<p>Utgångspunkten för uppsatsen är den traditionella teorin om marknadseffektivitet som ställs mot tidigare forskning, främst amerikansk, och den moderna beteenderelaterande finansiella teorin. Bland annat diskuteras studier av Jaffe, J., Finnerty, J., Fama, E. samt Lakonishok & Lee. Den teoretiska referensramen ligger till grund för författarnas egna hypoteser som testas med hjälp av statistiska analysmetoder. Strävan har varit att utifrån resultaten antingen kunna stärka eller försvaga tilliten till tidigare forskning vars slutsatser varit att det är möjligt att skapa överavkastning genom att imitera insiderhandeln. En tilläggande hypotes blev att en större insynshandel bör innehålla mer information om framtiden än en mindre transaktion och genom detta även skapa en högre avkastning.</p><p>En kvantitativ metod användes för att undersöka huruvida det är möjligt för privata investerare, utan insyn i företagen, att skapa en överavkastning genom att följa insiderhandeln.</p><p>Undersökningen gav inget enhetligt resultat vilket försvårar möjligheterna för att dra generella slutsatser. De signifikanta resultat som erhölls pekade dock i motsatt riktning i jämförelse med tidigare forskning. Studien tycks dock starkast peka på de risker som finns med att imitera insynspersoner.</p>

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Present value based asset pricing models are explored empirically in this thesis. Three contributions are made. First, it is shown that a market timing strategy may be implemented in an excessively volatile market such as the S&amp;P500. The main premise of the strategy is that asset prices may revert to the present value over time. The present value is computed in real-time where the present value variables (future dividends, dividend growth and the discount factor) are forecast from simple models. The strategy works well for monthly data and when dividends are forecast from autoregressive models. The performance of the strategy relies on how discount rates are empirically defined. When discount rates are defined by the rolling and recursive historic average of realized returns, the strategy performs well. The discount rate and dividend growth can also be derived using a structural approach. Using the Campbell and Shiller log-linearized present value equation, and assuming that expected and realized dividend growth are unit related, a state space model is constructed linking the price-dividend ratio to expected returns and expected dividend growth. The model parameters are estimated from the data and, are used to derive the filtered expected returns and expected dividend growth series. The present value is computed using the filtered series. The trading rule tends to perform worse in this case. Discount rates are again found to be the major determinant of its success. Although the structural approach offers a time series of discount rates which is less volatile, it is on average higher than that of the historical mean model. The filtered expected returns is a potential predictor of realized returns. The predictive performance of expected returns is compared to that of the price-dividend ratio. It is found that expected returns is not superior to the price-dividend ratio in forecasting returns both in-sample and out-of-sample. The predictive regression included both simple Ordinary Least Squares and Vector Autoregressions. The second contribution of this thesis is the modeling of expected returns using autoregressive fractionally integrated processes. According to the work of Granger and Joyeux(1980), aggregated series which are derived from utility maximization problems follow a Beta distribution. In the time series literature, it implies that the series may have a fractional order (I(d)). Autoregressive fractionally models may have better appeal than models which explicitly posit unit roots or no unit roots. Two models are presented. The first model, which incorporates an ARFIMA(p,d,q) within the present value through the state equations, is found to be highly unstable. Small sample size may be a reason for this finding. The second model involves predicting dividend growth from simple OLS models, and sequentially netting expected returns from the present value model. Based on the previous finding that expected returns may be a long memory process, the third contribution of this thesis derives a test of long memory based on the asymptotic properties of the variance of aggregated series in the context of the Geweke Porter-Hudak (1982) semiparametric estimator. The test makes use of the fact that pure long memory process will have the same autocorrelation across observations if the observations are drawn at repeated intervals to make a new series. The test is implemented using the Sieve-AR bootstrap which accommodates long range dependence in stochastic processes. The test is relatively powerful against both linear and nonlinear specifications in large samples.

Using detailed and unique data from Sweden, I show that former insiders trade profitably in the shares of companies with which they used to be affiliated. A trading strategy mimicking former insiders’ trading behavior yields abnormal returns of 7.6% per year. These returns are primarily driven by post-separation purchases rather than by sales. They do not reflect general stock-picking skills: former insiders earn significantly lower abnormal returns when trading in companies with which they have no affiliation. I show that former insiders’ informational advantage diminishes over time, but less so if they have ties to current insiders. The importance of such ties increases in the presence of value-relevant information. My results are consistent with former insiders benefiting from both a retained informational advantage and from inside information obtained post-separation when trading in inside stock.

How important is the financial market for economic growth? It can be argued that from the supply perspective that a well-functioning stock market boosts economic growth by lowering the cost of the firm to access public funds for new investment opportunities to expand business and production. Another view suggests that from the demand perspective that stock markets create a wealth effect on consumption for economic growth. In turn, the growth induces more demand for financial services and so the growth of the stock market. Both the supply and the demand argument imply a positive relationship between the stock market and the economy. Exactly how the behaviour of investors in trading stocks on a stock market can affect the performance of the firm is unclear. The study of this question helps to understand how stock trading activities can affect manufacturing production and so the growth of an economy from the perspective of the micro structure of a market. China as the largest emerging economy in the world has experienced the fastest growth of the economy and rapid development of its stock market over the last 30 years. It provides us with an excellent case to study the question on how the momentum of paper trading of shares can be transmitted to the growth of industry and firms which is a determined part of a real economy. The thesis takes China to study the question in an attempt to discover the micro mechanism of transmission as its key contribution to the existing literature on the study of the stock market effect on economic growth. The thesis employs a fixed effects model to estimate longitudinal firm-level data comprising 2233 heterogeneous Chinese listed firms over the period 2005-2015. In our estimation, it finds how stronger stock-trading performance can induce an increase in external funding of the firm. It then shows how the improvement in a firm's financing ability will turn to improvements in inter-firm reallocations of resources towards the more productive firms. However, the presence of equity over-trading appears to hinder the growth of firm business, possibly because the negative externalities of the speculative trading outweigh the effect of the positive externalities, such as excessive volatility that creates high risk of stock investment. Overall, empirically, the thesis establishes a micro-economic structure of transmission from stock trading activities to the growth of the firm. The structure explains the importance of stock markets on economic growth from the supply perspective of an economy.

Základy komoditního obchodování. Návod pro začínajícího komoditního obchodníka jak se rychle zorientovat v tradingu. Fungování futures kontraktů při využití margin a leverage. Využití technické a fundamentální analýzy v komoditním obchodování.

This thesis investigates key issues concerning how active equity fund managers add value: measuring alpha (Chapter 3), generating alpha (Chapters 4, 5 and 6) and transaction cost minimisation (Chapter 7). Chapter 3 proposes important methodological adjustments to the widely adopted benchmarking methodology of Daniel, Grinblatt, Titman and Wermers (1997). Applying this modified benchmark to a sample of active funds and simulated passive portfolios that mimic fund manager style characteristics, statistically lower tracking error is documented, compared with using the standard methodology. These findings suggest that improved specifications of characteristic benchmarks represent better methods in accurately quantifying fund manager skill. Chapter 4 examines a portfolio strategy which selects stocks using the undisclosed monthly holdings of Australian active funds. When considering a large range of strategies incorporating portfolio holdings information, the top performing strategies are robust to data-snooping and are economically and statistically significant when incorporating transaction costs. Accounting for look-ahead bias in the formation of a strategy, statistically significant alpha of at least 6.88 percent per year is found when following the best performing strategy holding 20 stocks or more in the previous month. Chapter 5 examines the relation of active equity fund managers location proximity to a stock??s corporate headquarter using portfolio holdings data. Contrary to much international research, this study reveals evidence inconsistent with a location advantage for Melbourne and Sydney-based funds. Chapter 6 examines retail investor trading on the Australian Stock Exchange. The performance of retail investors is highly heterogeneous: discount (non-discount) retail brokerage investors lose -0.59 (-0.05) percent intraday and experience negative (positive) returns over the subsequent year. These findings are inconsistent with retail investors exerting price pressure or providing liquidity to institutions. Chapter 7 examines whether equity fund managers use multiple brokers in a trade package in order to lower their price impact and brokerage costs. Using the daily trades of funds, multiple broker trades are not found to have lower costs compared to a single broker, even when controlling for the informativeness of the trade package and potential endogeneity. These findings suggest that fund managers do not lower their costs when using multiple brokers.