Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-12T23:16:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 arquivo9043_1.pdf: 3666019 bytes, checksum: 8de16a0b018c98e5835509efad353569 (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004 / Universidade Federal de Pernambuco / A modelagem hidrológica das vazões de saída em uma bacia hidrográfica pode ser mais precisa quando se usa parâmetros distribuídos ao longo da bacia e se leva em consideração suas características fisiográficas. model TOPMODEL utiliza o modelo digital do terreno, leva em consideração a área de contribuição a montante de cada célula e a declividade da célula, incorporando-os no índice topográfico que representa a potencialidade da célula em saturar. Assim, de acordo com a precipitação pluviométrica, com o estado de saturação do solo e com o déficit hídrico das células, calcula-se a vazão na seção exutória da bacia estudada. Para resolver alguns problemas existentes em aplicações do TOPMODEL a casos reais, foi feito o desenvolvimento teórico para implantar a distribuição espacial do déficit hídrico máximo, e realizada a implementação computacional no modelo. Neste caso foi utilizado o modelo TOPSIMPL, uma variante do modelo TOPMODEL que utiliza apenas 4 parâmetros. Esta nova versão foi aplicada à bacia do riacho Gameleira, afluente do rio Tapacurá, em Pernambuco. Para isto foi elaborado o modelo digital de terreno, instalado um sistema de aquisição automática de dados e, ao longo de 32 meses, foram armazenados os dados de precipitação pluviométrica e vazão a cada minuto. Foi realizada a calibração e validação das duas versões do TOPSIMPL com alguns eventos chuvosos na bacia do Gameleira e os resultados mostraram que as vazões na seção exutória tem seus valores calculados bastante semelhantes, tanto na versão 2 como na versão nova. Entretanto a versão nova mostrou uma melhor representação do estado de saturação das células. O déficit máximo, com sua distribuição espacial, propicia a aplicação do modelo em regiões semi-áridas, como é o caso do nordeste brasileiro, onde a camada de solo é rasa e a mesma pode atingir o limite máximo do déficit

In this study, two hydrologic models were applied to the mountainous Back Creek catchment, located in the headwaters of the Roanoke River in Southwest Virginia. The two models employed were HEC-1, an event based lumped model, and TOPMODEL, a continuous semi-distributed model. These models were used to investigate (a) the issue of spatial scale in hydrologic modeling, and (b) two approaches to modeling, continuous versus event based. Two HEC-1 models were developed with a different number of subareas in each. The hydrographs generated by each HEC-1 model for a number of large rainfall events were analyzed visually and statistically. No observable improvement resulted from increasing the number of subareas in the HEC-1 models from 20 to 81. TOPMODEL was applied to the same watershed using a series of different size grid cells. The first step in applying TOPMODEL to a watershed involves GIS analysis which results in a raster grid of elevations used for the calculation of the topographic index, ln(a/tan b). The hydrographs generated by TOPMODEL with each grid cell size were compared in order to assess the sensitivity of TOPMODEL hydrographs to grid cell size. An increase in grid cell size from 15 to 120 meters resulted in increased values of the watershed mean of the topographic index. However, hydrographs generated by TOPMODEL were completely unaffected by this increase in the topographic index. Analyses were also performed to determine the sensitivity of TOPMODEL hydrographs to several model parameters. It was determined that the parameters that had the greatest effect on hydrographs generated by TOPMODEL were the m and ln(To) parameters. The modeling performances of the event based HEC-1 and the continuous TOPMODEL were analyzed and compared visually and statistically for a number of large storms. The limited number of storms used to compare HEC-1 and TOPMODEL makes it difficult to determine definitively which model simulates large storms better. It does appear that perhaps HEC-1 is slightly superior in that regard. TOPMODEL was also executed as an event based model for two single events and the resulting hydrographs were compared to the HEC-1 and continuous TOPMODEL results. Both HEC-1 and TOPMODEL (when used as a continuous model) simulate large storms better than TOPMODEL (when used as an event based model). / Master of Science

Este trabalho compreende a modelagem hidrológica da bacia hidrográfica do rio Muriaé (BHRM). As simulações hidrológicas foram realizadas com o modelo hidrológico TOPMODEL com medições de precipitação de estimativa de vazão da rede telemétrica da Rede Hidrometeorológica Nacional (RHN). Utilizou-se também as respectivas estimativas de precipitação por satélite com o método CMORPH, e a análise de precipitação integrada entre a precipitação medida pela telemetria e a estimada por satélite por meio da análise objetiva estatística (ANOBES). A calibração e a validação do modelo TOPMODEL foram realizadas para eventos hidrológicos entre 2016 e 2018. A calibração do modelo TOPMODEL com as séries de dados de precipitação acima foi avaliada por meio do coeficiente de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), que variou entre 0,7 e 0,9. A validação do modelo TOPMODEL com séries independentes resultou em NSE de -0,8 a 0,3. Este resultado em grande parte se deve ao pequeno número de eventos hidrológicos desde o início das medições telemétricas na BHRM. O TOPMODEL também foi utilizado para simular vazões em séries com período anual entre 2009 e 2013. A calibração e validação com séries anuais resultaram em NSE ~ 0,6. Notadamente, as simulações com CMORPH tendem a subestimar as vazões, enquanto que com ANOBES o desempenho foi melhor, em especial para períodos de cheia. Portanto, os resultados sugerem a aplicabilidade do modelo TOPMODEL para simulações hidrológicas da Bacia do Rio Muriaé, com os melhores resultados obtidos quando a modelagem iniciou em um período de estiagem e o dado de precipitação representou a variabilidade espacial da chuva. / This study comprises the hydrological modeling of the Muriaé river basin. Hydrologic simulations were performed with the TOPMODEL hydrological model, with precipitation measurements and discharge estimation from the Brazilian Hydrometeorology Network (RHN). It was also used satellite precipitation estimates with the CMORPH method, and the integrated precipitation analysis between the precipitation measured by the telemetry and the estimated by satellite through objective statistical analysis (SOAS). The calibration and validation of the TOPMODEL model were performed for hydrological events between 2016 and 2018. The calibration of the TOPMODEL model with the above precipitation data series was evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), which ranged from 0,7 and 0,9. Validation of the TOPMODEL model with independent series resulted in NSE from -0,8 to 0,3. This result is largely due to the small number of hydrological events since the beginning of telemetry measurements at the Muriaé river basin. TOPMODEL was also used to simulate flows in series with annual period between 2009 and 2013. Calibration and validation with annual series resulted in NSE ~ 0.6. Notably, CMORPH simulations tend to underestimate flow rates, while with SOAS the performance was better, especially for flood periods. Therefore, the results suggest the applicability of the TOPMODEL model for hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river basin, with the best results obtained when the modeling started in a drought period and the rainfall data represented the spatial variability of the rainfall.

A Bacia do Alto Tiete abriga cerca de 50% dos habitantes do Estado de São Paulo e é afetada freqüentemente por eventos de inundações. Uma das principais fontes de problemas é a alta impermeabilização devida à ocupação da superfície nas últimas décadas. Um dos seus tributários secundários, a bacia do Rio Pirajuçara se insere neste contexto e sofre com problemas da mesma natureza. A modelagem hidrológica permite uma análise do escoamento superficial nestes ambientes e é útil na previsão de vazões por meio de redes telemétricas e sensoriamento remoto. Entretanto, redes telemétricas apresentam problemas de representatividade espacial e exposição, radares meteorológicos, apesar da maior resolução espaço-temporal das estimativas de precipitação, possuem várias fontes de erros e incertezas. A principal delas se refere à relação ZR. Deste modo, a integração dessas medições e estimativas pode minimizar erros de ambas. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar aspectos hidrológicos da Bacia do Rio Pirajuçara por meio do modelo TOPMODEL com medições de vazão e precipitação disponíveis para 18 eventos monitorados entre outubro de 2008 a outubro de 2009. O modelo TOPMODEL foi calibrado com dez eventos e verificado com os demais. A calibração foi realizada com os dados da telemetria da Bacia do Alto Tietê, radar meteorológico de São Paulo e a combinação de ambos por meio da análise objetiva estatística. Os resultados da calibração indicam que o melhor desempenho foi obtido com radar meteorológico, com número de NASH de 0,51, menor erro quadrático médio e menor viés médio absoluto. A verificação também indicou o mesmo resultado com número de NASH de 0,69. As simulações indicam que apesar da utilização da precipitação média, o modelo TOPMODEL simulou adequadamente cerca de 75% das vazões de alerta. O trabalho evidencia as limitações da telemetria e seus impactos na integração com os dados do radar. / The Alto Tiete watershed is home for about 50% of the inhabitants of São Paulo State and is affected by recurrent flashfloods. One major source of difficulties is the high rate of soil impermeabilization caused by dense surface occupation in the last decades. One of its secondary tributaries, the Pirajussara watershed suffers with similar problems. Hydrological modeling allows the analysis of runoff and other variables in these basins. It also useful for streamflow forecast based on telemetric networks and remote sensing measurements. However, surface networks lack spatial representativity and exposure is a also a issue, weather radars, in spite of their much higher spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimation, are affect by several sources of errors and uncertainties; the most significant one being the ZR relationship. Thus, the integration of these measurements and estimates can minimize errors of both. The goal of the present work is to analyze the surface hydrology of the Pirajussara watershed based on the TOPMODEL, streamflow and rainfall measurements available for eighteen events between October 2008 and October 2009. The TOPMODEL was calibrated with ten events and verified with the remaining events. The calibration was performed with the Alto Tiete telemetric measurements of streamflow and rainfall only, the São Paulo weather radar (SPWR) only and a combination of both through the statistical analysis scheme. Calibration results show a better performance for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.51, least SME and mean bias. On the other hand, the verification also indicated better results for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.69. The simulations indicate that in spite of the use of the mean rainfall over the watershed, the TOPMODEL performed adequately for 75% of the streamflow alerts. It is also evident the limitation of the available network and its impacts on the integration to the SPWR rainfall data.

A Bacia do Alto Tiete abriga cerca de 50% dos habitantes do Estado de São Paulo e é afetada freqüentemente por eventos de inundações. Uma das principais fontes de problemas é a alta impermeabilização devida à ocupação da superfície nas últimas décadas. Um dos seus tributários secundários, a bacia do Rio Pirajuçara se insere neste contexto e sofre com problemas da mesma natureza. A modelagem hidrológica permite uma análise do escoamento superficial nestes ambientes e é útil na previsão de vazões por meio de redes telemétricas e sensoriamento remoto. Entretanto, redes telemétricas apresentam problemas de representatividade espacial e exposição, radares meteorológicos, apesar da maior resolução espaço-temporal das estimativas de precipitação, possuem várias fontes de erros e incertezas. A principal delas se refere à relação ZR. Deste modo, a integração dessas medições e estimativas pode minimizar erros de ambas. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar aspectos hidrológicos da Bacia do Rio Pirajuçara por meio do modelo TOPMODEL com medições de vazão e precipitação disponíveis para 18 eventos monitorados entre outubro de 2008 a outubro de 2009. O modelo TOPMODEL foi calibrado com dez eventos e verificado com os demais. A calibração foi realizada com os dados da telemetria da Bacia do Alto Tietê, radar meteorológico de São Paulo e a combinação de ambos por meio da análise objetiva estatística. Os resultados da calibração indicam que o melhor desempenho foi obtido com radar meteorológico, com número de NASH de 0,51, menor erro quadrático médio e menor viés médio absoluto. A verificação também indicou o mesmo resultado com número de NASH de 0,69. As simulações indicam que apesar da utilização da precipitação média, o modelo TOPMODEL simulou adequadamente cerca de 75% das vazões de alerta. O trabalho evidencia as limitações da telemetria e seus impactos na integração com os dados do radar. / The Alto Tiete watershed is home for about 50% of the inhabitants of São Paulo State and is affected by recurrent flashfloods. One major source of difficulties is the high rate of soil impermeabilization caused by dense surface occupation in the last decades. One of its secondary tributaries, the Pirajussara watershed suffers with similar problems. Hydrological modeling allows the analysis of runoff and other variables in these basins. It also useful for streamflow forecast based on telemetric networks and remote sensing measurements. However, surface networks lack spatial representativity and exposure is a also a issue, weather radars, in spite of their much higher spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimation, are affect by several sources of errors and uncertainties; the most significant one being the ZR relationship. Thus, the integration of these measurements and estimates can minimize errors of both. The goal of the present work is to analyze the surface hydrology of the Pirajussara watershed based on the TOPMODEL, streamflow and rainfall measurements available for eighteen events between October 2008 and October 2009. The TOPMODEL was calibrated with ten events and verified with the remaining events. The calibration was performed with the Alto Tiete telemetric measurements of streamflow and rainfall only, the São Paulo weather radar (SPWR) only and a combination of both through the statistical analysis scheme. Calibration results show a better performance for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.51, least SME and mean bias. On the other hand, the verification also indicated better results for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.69. The simulations indicate that in spite of the use of the mean rainfall over the watershed, the TOPMODEL performed adequately for 75% of the streamflow alerts. It is also evident the limitation of the available network and its impacts on the integration to the SPWR rainfall data.

El humedal Pajonales de Tilicura es importante por la nidificación de aves y la población de coipos que se estima es la más abundante en la región. En las laderas del humedal existen plantaciones de Pino Insigne por lo que sería interesante estimar el efecto que tienen sobre el nivel de éste. El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar los caudales medios mensuales afluentes al humedal Pajonales de Tilicura y determinar la sensibilidad de éstos a las condiciones de forestación en la cuenca utilizando un modelo de simulación hidrológica. De acuerdo a las características de la zona de estudio y de los datos disponibles se eligió el modelo de simulación hidrológica TOPMODEL. La calibración y validación del modelo, a nivel diario, se efectuó en la cuenca vecina Estero El Manzano, que presenta un régimen hidrológico similar, obteniéndose indicadores de eficiencia (Nash-Sutcliffe) mayores a 0,79. Posteriormente los parámetros fueron transferidos a la cuenca afluente al humedal pero se modificó el parámetro relacionado con la profundidad de las raíces para reflejar las diferencias entre el uso del suelo de ambas cuencas. Luego se simuló el caudal medio diario afluente al humedal para el período octubre 2003- diciembre 2007 obteniendo un caudal medio mensual promedio entre 0,4m3/s en el mes de junio y 2,7m3/s en el mes de agosto. A pesar de que el modelo no es capaz de simular la gestión de cuáles superficies conviene forestar para minimizar el impacto sobre el recurso hídrico afluente al humedal, si permitió evaluar la sensibilidad del caudal medio mensual afluente para las distintas condiciones de forestación en la cuenca. Los resultados muestran que cuando la cuenca tiene un porcentaje bajo de forestación (18,9%) los caudales máximos alcanzan valores entre 3,5 y 5m3/s mientras que para altos niveles de forestación (90%) éstos disminuyen a valores entre 1,5 y 2,5m3/s.

Dans un contexte de changement climatique dont les projections régionales sont incertaines, de forte variabilité inter-annuelle du cycle hydrologique, de forte croissance démographique et de changement d'occupation des sols, les questions relatives au cycle hydrologique et à la ressource en eau actuels et à venir sont cruciales. Dans un tel contexte, ce travail de thèse approfondit la connaissance du fonctionnement hydrologique du bassin versant de l'Ouémé supérieur (situé en climat soudanien au Bénin), en considérant l'ensemble des termes et des processus du cycle hydrologique.Dans un premier temps, le fonctionnement hydrologique de l'Ouémé supérieur est analysé à l'échelle d'un versant grâce au modèle Hydrus 2D. Cette analyse de processus s'appuie sur un ensemble complet de mesures (précipitations, évapotranspiration, humidité du sol, niveau piézométrique, débit en rivière) obtenues dans le cadre de l'observatoire hydrométéorologique AMMA-CATCH. Les simulations montrent que la forêt ripisylve vidange la nappe profonde et la déconnecte ainsi du réseau hydrographique. L'apport d'eau de la nappe profonde permet une transpiration de la forêt ripisylve toute l'année, y compris en saison sèche. Les écoulements en rivière ne sont pas produits uniquement par exfiltration d'écoulements latéraux de subsurface non saturés, les bas-fonds jouent probablement un rôle.À méso-échelle, nous cherchons à quantifier l'impact de la variabilité spatiale de la conductivité hydraulique à saturation sur le bilan hydrologique et l'évapotranspiration. Le modèle numérique utilisé est nTopAMMA, formalisme dérivé de TopMODEL. À partir de mesures de terrain, nous avons mis en évidence que la variabilité spatiale de la conductivité hydraulique à saturation est corrélée à l'occupation du sol du bassin d'étude. La prise en compte de cette variabilité spatiale dans le modèle nTopAMMA montre que l'état hydrique et l'évapotranspiration simulés localement par le modèle dépendent aux trois-quarts de la topographie et pour un quart de la conductivité hydraulique à saturation.Adoptant une approche ascendante, nous confrontons la représentation élaborée à l'échelle du versant à la modélisation hydrologique à méso-échelle. Nous analysons les processus et flux verticaux du modèle nTopAMMA. L'amélioration de la modélisation du cycle hydrologique de l'Ouémé supérieur par le modèle nTopAMMA nécessite (i) la prise en compte des hétérogénéités du bassin versant, (ii) la modification du formalisme de l'évapotranspiration, (iii) la diversification des sources de prélèvements évapotranspiratoires et (iv) l'intégration de la nappe d'altérites. / Understanding how the hydrological cycle and water resources availability evolve in the current context of global change (which encompass climate, environmental and population changes) is a critical issue, particularly in West Africa, where at regional scale, strong interannual and seasonal variabilities overlap with highly uncertain climate predictions. Within this framework, this work aims at improving our knowledge of the behavior of the Upper Oueme catchment in Benin (Sudanian climate), with an analysis of all the hydrological processes and terms of the terrestrial hydrological cycle.First, the hillslope scale is considered by using the Hydrus 2D software and field observations from the hydrometeorological observing system AMMA-CATCH: rainfall, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater level and river runoff. The principal result of this analysis is that the riparian forest transpiration depletes the deep groundwater and disconnects it from the river network. Water supply by the deep groundwater enables the riparian forest transpiration all year long and particularly during the dry season. Seepage of unsaturated subsurface lateral flows contributes to river runoff, but the "bas-fonds" seem to be other important contributors.Then, at mesoscale, we quantify the impact of the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity on the simulated water balance, with focus on the evapotranspiration term. The numerical model nTopAMMA, especially derived from the TopMODEL hydrological model for the Upper Oueme catchment, is used here. Measurements from a specific field mission evidence the correlation between the hydraulic conductivity spatial variability and the land use one. By taking into account this variability, the simulation results show that evapotranspiration and water storage simulated on the Upper Oueme catchment at local (pixel) scale depend essentially on the topography (75 %) and to a lesser extent on the hydraulic conductivity (25 %).Finally, a bottom-up approach is adopted to analyse the hydrological modelling results at mesoscale, taking advantage of the modelling results at the hillslope scale. Vertical processes and fluxes simulated by nTopAMMA are analyzed. It is shown that an improvement of the Upper Oueme hydrological cycle modelling, with nTopAMMA, requires: (i) the consideration of the catchment heterogeneities, (ii) the modification of the evapotranspiration module, (iii) the diversification of the evapotranspiration sources and (iv) the integration of the deep groundwater reservoir.

In this thesis I investigate what ‘authenticity’ means in a contemporary popular context and how it is used in the staging of bodies. Furthermore, I analyse works of dance and fashion from the past fifteen years with a focus on their strategies of challenging the notion of ‘bodily authenticity’.   When ‘an authentic body’ is sought by participants or demanded by judges and ‘experts’ on popular makeover and casting TV shows such as The Swan (Fox 2004) or Germany’s Next Topmodel (Pro 7 2006-present) this refers to the physical visualisation of what is perceived/presented as the participants ‘inner self’. I scrutinise the staging techniques and the codes of appearance that bodies have to comply with in order to be deemed ‘authentic’ on the shows. To define them and place them in the history of the idea of ‘bodily authenticity’, I complement my study with an outline of how ‘authenticity’ was understood in the Enlightenment and what techniques were used to stage the body when the concept gained currency, for instance in the writings of Rousseau. My analysis makes clear that 'bodily authenticity' on the two TV shows is achieved by strictly following gender-normative codes of beauty and by a depiction of 'working hard'. But various techniques also mask the hard work, for example by showing a participant ‘having fun’ performing it.   Contemporary works of dance and fashion challenge the problematic implications in the notion of ‘bodily authenticity’. I analyse three strategies of undermining the ‘authentic’ ideal in a total of seven pieces. These strategies are hyperbole which exaggerates the beauty code implicit in ‘authentic appearance’; multiplicity which undermines ‘authenticity’s’ essentialism and estrangement which denies the notion of individual authorship. In conclusion, I place the staging strategies used in my examples in a wider cultural context and highlight potential problems inherent in their critiques. / <p>Thesis is done in ’co-tutelle’ with Freie Universität Berlin. </p>

<p>Available observations are often not sufficient as a basis for decision making in water management. Conceptual runoff models are frequently used as tools for a wide range of tasks to compensate the lack of measurements, e.g., to extend runoff series, compute design floods and predict the leakage of nutrients or the effects of a climatic change. Conceptual runoff models are practical tools, especially if the reliability in their predictions can be assessed. Testing of these models is usually based solely on comparison of simulated and observed runoff, although most models also simulate other fluxes and states. Such tests do not allow thorough assessment ofmodel-prediction reliability. In this thesis, two widespread conceptual models, the HBV modeland TOPMODEL, were tested using a catalogue of methods for model validation (defined as estimation of confidence in model simulations). The worth of multi-criteria validation forevaluating model consistency was emphasised. Both models were capable to simulate runoffadequately after calibration, whereas the performance for some of the other validation tests wasless satisfactory. The impossibility to identify unique parameter values caused large uncertainties in model predictions for the HBV model. The parameter uncertainty was reducedwhen groundwater levels were included into the calibration, whereas groundwater-levelsimulations were in weak agreement with observations when the model was calibrated againstonly runoff. The agreement of TOP-MODEL simulations with spatially distributed data was weak for both groundwater levels and the distribution of saturated areas. Furthermore, validation against hydrological common sense revealed weaknesses in the TOPMODEL approach. In summary these results indicated limitations of conceptual runoff models and highlighted the need for powarful validation methods. The use of such methods enables assessment of the reliability of model predictions. It also supports the further development of models by identification of weak parts and evalution of improvements.</p>

Available observations are often not sufficient as a basis for decision making in water management. Conceptual runoff models are frequently used as tools for a wide range of tasks to compensate the lack of measurements, e.g., to extend runoff series, compute design floods and predict the leakage of nutrients or the effects of a climatic change. Conceptual runoff models are practical tools, especially if the reliability in their predictions can be assessed. Testing of these models is usually based solely on comparison of simulated and observed runoff, although most models also simulate other fluxes and states. Such tests do not allow thorough assessment ofmodel-prediction reliability. In this thesis, two widespread conceptual models, the HBV modeland TOPMODEL, were tested using a catalogue of methods for model validation (defined as estimation of confidence in model simulations). The worth of multi-criteria validation forevaluating model consistency was emphasised. Both models were capable to simulate runoffadequately after calibration, whereas the performance for some of the other validation tests wasless satisfactory. The impossibility to identify unique parameter values caused large uncertainties in model predictions for the HBV model. The parameter uncertainty was reducedwhen groundwater levels were included into the calibration, whereas groundwater-levelsimulations were in weak agreement with observations when the model was calibrated againstonly runoff. The agreement of TOP-MODEL simulations with spatially distributed data was weak for both groundwater levels and the distribution of saturated areas. Furthermore, validation against hydrological common sense revealed weaknesses in the TOPMODEL approach. In summary these results indicated limitations of conceptual runoff models and highlighted the need for powarful validation methods. The use of such methods enables assessment of the reliability of model predictions. It also supports the further development of models by identification of weak parts and evalution of improvements.