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Methods for Covariance Matrix Estimation : A Comparison of Shrinkage Estimators in Financial ApplicationsSpector, Erik January 2024 (has links)
This paper explores different covariance matrix estimators in application to geometric Brownian motion. Particular interest is given to shrinkage estimation methods. In collaboration with Söderberg & Partners risk management team, the goal is to find an estimation that performs well in low-data scenarios and is robust against erroneous model assumptions, particularly the Gaussian assumption of the stock price distribution. Estimations are compared by two criteria: Frobenius norm distance between the estimate and the true covariance matrix, and the condition number of the estimate. By considering four estimates — the sample covariance matrix, Ledoit-Wolf, Tyler M-estimator, and a novel Tyler-Ledoit-Wolf (TLW) estimator — this paper concludes that the TLW estimator performs best when considering the two criteria.
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