the formation of current accumulations at 2D magnetic X-points and at 3D magnetic nulls with spine-aligned and fan-aligned current. At both 2D X-points and 3D nulls with fan-aligned current, the current density becomes singular at the location of the null. It is impossible to be precisely achieve an exact singularity, and instead, we find a gradual continuous increase of the peak current over time, and small, highly localised forces acting to form the singularity. In the 2D case, we give a qualitative description of the field around the magnetic null using a singular function, which is found to vary within the different topological regions of the field. Also, the final equilibrium depends exponentially on the initial plasma pressure. In the 3D spine-aligned experiments, in contrast, the current density is mainly accumulated along and about the spine, but not at the null. In this case, we find that the plasma pressure does not play an important role in the final equilibrium. Our results show that current sheet formation (and presumably reconnection) around magnetic nulls is held back by non-zero plasma betas, although the value of the plasma pressure appears to be much less important for torsional reconnection. In future studies, we may consider a broader family of 3D nulls, comparing the results with the analytical calculations in 2D, and the relaxation of more complex scenarios such as 3D magnetic separators.

No description available.

No description available.

This thesis presents a new computationally efficient method for modelling the response of the solar corona to the release of energy. During impulsive heating events, the coronal temperature increases which leads to a downward heat flux into the transition region (TR). The plasma is unable to radiate this excess conductive heating and so the gas pressure increases locally. The resulting pressure gradient drives an upflow of dense material, creating an increase in the coronal density. This density increase is often called chromospheric evaporation. A process which is highly sensitive to the TR resolution in numerical simulations. If the resolution is not adequate, then the downward heat flux jumps over the TR and deposits the heat in the chromosphere, where it is radiated away. The outcome is that with an under-resolved TR, major errors occur in simulating the coronal density evolution. We address this problem by treating the lower transition region as a discontinuity that responds to changing coronal conditions through the imposition of a jump condition that is derived from an integrated form of energy conservation. In this thesis, it is shown that this method permits fast and accurate numerical solutions in both one-dimensional and multi-dimensional simulations. By modelling the TR with this appropriate jump condition, we remove the influence of poor numerical resolution and obtain the correct evaporative response to coronal heating, even when using resolutions that are compatible with multi-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations.

Recent observations have shown that coronal shocks driven by coronal mass ejections can develop and accelerate particles within several solar radii in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Motivated by this, we present an SEP acceleration study that including the process in which a fast shock propagates through a streamer-like magnetic field with both closed and open field lines in the low corona region. The acceleration of protons is modeled by numerically solving the Parker transport equation with spatial diffusion both along and across the magnetic field. We show that particles can be sufficiently accelerated to up to several hundred MeV within 2-3 solar radii. When the shock propagates through a streamer-like magnetic field, particles are more efficiently accelerated compared to the case with a simple radial magnetic field, mainly due to perpendicular shock geometry and the natural trapping effect of closed magnetic fields. Our results suggest that the coronal magnetic field configuration is an important factor for producing large SEP events. We further show that the coronal magnetic field configuration strongly influences the distribution of energetic particles, leading to different locations of source regions along the shock front where most high-energy particles are concentrated. This work may have strong implications for SEP observations. The upcoming Parker Solar Probe will provide in situ observations for the distribution of energetic particles in the coronal shock region, and test the results of the study.

yes / A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e. g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.