The thesis is concerned with the design and optimization of a trading strategy on currency markets in order to maximize profit on the EURUSD currency pair. The strategy is based on standard technical indicators and is tested in demo account environment. The thesis describes the whole development from initial design to an optimized version of the draft.

This study performs a comparative analysis and evaluates the impact of different Relative Strenght Index (RSI) and stop loss configurations on a trading algorithm based on candlesticks patterns. It is tested on both the Swedish OMXS30 market and the UK FTSE100 market. By tweaking the configurations, RSI and stop loss was found to have a substantial impact on the performance of the algorithm. On both OMXS30 and FTSE100 markets the difference between configurations was shown to be significant / Denna studie gör en jämförelse och analyserar olika Relative Strenght Index (RSI) och stop loss-konfigurationers påverkan på en tradingalgoritm som är baserad på candlestick patterns. Algoritmen är testad på svenska OMXS30 och brittiska FTSE100. Genom att testa olika konfigurationer blev slutsatsen att RSI och stop loss hade en stor påverkar på algoritmens resultat. På både OMXS30 och FTSE100 var skillnaden mellan konfigurationerna signifikant.

It is generally accepted in academic circles that the developed country capital markets with their advanced infra-structure, depth and liquidity are at a minimum Weak-Form efficient. Since the Weak-Form EMH proposes that current security prices immediately assimilate all historical information, it therefore also implies that technical analysis (which relies on charts and analysis of past price patterns to extrapolate future price movements) would be a futile exercise. Yet technical analysis has endured over time and is still an intensively and widely used investment analysis technique. This indicates a clear disconnect between technical analysis as employed by practitioners in the market and the technical analysis methodologies utilized by academics in prior Weak-Form EMH studies. The problem is prior technical analysis Weak-Form EMH studies were burdened with methodological weaknesses which severely handicapped the profit generating potential of technical analysis and suggest that previous Weak-Form EMH research findings were erroneous in being unable to reject the null Weak- Form market efficiency hypothesis. This study addresses the problem by eliminating prior methodological weaknesses and utilizing high frequency intra-day data, the combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques and volume signals to develop a portfolio of Intermarket Momentum technical analysis strategies that generate significant excess profits. The objective of this study is therefore to provide evidence that contrary to prior research findings, the developed country capital markets are not Weak-Form efficient. The results show that the portfolio of Intermarket Momentum trading strategies generated returns in excess of the market with a significantly positive Alpha of 8.52% that allowed the rejection of the Null Hypothesis and the acceptance of the Alternative Hypothesis that the developed country capital markets are not Weak-Form efficient, thereby refuting the widely accepted EMH. / Business Management / D.B.L.

This masters thesis is based on study of technical analysis of financial markets, i.e. analysis of dependencies between past and present price data, especially when it comes to "supports" and "resistances" or historical price levels where price recently tended to stop and reverse. First of all, summary of the most relevant literature on technical analysis is presented, together with literature on psychology of investing, behavioral finance and market efficiency. Following that, theoretical arguments in favor of possible edge in trading of technical levels are introduced and possible objections are addressed. This theory - in the form of several thousands of unique but similar trading strategies - is then tested on historical data of the most important financial assets. Results are compared to those of conservative buy-and-hold strategy and random trading. We reached the conclusion that trading based on technical price levels brings positive capital gains which are better than those achieved by random trading and buy-and-hold strategy. Parameters of our strategies influence the results in expectable manner more often than not.

The aim of the Thesis is to determine the influence of technical analysis to the profitability of shares by O2 Telefónica, Komerční banka and ČEZ whan applied to a predeterminated trading model and judge the validity of Efective Markets Theory. It will be also followed up the influence of trading signals of technical indicators on the shape and characteristics of conditional distribution set by those signals. The Crystal Ball was used as the main software tool. This software dispose of all tools necesarry for the analysis. There is also desribed the theoretical background of areas like shares, technical analysis, random quantity distribution, generating of random numbers and other related areas in the Thesis, so the reader who does not understand the problemacy could understand the best.

The aim of this thesis is to examine the dependence of the exchange rate movement on the core fundamentals of the economy in the long term, as well as to test the validity of selected indicators of technical analysis in the short term. The dependence of the exchange rate will be examined using correlation and the discussed fundamentals are the main macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, short-term interest rates and money base M2. In the part, which deals with the technical analysis, I will test the two groups of indicators, namely trend indicators and oscillators. From the first group it will be simple moving average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the weighted moving average (WMA), the triangular moving average (TMA) and MACD. From the group of oscillators I will test the relative strength index (RSI). All these indicators will be first described in the theoretical part of this thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts - theoretical and practical. The theoretical part includes two chapters which deals with the analysis of the Forex market. The first chapter deals with fundamental analysis. The second chapter deals with technical analysis. In the third chapter I will discuss both methods in practice, with emphasis on technical analysis.

Os transformadores para instrumentos (TIs) são equipamentos essenciais para a realização das funções de medição e de proteção nos sistemas elétricos de potência. O mau funcionamento dos TIs nos sistemas de proteção pode provocar tanto atuações indevidas como falhas de operação e, em ambos os casos, acarretará prejuízos à concessionária ou a terceiros, podendo, ainda, serem gerados danos materiais ou pessoais. Quando os transformadores de corrente (TCs) ou de potencial (TPs) estão instalados em sistemas de medição para faturamento e não funcionam com a precisão necessária, milhares ou milhões de reais podem ser perdidos por ano, seja por quem vende a energia, seja por quem a compra. O presente estudo, analisa a viabilidade (ou possibilidade) da utilização de TIs ópticos no sistema elétrico de potência brasileiro. Foram realizados comparativos técnicos e econômicos entre os TIs convencionais e os ópticos, sendo que no aspecto econômico são analisadas situações em que maus funcionamentos (ou falhas) dos TIs convencionais podem causar prejuízos às concessionárias. São apresentados levantamentos de dados indicativos das quantidades de TIs em uso e dos preços de aquisição desses equipamentos. Também é apresentado o resultado de uma enquete que avaliou o grau de familiaridade que os engenheiros do setor elétrico brasileiro tem com a tecnologia de TIs ópticos. O trabalho apurou que os TIs ópticos demonstram superioridades técnicas e econômicas frente aos TIs convencionais, mas que, para que eles sejam utilizados mais amplamente nas subestações, além de uma maior divulgação dos mesmos por parte de seus fabricantes, ainda são necessários esforços de adaptação e/ou aplicação de novas tecnologias que facilitem a conexão dos TIs ópticos aos sistemas de proteção e medição em uso. O trabalho indica também que esse problema, no futuro, deverá ser eliminado com a natural modernização das subestações e com a implantação de redes de comunicação aderentes à norma IEC 61850-9-2. / The instruments transformers (ITs) are essential equipment to perform the measurement and protection functions in electrical power systems. The malfunctioning of ITs in protection systems can cause undue actuations as well as operation failures and, in both cases, the utilities or third parties will face financial losses and, also, personal or material damages can be generated. When current transformers (CTS) or potential transformers (PTs) are used for revenue metering applications and do not work with the necessary precision, thousands or millions of reais may be lost per year, either by those who sell energy, or by whom purchase it. This study examines the viability of optical ITs applications in brazilian electric power systems. Technical and economical comparisons between conventional and optical ITs were carried out, and economic aspects of situations in which malfunctions (or failures) of conventional ITs can cause financial losses to utilities are discussed. Data about quantities and prices of conventional ITs in use in Brazil are shown. Also, results of a research evaluating the familiarity of engineers working in electric power utilities with the optical ITs technology are presented. The study found that optical ITs have shown technical and economical superiorities over conventional ITs, but, in order to be widely used in substations there are still needed adaptation efforts and/or application of new technologies that facilitate the connection of optical ITs to protection and measurement systems already in use. The present work also indicates that this problem, in the future, should be eliminated by natural modernization of substations and the installation of communication networks compliant to the IEC 61850-9-2 standard.

A versatilidade do mercado de opções o torna atrativo para diversos perfis de investidores. Especuladores e hedgers dispõem de uma grande variedade de estratégias e conseguem modelar uma relação risco-retorno apropriada para o seu perfil de investimento. Operar nesse mercado, no entanto, exige do investidor muito cuidado em suas análises, já que uma operação malsucedida pode ter um efeito muito mais desastroso do que no mercado à vista. Surge, então, o interesse no uso da Análise Gráfica, como uma poderosa ferramenta de reconhecimento de tendências, para a identificação de melhores oportunidades de operação. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a eficiência da aplicação da Análise Gráfica no mercado de opções. A estratégia adotada foi a de realizar operações com opções a partir da Análise Gráfica dos ativos no mercado à vista. Foram estudadas séries históricas das cotações da Petrobras PN (2004 a 2008), Telemar PN (2004 a 2006) e Vale do Rio Doce PNA (2006 a 2008). Foram identificadas 79 oportunidades de operação e seus resultados variaram entre um prejuízo de 95,72% e um lucro de 801,96%. Os resultados sugerem que operar no mercado de opções a partir da Análise Gráfica dos ativos no mercado à vista pode ser uma estratégia muito lucrativa, desde que alguns cuidados fundamentais sejam tomados para amenizar a exposição ao grande risco imposto pelas operações com opções. / The versatility of the options market makes it attractive to investors of various profiles. Speculators and hedgers hold a great variety of strategies and manage to model an appropriate risk-return relationship which fits their investment profile. Nevertheless, in order to trade in this market, an investor must be very careful in his analysis, once an unsuccessful trade might have a much more disastrous effect than in the stock market. It comes to light, then, the interest in the usage of the Technical Analysis as a powerful tool for spotting trends in order to identify the best trade opportunities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the application of the Technical Analysis in the options market. The adopted strategy was to trade options based on the Technical Analysis of its underlying instrument. A variety of historical prices of Petrobras PN (2004 to 2008), Telemar PN (2004 to 2006) and Vale do Rio Doce PNA (2006 to 2008) were studied. Seventy-nine trade opportunities were identified and their results varied from a 95.72% loss to an 801.96% profit. The results suggest that trading in the options market based on the Technical Analysis of its underlying instrument might be a very profitable strategy, provided that some fundamental precautions are taken in order to minimize the exposure to the great risk presented by the options trading.

This thesis deals with the Forex and trading on it. The aim of this work is to evaluate the possibility of trading primarily for retail investors, for which this financial market is becoming increasingly popular. In the first two chapters, Forex, its characteristic and information about trading are presented. In the next chapter, analysis of exchange rate development is described , both fundamental and technical. More attention is paid to technical analysis. The demonstration of application of technical analysis is presented. The last chapter deals with comparing the selected trading platforms in terms of availability, technical analysis and trading opportunities.

The paper reacts to tremendous increase in popularity of FX trading among retail investors in recent years, caused mainly by easy accessibility through numerous online trading platforms and dramatic fall in trading costs. One of the accompanying trends along with increasing trading speed is a departure from fundamental analysis and shift towards more technical approach. In reaction to that, the paper aims to review the most popular technical trading rules and puts the findings in contrast with existing empirical literature and efficient market hypothesis. Although being far from discovering an ultimate trading formula, the paper concludes that selected trading strategies do demonstrate a certain degree of predictability of future exchange rate movements.