The purpose of this study is to study future trends in student enrollment, according to age , sex, grades, and school levels, for different geographic areas, and teacher demand for the elementary and secondary levels of school in Utah from 1970 to the year 2000. For the secondary level information is also given for student enrollment according to different subject areas and the future demand of teachers for these subject areas. Projections were prepared for single calendar years from 1970 to the year 2000. The projections for the school children were based on total population projections for the state, prepared at the Department of Sociology, Utah State University. Census data and school enrollment data were used to obtain information for future trends . The component method of population projection was used to project the total population for the state and the enrollment-ratio method was used to project the school population. With 98 percent of the school-age population, (5-17 years of age), now enrolled in school, future increases or decreases in the school population would mainly come from changes in fertility or migration. The general findings of this study for the period 1970-2000, show an increase of 50,398 students, (16 percent), and 2,124 teachers, (17 percent). Elementary student population increased by 30,599 students and 1,293 teachers, whereas the secondary school population increased by 19,799 students, and 831 teachers. The majority of students are concentrated wi thin four counties: Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber. In 1970 these counties comprised 77 percent of the school population and projected by the year 2000 to 82 percent.

For an education system to function effectively it is important that its planning functions are executed effectively and efficiently. Among others this implies that the system must know what the teacher supply and demand is and how it will change in time. If the teacher supply and demand is known it could result in sound intervention strategies being developed and implemented. Education planners will be able to plan for the number of bursaries to be awarded and in which subject fields; it will be known how many foreign teachers to employ and for which subjects. This is the basic rationale that underpins this study. This study explored the problem of teacher demand and supply in the Further Education and Training (FET) phase (Grades 10 to 12) in South Africa and offers a critical analysis of strategies adopted by Provincial Education Departments in an endeavour to diminish the demand for teachers, specifically for Mathematics and Science, in rural and poor schools. Initially the study involved a secondary data analysis to extrapolate the demand and supply of teachers in Mathematics and Science over the next ten years. The first key finding of the study was that the data needed for such an analysis does not exist in any reliable form that would facilitate the development of such a projection. What the study had to rely on was anecdotal evidence that suggests that a shortage of Mathematics and Science teachers does exist and that posts are often filled by unqualified and under-qualified staff. In the second phase of the research in which the study explored the effectiveness of strategies developed to address the shortage of Mathematics and Science teachers, a qualitative research approach was adopted within a descriptive interpretive design. The views and opinions of human resource managers responsible for post provisioning in schools were explored through in-depth interviews to understand the types of strategy adopted by the provinces, their potential to alleviate the problem of Mathematics and Science teacher shortage in Grades 10 to 12, their success, challenges and factors internal to the Department of Education that may deter Provincial Education Departments from achieving their objectives. The findings revealed that Provincial Education Departments (PEDs) do take heed of strategies developed by the national Department of Basic Education (DBE). However implementation is far removed from the original intention and no significant impact results. Although the reasons are not always obvious from this study, a few important aspects did emerge. First, the strategy developed may not be popular with a particular province - employing foreign teachers is a case in point. Secondly, focusing on just a number of schools to improve their results (e.g. as with the Dinaledi schools) may meet with resistance from educators and teachers’ unions. Thirdly, creating bursaries for initial teacher education in certain key areas can only be successful if the number of teachers in need is known. Finally, even the best strategies are doomed if post provisioning and appointment of staff are dealt with by different stakeholders. Based on the findings, it is recommended that both the DBE and PEDs ensure that quality education management information is collected and maintained. Information that is reliable and accurate will inform planning and key decisions to ensure that the supply of teachers is based on a specific need. As such, deficiencies in skills that are in short supply such as Science and Mathematics can be averted and better opportunities can be created for new teacher graduates. While an improved performance of learners in these subjects is requisite for related study fields at universities, the Dinaledi schools must be adequately supported and such a model applied to other schools. The employment of foreign teachers on short-term contracts does not create stability in schools, therefore, their employment must be standardised. Significantly, retention in rural and poor schools is a problem since they struggle to attract quality teachers; for that reason teacher incentives are indispensable. Making a declaration for unqualified and under-qualified teachers to acquire professional teaching qualifications and subsequently discontinue such appointments, will raise the standard of teaching and learning in schools. Rather, databases of unemployed qualified teachers could be maintained and such information made accessible to school principals. In the absence of reliable data that can indicate teacher qualification and specialisation versus subject taught, the extent to which Mathematics and Science are taught by unqualified and under-qualified teachers as well as out-of-specialisation teaching, is not known. However, poor pass rates in these subjects at the exit point of the schooling system (Grade 12) attest to the lack of appropriately skilled teacher workforce. Therefore, if Mathematics and Science specialisation is required, then strategies being implemented by the DBE and PEDs must have a clear purpose to address this shortage. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / lk2014 / Education Management and Policy Studies / PhD / Unrestricted