Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 60-63). / While large scale diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is widely anticipated, the mechanisms that determine their success or failure are ill understood. Analysis of an AFV transition model developed at MIT has revealed that AFV diffusion dynamics are particularly sensitive to consumer consideration as influenced by social exposure to AFVs. While some empirical research in this area exists, uncertainty regarding these social exposure parameters remains high. Following principles of partial model testing, this research examines social exposure parameters, with a focus on empirical accounts of diffusion involving diesel passenger vehicles in Europe. The research uses the historical data of diesel sales in six European countries. To complete diffusion datasets the research generates synthetic data in early stages of diffusion. The results from the calibrations yield parameters that are in line with other marketing studies. These findings help reduce uncertainty regarding social exposure parameters in the automotive industry. Further, bootstrapping confidence intervals are conducted to test the reliability of the parameter estimate. Challenges and avenues about building confidence in parameter estimate and data analysis are discussed. / by Qi Zhang. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 159-164). / This thesis aims to aid in the understanding of capital budgeting techniques for infrastructure developments. In particular, it analyzes: Net Present Value (NPV), Decision Analysis (DA) and Real Options Analysis (ROA), and compares these approaches in terms of their treatment of uncertainty, their acknowledgement of flexibility, and their usefulness for strategic decisionmaking. The comparison of these alternative methodologies is based on a literature review highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, complemented by a system study of the expansion of the water supply system for Bogota, Colombia. This study illustrates the application of each methodology and identifies the policy challenges relevant to infrastructure investment evaluation in Colombia and other emerging economies. The study confirms the hypothesis that NPV is inadequate for the evaluation of projects in uncertain environments, mainly because it does not account for the value generated by flexibility. The study also recognizes that although the ROA approach is theoretically superior in the pricing of flexibility, its implementation requires information usually not available for infrastructure assets. This rends the results of the analyses imprecise and complicates the process of identifying an optimal strategy. The study finds the Decision Analysis approach preferable for the evaluation of Bogota's water supply expansion projects, based on its practicality and ease of communication. The thesis also sets forth a framework for choosing the most appropriate capital budgeting technique for other infrastructure developments. This framework is based on data quality and availability and the objective function of the analysis to be conducted. / S.M.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 1998. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 209-211). / by Joshua I. Bernstein. / M.S.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 112-115). / The convergence of Digital Economy, Globalization, and Knowledge-based Economy, creates the potential for Global Knowledge Networks and e-Knowledge Commerce. "The e-knowledge markets will grow to be a $1 trillion global micro-economy by 2010," estimated by Kaieteur Institute For Knowledge Management in 2000. The next wave of growth is likely to be associated with E-Knowledge Commerce, far exceeding the ECommerce. However, up to date, significant disconnections exist among Digital Economy, Knowledge-based Economy, and Globalization. e-Knowledge Commerce is too new to have business models to exist in either the business world or literatures. This thesis tries to fill this significant gap, by focusing on a new type of global institutional development, known as Global Knowledge Network, by defining its characteristic features and formulating the relevant 'best business models.' More specifically, this thesis (a) determines and formulates business models relevant for different types of e-Knowledge Commerce, and (b) explores how to develop the functionality of a Global Knowledge Network such as Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD) in the context of e-Knowledge Commerce. Furthermore, this thesis examines the policy and legal issues in e-Knowledge Commerce & Global Knowledge Network, such as intellectual property right, customer privacy, digital trusted system, security such as firewalls, encryption, watermark, etc. Finally, draws conclusions about e-Knowledge Commerce & Global Knowledge Network and provides some recommendations for further research work. / by Biao Huang. / S.M.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 148-151). / by Robert S. Rogers, III. / M.S.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 163-169). / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Software radio (SR) is a new technology where signal-processing software running over general-purpose hardware platforms performs the radio functions. This approach promises to solve the issues that traditional radios face today, enhance competitiveness and accelerate the development of wireless communications. Lots of expectations have been put on SR. Nevertheless, SR is a still developing technology whose capabilities and implications have not been deeply studied. This thesis puts some clarity on the impact of SR through four steps: first, considering the technical constraints of SR and how they may affect its evolution; second, evaluating the SR benefits assuming that there are neither regulatory nor economic hurdles; third, analyzing the impact of SR on the stakeholders; and fourth, discussing the current regulatory framework and proposing changes to reduce barriers to SR development. This thesis finds that SR capabilities may be applied to multiple commercial sectors. A/D converters and semiconductors capacity limit the full implementation of these scenarios. Battery life is a further problem for SR devices. SR disrupts the traditional wireless value chain: general-purpose processors will capture market share from dedicated semiconductors; traditional radio manufacturers will compete against general-purpose platforms vendors, operating system designers and software programmers. Such changes modify the upper layers. In the cellular industry, SR reduces deployment costs in at least 33% per standard and operation costs in at least 47% per standard, promotes VMNOs, modifies the business model of players like site owners and improves roaming. In the short-term, FCC certification rules may damage SR development and adoption. In the long-term, software radio might provide the means to relax the need for standardization and improve spectrum management policies. / by Maria Fuencisla Merino Artalejo. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-105). / Municipal electric utilities have been increasingly involved in telecommunications during the last decade. This research investigates why, with three hypotheses. First, the probability of MEUs involvement in telecommunications responds to technology-based economies of scope from internal services deployed to support their power business. Second, MEUs' likelihood for offering telecommunication services decreases in presence of restrictive regulatory framework and low levels of local discretionary authority (LDA). Third, MEUs involvement in telecommunications decreases in the presence of competitive alternatives. The hypotheses are tested using quantitative response models, controlling for deployment cost and demographic characteristics. Results confirm the existence of a technology-push generated by economies of scope between internal services supporting the power business and offering external telecommunication services. One reason for this, as qualitative analysis supports, would be the uniqueness of MEU communities as resulting from historical and technological path-dependence, which makes the MEU phenomenon unlikely to be repeated by local governments in non-MEU communities. Additionally, results support that MEUs' likelihood for offering telecommunication services is reduced by regulations explicitly prohibiting it, but shows that low LDA, as measured by Dillon's Rule, does not have a significant effect. Results show a complex effect for competition. MEUs likelihood for offering telecom services in residential markets decreases with cable modem competition, but their activity in business market increases with competition from DSL. This suggests that MEUs' services substitute for cable television companies', but are non-redundant / (cont.) relative to telephone companies. Results support the need for further research, especially in competition and deployment dynamics and their effects. Based on these results, the recent US Supreme Court decision on Nixon vs. Missouri Municipal League and stakeholder analysis suggest various policy implications. First, APPA and MEUs need to build a broader coalition for active lobbying the US Congress for clarification on Section 253(a) of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, and states' legislatures for passing explicit authorizations for MEUs' involvement in telecommunications. Second, states and MEUs need to assess how banning MEUs from telecommunications would affect the reliability of power distribution and underserved areas. Finally, states, MEUs and private parties would need to better understand, evaluate and innovate in policies and public-private collaborative initiatives for taking advantage of the mutual potential benefits existing between power distribution and telecommunication services. / by Carlos A. Osorio Urzúa. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 152-161). / by Tao Wang. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 170-176). / Detailers are one of the most powerful components of pharmaceutical marketing. Drug manufactures spend a lion's share of their marketing budgets on their detailers, and with direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing coming under closer scrutiny, it is likely that detailing will receive even more funding in the coming years. This thesis analyzes how differences in detailing regulations in the United States, United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, and France lead to differences in the promotion and sales of antinausea, antihypertensive, and antipsychotic medications during the time period of 1992 to 2003. In order to determine if promotional efforts vary across generations of medications in the same therapeutic class, antinausea and antipsychotic medications are classified as new and old generations and antihypertensives are classified as new, middle, and old generations in this study. Qualitative and quantitative methods are used to examine population, economic, price, promotional, regulatory, and cultural factors that contribute to the sales of pharamaceutical products. The qualitative discussion includes an overview of all five sample countries' health care systems, health care policies, and the prevalence of hypertension, cancer incidence, and psychosis. / (cont.) Econometric tools are used to conduct the quantitative analysis. The effect on pharmaceutical sales and the diffusion of new generation pharmaceutical products is examined. Chow tests are conducted for cross-country differences. This study finds that there are significant cross-country differences in the diffusion of the three therapeutic classes in the five sample countries examined in this thesis. The different factors examined contribute to diffusion in varying extents in the five sample countries. Culture is found to play an important role in the sale and use of all three therapeutic classes, but an especially crucial role in the case of antipsychotics. The promotional factors appear to play a significant role in the diffusion of new generation products relative to older generation products, but are not found to have a statistically significant effect on the larger therapeutic level. / by Jayeeta Kundu. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 56-60). / The biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen has critical implications for all life on earth. The Haber-Bosch process (1909) paved the way for the industrial fixation of NH3 from unreactive atmospheric dinitrogen, a phenomenon previously restricted to the enzyme nitrogenase and to a lesser extent lightning. Perhaps the most profoundly catalytic invention of the 20th century, Haber-Bosch has greatly increased the global anthropogenic throughput of nitrogen that now rivals the 160 million metric tons fixed annually via nitrogenase. Notably 40% of the world's 6 billion people alive today owe their body's kilogram of nitrogen to synthetic fertilizer created via the Haber-Bosch process (Smil 2001). The intensification of agriculture and the growth of urban centers during the 20th century has also resulted in substantive increases in nitrogen loads to the environment. Nitrogen transported by surface and groundwater is ultimately concentrated in rivers and coastal areas, with consequences such as eutrophication and the "dead zones" of hypoxia found throughout the world. Microbial metabolism of nitrogen via the nitrification and denitrification pathways also produces N20, a potent greenhouse gas currently responsible for 5% of total atmospheric radiative forcing. / (cont.) This thesis examines the environmental implications of increased nitrogen throughput and the regulatory frameworks that are evolving to cope with nitrogen pollution. A case study of the Aberjona river, draining a heavily polluted urban watershed north of Boston, is examined in terms of the correlation between urban intensity and nitrogen yields (r2=0.79), the internal processing of nitrogen via major biological pathways, and the role of legacy pollutants as a source of nitrogen. The high fraction of organic nitrogen (34% of TOT N export) suggests that the effects of urban intensification are not limited to the export of inorganic species, and should be included in urban nitrogen budgets for effective watershed management. / by Matthew Orosz. / S.M.