Understanding long-term trends in highly migratory pelagic stocks in the Pacific Ocean is extremely important as fishing in the Western and Central Pacific is vital to both local economies and the global food supply, accounting for 14% of global seafood. The Pacific is considered “data poor” due to a lack of substantive data, poor quality data, and little fishery-independent assessment. Fishing vessels are nearly exclusively foreign-flagged with virtually all landings exported to Asia and Europe, whereas the GDPs of these island nations are wholly supported by sale of licensures to these fleets. The first chapter examines the validity of using best-available data for ecologically important reconstruction, as well as an overview of approaches used to overcome the encumbrances of such data: self-reporting and profit-maximization. We also examine current methods for handling data-poor situations in marine environments, which provide unique challenges to surveying, patrolling, and enforcement. We applied two modeling approaches to investigate the population dynamics and sustainability of seven species of large predators in the families Xiphiidae, Istiophoridae, and Scombridae comprising the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission Aggregated Catch/Effort database from 1950-present. The entire management region was examined, with the Exclusive Economic Zone of Kiribati explored in detail. This collection of islands and seamounts covers 3.5 million square kilometers including several areas of conservation interest and variable bathymetry. The first, a “traditional” autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, revealed shifts in effort, Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE), catch, abundance, and morphology in all populations, regions, and management area. Second, Catch-MSY identified the Maximum Sustainable Yield (a common metric for fisheries management) for each species by region and the basin. This approach is unique, depending completely on non-reliable self-reported landings data to construct population models useful for management in the absence of costly surveys; often the best available data outside of North America and the EU. This body of work provides the foundation for cost-effective sustainable management of key high-profit open-ocean market species. It identified greatly reduced CPUE of targeted species, increasing CPUE of likely bycatch. Finally, we established catch limits for every reported species in the basin and subregion.

In this study, we consider the mechanism design problem for the optimal allocation of fishing quotas at different total allowable catch (TAC) levels. An age-structured fish population model is employed. Fishing technologies are embedded in the economic model as a key determinant. As a result, we showed that the quota allocation mechanism is important to minimize the impact of fishing on total fish biomass or achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Moreover, we indicated technology-based optimality conditions for allocation of quotas at different TAC levels, which minimize the impact of fishing on total fish biomass or enable us to achieve MSY. Under the consideration that the fishermen fulfill their remaining quotas through capturing untargeted (less revenue-generating) fish after the targeted fish population is fully caught, the fix ratio of the catch of targeted fish to untargeted fish is not valid anymore. Concordantly, we indicated technology-based optimal quota levels, including the interior solutions. In the EU, TACs are distributed among states according to the principle of &lsquo / relative stability&rsquo / which prescribes that the fishing quotas should be allocated based on historical catches of the EU states. In this context, rather than allocating the quotas based on historical catches, our main suggestion is that the structure of the fishing industry should be considered for allocation of quotas to provide the sustainability of EU fisheries and achieve responsible and effective management of the fishing industry in the EU.

This study aims to determine the safe and sustainable development and management of groundwater resources in Ergene River Basin located in northwestern Turkey. A numerical groundwater model was developed for the Sandy Complex aquifer, which is the most productive and the most widespread aquifer in the basin. The finite difference model with 5900 cells was used to represent the steady and unsteady flow in the aquifer. The model was calibrated in two steps: a steady state calibration by using the observed groundwater levels of January 1970, followed by a transient calibration by using the observed groundwater levels for the period of January 1970 and December 2000. The resulting model was used to develop groundwater pumping scenarios in order to predict the changes in the aquifer system under a set of different pumpage conditions for a planning period of 30 years between January 2001 and December 2030. A total of eight pumping scenarios were developed under transient flow conditions for the planning period and the results were evaluated to determine the safe and sustainable yields of the aquifer. The results, presented in the form of a trade-off curve, demonstrate that the continuation of the present pumping rates exceeds both the safe and the sustainable yields of the aquifer system.

The European Commission manages fish stocks by applying a fishing mortality based on the maximum sustainable yield concept. So far most Baltic Sea fishing maximum sustainable yieldmodels have focused on one species at a time. The few existing multi-species models have assumed that a species’ maturity and growth is dependent on the availability of food. Our two-species models make it possible to investigate if there is a conflict between fishing maximum sustainable yield for cod and herring in the Baltic Sea. This two-species model of cod, as a predator and herring as prey, takes into account environmental drivers on cod and herring recruitment. Reproductive volume together with year-growth, (a year specific effect on growth of external variables like food availability) and predation by grey seals was included in the cod model. The herring model was dependent on cod spawning stock biomass and year-growth. The result shows that the reproductive volume is the main factor that affects the maximum sustainable yield for cod. The spawning stock biomass at maximum sustainable yield is more sensitive to reproductive volume than year-growth. When predation from seals is added in mortality and high environmental factors occurs the spawning stock biomass would be 50% compared to the spawning stock biomass at high environmental effects without seal predation. Four simulations of high cod spawning stock biomass were devastating for the herring population that was eradicated with high predation pressure. The herring maximum sustainable yield depends on the amount of cod spawning stack biomass i.e. the effect of high or low reproductive volume. Two analyses were made on a current environmental state for both species. The first analysis had a natural mortality of 0.2 for cod, which gave an fishing mortality of 0.20 and maximum sustainable yield of 410 000 tons. The herring had a fishing mortality of 0.03 and maximum sustainable yield of 11 000 tons. The second simulation included seal predation in cod mortality which decreased the cod maximum sustainable yield by 98% at a fishing mortality of 0.02, which gave a fishing mortality of 0.19 and maximum sustainable yield of 275 000 tons for herring. This gives a 25 times increase of herring maximum sustainable yield compared to the result without predation on cod. The cod population dynamics is vulnerable to environmental changes and to secure a healthy and productive cod population the target fishing mortality should be kept in phase with current reproductive volume. / Europeiska kommissionen förvaltar fiskbestånden genom att tillämpa fiskekvoter baserat på konceptet maximalt hållbart uttag. Hittills har de flesta maximalt hållbara fiske-fångst modeller för Östersjön fokuserat på en art i taget. De få befintliga fler-arts-modeller har antagit att en arts mognad och tillväxt är beroende av tillgången på föda. Vår två-arts-modell gör det möjligt att undersöka om det finns en konflikt mellan maximal hållbar fiske-fångst på torsk och sill i Östersjön. Denna två-arts-modell med torsk som ett rovdjur och sill som byte, tar hänsyn till miljön som drivkraft på deras rekrytering. I torskmodellen ingick reproduktiv volym tillsammans med årlig tillväxt (ett års specifika effekt på tillväxten beroende av externa variabler som tillgången till föda) och predation av gråsäl. Sill-modellen var beroende av årlig tillväxt och lekbeståndets biomassa hos torsk. Resultaten visar att den viktigaste faktorn som påverkar maximalt hållbart uttag för torsk är reproduktiv volym. Lekbeståndets biomassa vid maximalt hållbart uttag är mer känsligt för förändringar i reproduktiv volym än årlig tillväxt. När predation från säl tillsätts och höga gynnsamma miljöfaktorer råder är lekbeståndets biomassa 50 % jämfört med lekbeståndets biomassa vid höga gynnsamma miljöeffekter utan säl predation. Fyra simuleringar gav hög lekbestånds biomassa för torsk vilket var förödande för sillpopulationen som utrotades pga. högt predationstryck. Sillens maximala hållbara uttag beror på mängden lekbestånds biomassa hos torsk, d.v.s. effekten av hög eller låg reproduktiv volym. Två analyser gjordes på nuvarande miljömässiga nivåer för båda arterna. Den första analysen hade en naturlig dödlighet på 0,2 för torsk, vilket gav en fiske-mortalitet på 0,20 och maximalt hållbart uttag på 410 000 ton. Sillen hade en fiske-mortalitet på 0,03 och maximalt hållbart uttag på 11 000 ton. I den andra simuleringen ingår sälpredation på torsk vilket minskade torskens maximala hållbara uttag med 98 % vid en fiske-mortalitet på 0,02, vilket gav en fiske-mortalitet på 0,19 och maximalt hållbart uttag på 275 000 ton för sill. Detta ger en ökning av maximalt hållbart uttag för sill 25 gånger jämfört med resultatet utan predation på torsk. Torskens populationsdynamik är sårbar för miljöförändringar och för att säkra ett sunt och produktivt torskbestånd bör fiskemortaliteten hållas i fas med nuvarande reproduktiva volym.

<p>The Table Mountain Group (TMG) Formation is the lowest member of the Cape Supergroup which consists of sediments deposited from early Ordovician to early Carboniferous times, approximately between 500 and 340 million years ago. The Table Mountain Group (TMG) aquifer system is&nbsp / exposed along the west and south coasts of South Africa. It is a regional fractured rock aquifer that has become a major source of bulk water supply to&nbsp / meet the agricultural and urban water requirements of the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces of South Africa. The TMG aquifer system comprises of an approximately 4000 m thick sequence of quartz arenite and minor shale layers deposited in a shallow, but extensive, predominantly eastwest striking&nbsp / asin, changing to a northwest orientation at the west coast. The medium to coarse grain size and relative purity of some of the quartz arenites,&nbsp / together with their well indurated nature and fracturing due to folding and faulting in the fold belt, enhance both the quality of the groundwater and its&nbsp / exploitation potential for agricultural and domestic water supply purposes and its hot springs for recreation. The region is also home to some unique&nbsp / and indigenous floral species (fynbos) of worldwide importance. These and other groundwater dependent vegetation are found on the series of&nbsp / mountains, mountain slopes and valleys in the Cape Peninsula. The hydrogeology of the TMG consists of intermontane and coastal domains which&nbsp / have different properties but are interconnected. The former is characterized by direct recharge from rain and snow melt, deep groundwater circulation with hot springs and low conductivity groundwater. The coastal domain is characterized by shallow groundwater occurrence usually with moderate to&nbsp / poor quality, indirect recharge from rainfall of shallow circulation and where springs occur they are usually cold. The sustainable utilization of the TMG&nbsp / aquifer addressed the issues of the groundwater flow dynamics, recharge and discharge to and from the aquifer / challenges of climate change and climate variability and their potential impact on the aquifer system. The concept of safe yield, recharge and the capture principle and the integration of&nbsp / sustainable yield provided the basis for sustainable utilization with the adaptive management approach. Methodology used included the evaluation of&nbsp / recharge methods and estimates in the TMG aquifer and a GIS based water balance recharge estimation. The evaluation of natural discharges and&nbsp / artificial abstractions from the TMG aquifer system as well as its potential for future development. The Mann-Kendal trend analysis was used to test historical and present records of temperature and rainfall for significant trends as indication for climate variability and change. The determination of&nbsp / variability index of rainfall and standard precipitation index were additional analyses to investigate variability. The use of a case study from the Klein&nbsp / (Little) Karoo Rural Water Supply Scheme (KKRWSS) within the TMG study area was a test case to assess the sustainable utilization of TMG aquifers.&nbsp / Results show that recharge varies in time and space between 1% and 55% of MAP as a result of different hydrostratigraphic units of the TMG based on&nbsp / geology, hydrology, climate, soil, vegetation and landuse patterns however, the average recharge is from 1% to 5% of MAP. The TMG receives recharge&nbsp / mainly through its 37,000 km2 of outcrop largely exposed on mountainous terrain. Natural discharges from the TMG include 11 thermal and numerous&nbsp / cold spring discharges, baseflow to streams and reservoirs, and seepage to the ocean. Results from this study also show increasing temperature&nbsp / trend over the years while rainfall trend generally&nbsp / remain unchanged in the study area. Rainfall variability persists hence the potential for floodsand droughts in the region remain. Global and Regional Models predict about 10% to 25% reduction in rainfall and increase in variability in future. Impacts of&nbsp / his change in climate will affect the different types of aquifers in various ways. Increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall will increase&nbsp / evapotranspiration, reduce surface flows and eventually reduce shallow aquifer resources. Coastal aquifers risk upsurge in salinisation from sea level&nbsp / rise and increase in abstractions from dwindling surface water resources. While floods increase the risk of contamination to shallow aquifers droughts&nbsp / put pressure on all aquifers especially deep aquifers which are considered to be more reliable due to the fact that they are far removed from surface conditions. Future population growth and increase in freshwater demand will put more pressure on groundwater. Recharge to groundwater have been&nbsp / over-estimated in certain areas in the past leading to high abstraction rates from boreholes causing extensive groundwater storage depletion evident by high decline in groundwater levels in these areas and hampering sustainable management of the aquifer resources. Over-abstraction have resulted in&nbsp / loss of stream flow and baseflow reduction to streams during summer, complete loss of springs and reduction of flow to others. Flow to wetlands,&nbsp / riparian vegetation, and sometimes loss and shifts in dependent ecosystems have also resulted from over-abstraction. Sustainability has spatial and&nbsp / temporal implications due to changing climate and demand. The study recommends adaptive management practices in which several factors are&nbsp / considered in managing groundwater together with surface water resources in order to maintain ecological and environmental integrity. The KKRWSS&nbsp / and other groundwater supply schemes in the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces demonstrate the huge potential of the TMG to provide freshwatersupply for domestic and irrigation water needs however, the huge decline in groundwater levels due to over-abstraction in the KKRWSS and&nbsp / other groundwater schemes underscores the need for sustainable utilization of the TMG groundwater resources for present and future generations with&nbsp / minimal impacts on the quality, dependent hydrological and ecosystems as well as the environment.</p>

The relationship between spawning stock biomass (SSB) and 3 spatial distribution metrics (SDMs), measuring range, concentration, and density, using fisheries independent survey data for 10 demersal Northwest Atlantic fish populations (9 species), show metrics of density offer the best correlate of SSB. The concave, positive relationship between high density area (HDA) and SSB indicates that a decline in HDAs beyond a spatial threshold is associated with disproportionately large SSB declines in 6 populations. HDAs might indicate highly productive areas and/or positive fitness consequences, enhancing the ability of individuals to successfully spawn, locate prey, and evade predators. HDAs can help to assess the status of a population’s spatial structure and serve as a spatial reference point. By comparing spatial reference point locations relative to existing biomass reference points (based on MSY), scenarios are described wherein spatial reference points contribute to biomass reference points and to a precautionary approach to fisheries management.

<p>The Table Mountain Group (TMG) Formation is the lowest member of the Cape Supergroup which consists of sediments deposited from early Ordovician to early Carboniferous times, approximately between 500 and 340 million years ago. The Table Mountain Group (TMG) aquifer system is&nbsp / exposed along the west and south coasts of South Africa. It is a regional fractured rock aquifer that has become a major source of bulk water supply to&nbsp / meet the agricultural and urban water requirements of the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces of South Africa. The TMG aquifer system comprises of an approximately 4000 m thick sequence of quartz arenite and minor shale layers deposited in a shallow, but extensive, predominantly eastwest striking&nbsp / asin, changing to a northwest orientation at the west coast. The medium to coarse grain size and relative purity of some of the quartz arenites,&nbsp / together with their well indurated nature and fracturing due to folding and faulting in the fold belt, enhance both the quality of the groundwater and its&nbsp / exploitation potential for agricultural and domestic water supply purposes and its hot springs for recreation. The region is also home to some unique&nbsp / and indigenous floral species (fynbos) of worldwide importance. These and other groundwater dependent vegetation are found on the series of&nbsp / mountains, mountain slopes and valleys in the Cape Peninsula. The hydrogeology of the TMG consists of intermontane and coastal domains which&nbsp / have different properties but are interconnected. The former is characterized by direct recharge from rain and snow melt, deep groundwater circulation with hot springs and low conductivity groundwater. The coastal domain is characterized by shallow groundwater occurrence usually with moderate to&nbsp / poor quality, indirect recharge from rainfall of shallow circulation and where springs occur they are usually cold. The sustainable utilization of the TMG&nbsp / aquifer addressed the issues of the groundwater flow dynamics, recharge and discharge to and from the aquifer / challenges of climate change and climate variability and their potential impact on the aquifer system. The concept of safe yield, recharge and the capture principle and the integration of&nbsp / sustainable yield provided the basis for sustainable utilization with the adaptive management approach. Methodology used included the evaluation of&nbsp / recharge methods and estimates in the TMG aquifer and a GIS based water balance recharge estimation. The evaluation of natural discharges and&nbsp / artificial abstractions from the TMG aquifer system as well as its potential for future development. The Mann-Kendal trend analysis was used to test historical and present records of temperature and rainfall for significant trends as indication for climate variability and change. The determination of&nbsp / variability index of rainfall and standard precipitation index were additional analyses to investigate variability. The use of a case study from the Klein&nbsp / (Little) Karoo Rural Water Supply Scheme (KKRWSS) within the TMG study area was a test case to assess the sustainable utilization of TMG aquifers.&nbsp / Results show that recharge varies in time and space between 1% and 55% of MAP as a result of different hydrostratigraphic units of the TMG based on&nbsp / geology, hydrology, climate, soil, vegetation and landuse patterns however, the average recharge is from 1% to 5% of MAP. The TMG receives recharge&nbsp / mainly through its 37,000 km2 of outcrop largely exposed on mountainous terrain. Natural discharges from the TMG include 11 thermal and numerous&nbsp / cold spring discharges, baseflow to streams and reservoirs, and seepage to the ocean. Results from this study also show increasing temperature&nbsp / trend over the years while rainfall trend generally&nbsp / remain unchanged in the study area. Rainfall variability persists hence the potential for floodsand droughts in the region remain. Global and Regional Models predict about 10% to 25% reduction in rainfall and increase in variability in future. Impacts of&nbsp / his change in climate will affect the different types of aquifers in various ways. Increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall will increase&nbsp / evapotranspiration, reduce surface flows and eventually reduce shallow aquifer resources. Coastal aquifers risk upsurge in salinisation from sea level&nbsp / rise and increase in abstractions from dwindling surface water resources. While floods increase the risk of contamination to shallow aquifers droughts&nbsp / put pressure on all aquifers especially deep aquifers which are considered to be more reliable due to the fact that they are far removed from surface conditions. Future population growth and increase in freshwater demand will put more pressure on groundwater. Recharge to groundwater have been&nbsp / over-estimated in certain areas in the past leading to high abstraction rates from boreholes causing extensive groundwater storage depletion evident by high decline in groundwater levels in these areas and hampering sustainable management of the aquifer resources. Over-abstraction have resulted in&nbsp / loss of stream flow and baseflow reduction to streams during summer, complete loss of springs and reduction of flow to others. Flow to wetlands,&nbsp / riparian vegetation, and sometimes loss and shifts in dependent ecosystems have also resulted from over-abstraction. Sustainability has spatial and&nbsp / temporal implications due to changing climate and demand. The study recommends adaptive management practices in which several factors are&nbsp / considered in managing groundwater together with surface water resources in order to maintain ecological and environmental integrity. The KKRWSS&nbsp / and other groundwater supply schemes in the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces demonstrate the huge potential of the TMG to provide freshwatersupply for domestic and irrigation water needs however, the huge decline in groundwater levels due to over-abstraction in the KKRWSS and&nbsp / other groundwater schemes underscores the need for sustainable utilization of the TMG groundwater resources for present and future generations with&nbsp / minimal impacts on the quality, dependent hydrological and ecosystems as well as the environment.</p>

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / The Table Mountain Group (TMG) Formation is the lowest member of the Cape Supergroup which consists of sediments deposited from early Ordovician to early Carboniferous times, approximately between 500 and 340 million years ago. The Table Mountain Group (TMG) aquifer system is exposed along the west and south coasts of South Africa. It is a regional fractured rock aquifer that has become a major source of bulk water supply to meet the agricultural and urban water requirements of the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces of South Africa. The TMG aquifer system comprises of an approximately 4000 m thick sequence of quartz arenite and minor shale layers deposited in a shallow, but extensive, predominantly eastwest striking asin, changing to a northwest orientation at the west coast. The medium to coarse grain size and relative purity of some of the quartz arenites, together with their well indurated nature and fracturing due to folding and faulting in the fold belt, enhance both the quality of the groundwater and its exploitation potential for agricultural and domestic water supply purposes and its hot springs for recreation. The region is also home to some unique and indigenous floral species (fynbos) of worldwide importance. These and other groundwater dependent vegetation are found on the series of mountains, mountain slopes and valleys in the Cape Peninsula. The hydrogeology of the TMG consists of intermontane and coastal domains which have different properties but are interconnected. The former is characterized by direct recharge from rain and snow melt, deep groundwater circulation with hot springs and low conductivity groundwater. The coastal domain is characterized by shallow groundwater occurrence usually with moderate to poor quality, indirect recharge from rainfall of shallow circulation and where springs occur they are usually cold. The sustainable utilization of the TMG aquifer addressed the issues of the groundwater flow dynamics, recharge and discharge to and from the aquifer; challenges of climate change and climate variability and their potential impact on the aquifer system. The concept of safe yield, recharge and the capture principle and the integration of sustainable yield provided the basis for sustainable utilization with the adaptive management approach. Methodology used included the evaluation of recharge methods and estimates in the TMG aquifer and a GIS based water balance recharge estimation. The evaluation of natural discharges and artificial abstractions from the TMG aquifer system as well as its potential for future development. The Mann-Kendal trend analysis was used to test historical and present records of temperature and rainfall for significant trends as indication for climate variability and change. The determination of variability index of rainfall and standard precipitation index were additional analyses to investigate variability. The use of a case study from the Klein (Little) Karoo Rural Water Supply Scheme (KKRWSS) within the TMG study area was a test case to assess the sustainable utilization of TMG aquifers. Results show that recharge varies in time and space between 1% and 55% of MAP as a result of different hydrostratigraphic units of the TMG based on geology, hydrology, climate, soil, vegetation and landuse patterns however, the average recharge is from 1% to 5% of MAP. The TMG receives recharge mainly through its 37,000 km2 of outcrop largely exposed on mountainous terrain. Natural discharges from the TMG include 11 thermal and numerous cold spring discharges, baseflow to streams and reservoirs, and seepage to the ocean. Results from this study also show increasing temperature trend over the years while rainfall trend generally remain unchanged in the study area. Rainfall variability persists hence the potential for floodsand droughts in the region remain. Global and Regional Models predict about 10% to 25% reduction in rainfall and increase in variability in future. Impacts of his change in climate will affect the different types of aquifers in various ways. Increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall will increase evapotranspiration, reduce surface flows and eventually reduce shallow aquifer resources. Coastal aquifers risk upsurge in salinisation from sea level rise and increase in abstractions from dwindling surface water resources. While floods increase the risk of contamination to shallow aquifers droughts put pressure on all aquifers especially deep aquifers which are considered to be more reliable due to the fact that they are far removed from surface conditions. Future population growth and increase in freshwater demand will put more pressure on groundwater. Recharge to groundwater have been over-estimated in certain areas in the past leading to high abstraction rates from boreholes causing extensive groundwater storage depletion evident by high decline in groundwater levels in these areas and hampering sustainable management of the aquifer resources. Over-abstraction have resulted in loss of stream flow and baseflow reduction to streams during summer, complete loss of springs and reduction of flow to others. Flow to wetlands, riparian vegetation, and sometimes loss and shifts in dependent ecosystems have also resulted from over-abstraction. Sustainability has spatial and temporal implications due to changing climate and demand. The study recommends adaptive management practices in which several factors are considered in managing groundwater together with surface water resources in order to maintain ecological and environmental integrity. The KKRWSS and other groundwater supply schemes in the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces demonstrate the huge potential of the TMG to provide freshwatersupply for domestic and irrigation water needs however, the huge decline in groundwater levels due to over-abstraction in the KKRWSS and other groundwater schemes underscores the need for sustainable utilization of the TMG groundwater resources for present and future generations with minimal impacts on the quality, dependent hydrological and ecosystems as well as the environment. / South Africa