Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2008. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-69). / Global climate change is one of the most complex problems that human kind will face during the 21st century. Long delays in changing greenhouse gas emissions and in the response of the climate to anthropogenic forcing mean action to limit the risks of "dangerous interference with the climate system" must begin now, before further impacts of climate change are observed. However, research shows even well educated adults do not understand the time delays and other basic stock and flow dynamics of the climate, resulting in widespread belief that action to limit emissions can be delayed. Poor intuitive understanding of the dynamic structure of climate change has important consequences for building public support for mitigation policies. We introduce an interactive simulation designed to improve people's understanding of climate change dynamics and influence their attitude towards mitigation action. We report results of an experiment using the simulator in an interactive workshop with highly educated adults. Results show a positive shift in participant opinion about the urgency of emissions reductions and improved performance on tasks involving stocks and flows in the context of climate change. / by Juan Francisco Martin Aguirre. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2010. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-88). / The cell phone industry is growing at a vertiginous pace. It has a life-changing impact on individuals and businesses in developing countries, where it can make up for the lack of infrastructure. In Latin America, the cell phone supply chain faces challenges specific to developing countries. Success in these environments requires creative solutions and adaptable supply chains. Ecuador is no exception, and the rapid evolution of the industry over the last decade has led to various changes in the supply chain of mobile devices. This thesis characterizes the supply chain challenges faced by the cell phone industry in Latin America. Key challenges characterizing emerging markets are highlighted. By using the case of a leading wireless network service provider in Ecuador, the document explores changes in the supply chain structure resulting from the evolution of its relationship with a supply chain solutions company, Brightstar. This evolution is represented by three different cell phone supply chains. The supply chains provide examples of responses to the supply chain challenges. The performances of the supply chains are compared based on the notion of responsiveness. To this end, system dynamics is used as a tool to analyze the different systems and the dynamics in action. Based on this analysis, recommendations are formulated regarding the current supply chain structure. / by Santolina Savannet. / S.M.in Technology and Policy

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 50-52). / Climate change generates a conflict between generations: while it is in the interest of the current generation to continue to exploit inexpensive carbon-based fuel to drive economic growth, it is in the interest of future generations that we reduce our carbon emissions by making these fuels more expensive. This raises the following question: what moral framework should we use to adjudicate between the interests of different generations? In this work, I argue that the commonly used framework of "cost-benefit analysis"-the analytic framework for public policy that developed out of the field of welfare economics-fails as a normative framework for intergenerational policy. For one, by aggregating costs and benefits across all generations, it ignores that what matters is each generation. For another, by reducing all value into a unitary objective function, it ignores important distinctions between different categories of moral claims. Third, by attempting to optimize a function across all time, it reflects a false sense of knowledge about the distant future. For all these reasons-and more-I conclude that this approach cannot offer a reasonable normative framework for intergenerational public policy. In its stead, I propose an "intergenerational threshold" principle which avoids aggregating generations together, gives space for different categories of value, and, I will argue, is more robust to the epistemic limitations of intergenerational policy analysis. / by Nathan R. Lee. / S.M. in Technology and Policy

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2010. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 73-76). / Successful air transport systems must satisfy the demand for flights while maintaining a high level of service and safety. For airports, which have limited capacities, policy-makers must compromise between maximizing the number of flights served and avoiding excessive delays. Differences between policies adopted in the US and in Europe result in distinct airport performances, the analysis of which reveals best practices. The first point of comparison is over the capacities of a set of the busiest airports in the US and Europe. Under radar-based air traffic control procedures, Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), American airports achieve equal or higher capacities than European airports with similar runway layouts. These discrepancies cannot be explained by the differences in separation requirements alone. Besides, through their extensive use of Visual Flight Rules (VFR), weather permitting, American airports gain an important premium on their capacities. US air traffic control practices and policies clearly result in a more efficient use of airport infrastructure. Second, arrival delays relative to schedule increase over the course of the day at the US airports, while they remain mostly constant in Europe. Similarly the distributions of these delays show that schedule reliability at airports is significantly better in Europe than in the US. These comparisons underscore the benefits of Europe's policy of airport slot-controls, which cap the number of aircraft movements at a declared capacity. Moreover, arrival delays in the US are much higher under IFR (23 minutes average) than VFR (9 minutes). This shows that the high variability of the capacity of US airports depending on weather conditions, coupled with the tendency toward over-scheduling of flights, is damaging to the national airport system's stability and reliability. From these comparisons stem a few policy recommendations. Airline schedule reliability might benefit from additional controls or economic incentives to rationalize the scheduling of aircraft movements at some US airports. At the same time, some European airports could benefit from increasing their declared capacities. More generally, European aviation authorities should consider relaxing air traffic control separation procedures along the lines of US practices. / by Thomas Morisset. / S.M.in Technology and Policy

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2015. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 137-147). / Shale gas and tight oil are energy resources of growing importance to the U.S. and the world. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled economically feasible production from these resources, leading to a surge in domestic oil and gas production. This is providing an economic boon and reducing reliance on foreign sources of energy in the U.S., but there are still a number of environmental, economic, and technical challenges that must be overcome to unlock the resource's full potential. One key challenge is understanding variability in individual well performance-in terms of both drilling time (a key driver of well cost) and well productivity-which has led to greater than anticipated economic risk associated with shale gas and tight oil development. Thus far, more reliable forecasting has remained elusive due to its prohibitive cost and the poorly understood nature of the resource. There is an opportunity to make use of available drilling and production data to improve the characterization of variability. For my analysis, I use publicly-available well production data and drilling reports from a development campaign. In order to characterize variability, I use a combination of graphical, statistical, and data analytics methods. For well productivity, I use probability plots to demonstrate a universality to the distribution shape, which can accurately be described as lognormal. Building on this distributional assumption, I demonstrate the utility of Bayesian statistical inference for improving estimates of the distribution parameters, which will allow companies to better anticipate resource variability and make better decisions under this uncertainty. For drilling, I characterize variability in operations by using approximate string matching to compare drilling activity sequences, leading to a metric for operational variability. Activity sequences become more similar over time, consistent with the notion of standardization. Finally, I investigate variability of drilling times as they progress along the learning curve, using probability plots again. I find some indication of lognormality, with implications for how learning in drilling should be measured and predicted. This thesis emphasizes the relevance of data analytics to characterizing performance variability across the spectrum in shale gas and tight oil. The findings also demonstrate the value of such an approach for identifying patterns of behavior, estimating future variability, and guiding development strategies. / by Justin B. Montgomery. / S.M. in Technology and Policy

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2014. / 260 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 52-64). / The emerging field of synthetic biology is developing rapidly and promises diverse applications. Many anticipated applications, particularly those involving release of engineered microbes into the environment or human bodies, have potential environmental and health implications. These implications, which present design challenges to engineers, stem from organisms' potential for competitiveness with natural strains upon entering an environment, their tendency to evolve new characteristics after leaving the lab, and their propensity to exchange genetic material with other organisms they encounter. The field's rapid evolution and the substantial uncertainties in the technology and relevant sciences present challenges to regulators seeking to ensure health and environmental wellbeing. Regulations exhibiting planned adaptation are especially suited to such contexts of uncertainty. However, the synthetic biology applications first nearing commercialization are regulated by the EPA under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), which was not written to be adaptive. EPA regulators appear to be using TSCA adaptively even though it was not written this way. An examination of characteristics of planned adaptation using the EPA program for ambient air standards as a case study suggests more that the regulators may be able to do to regulate synthetic biology effectively by using TSCA adaptively. Due to statutory language and court history, TSCA is essentially incapable of imposing restrictions or setting standards. Examination of the emerging algal biofuels industry as a case study suggests that concepts of industry-favored regulation may be useful to the EPA for fashioning strong regulations that would promote real health and environmental wellbeing. / by Shlomiya Lightfoot. / S.M. in Technology and Policy

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)-- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2012. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 116-121). / Air pollution and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are desirable to reduce smog, tropospheric concentrations of ozone precursors, acid rain, and other adverse effects on human health, the environment, and the economy. While reduction of both air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions is often attained through economic instruments such as taxes, caps, and other regulation, emission controls in both developed and developing countries often achieves reduction through policies that target air pollution and greenhouse gases separately. However, because the emissions of both air pollution and greenhouse gases are often intrinsically linked to the same sources, any attempt to design policies to optimally achieve desired reduction goals must consider the complex socioeconomic interactions that produce both kinds of emissions as they collectively react to regulatory constraints. Integrated assessment models have often been used as tools to inform policy design by representing the interactions between technology, economics, policy, and the environment within a self-contained framework. Many contemporary integrated assessment models consider emissions of greenhouse gases while others also consider air pollution emissions. While greenhouse gas reduction opportunities are often represented endogenously in the models through the availability of backstop technologies such as carbon capture and storage or by shifts away from carbon intensive to less carbon intensive production, representation of air pollutant reduction has largely been represented within integrated assessment models exogenously based on empirically observed trends. By treating air pollution reduction opportunities exogenously, such models are unable to represent many key considerations important to policy design including the true economic impact of air pollutant reduction policy, the impact such policies may have on the market penetration of backstop energy production technologies, and the ancillary co-benefits of air pollution policy on greenhouse gas emission reduction. To overcome current limitations imposed by exogenous representation of air pollution abatement, I develop a new method for representing air pollutant abatement opportunities endogenously within an integrated assessment model designed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. CGE models are often used to simulate macroeconomic activity based on microeconomic theory and are well suited for emission policy analysis because of their ability to represent the interactions between multiple economic regions and sectors, to connect emission sources to economic activity, and to accommodate a large degree of technological detail not captured by other macroeconomic models. Using this new method, I demonstrate how the parameters needed to represent the abatement opportunities are derived from engineering data on specific abatement technologies available within each economic sector and for distinct fuel types as air pollution is largely generated through the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels. With both the methodology and parameterization established, I represent sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide abatement opportunities in the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model and compare model results with previous representations of air quality pollutant reduction methodologies based on exogenous trends. An example of how the model predicts co-benefits for C0₂ reduction and policy costs in China is then presented. Overall, the new model demonstrates the ability to fully capture important effects relevant to policy design not captured in integrated assessment models where air pollution abatement is exogenously represented. / by Caleb J. Waugh. / S.M.in Technology and Policy

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2009. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 102-107). / In Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), private partners assume more responsibility for public projects than in traditional approaches. The larger responsibility of the private partner is expected to improve efficiencies of the project. However, it also increases potential challenges such as conflicts of interest. If the dynamic structures which cause challenges in PPPs are identified, they will help to predict potential challenges in future PPP projects. Therefore, this research develops a dynamics model of which challenges arise in the application of PPP approaches to space projects. The PPP dynamics model is illustrated by using system dynamics modeling. In the first step, this research develops a traditional-approach model. In the second step, it proposes the PPP model, which is a modification of the traditional-approach model. In the third step, this research tests the PPP model by applying it to four space-related PPP cases: the European navigation system Galileo, the Japanese navigation system QZSS, the Japanese launch vehicle GX, and the U.S. launch vehicle families EELV. The PPP model passes these four tests. In the PPP model, three variables play important roles: conflicts of interest among parties, user satisfaction, and the private partner's revenue risk. The three variables represent interests of stakeholders such as the public sector, private partners, and users. Conflicts of interest among parties increase cost schedule inefficiencies. More cost schedule inefficiencies lead to less user satisfaction. Less user satisfaction results in more revenue risk for the private partner. More revenue risk for the private partner leads to more conflicts of interest among parties. / (cont.) Thus, the interaction of stakeholder interests forms a reinforcing loop unique to PPPs. Additionally, unexpected technical and demand problems strengthen the reinforcement. This reinforcing loop and these unexpected problems are the inherent sources of challenges in space-related PPP projects. Lessons for improving the dynamic structures of space-related PPPs are (1) to set cost saving as the primary goal, (2) to choose the government customer market, and (3) to adopt conservative technical and demand forecasts. Based on these lessons, this research proposes that potential missions suitable for future space-related PPPs might be telecommunication, Earth observation, and meteorological monitoring for governments' use. / by Masafumi Hashimoto. / S.M.in Technology and Policy

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2011. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 106-113). / The air transportation system is a vital infrastructure that enables economic growth and provides significant social benefits. Future increases and volatility in crude oil prices, as well as environmental charges, are likely to increase the effective cost of fuel. I investigate the impacts of effective fuel cost increase on the US air transportation system historically and perform a game theory analysis of the impact of manufacturer competition on the introduction of new, more fuel efficient aircraft. The cost of jet fuel increased 244% between July 2004 and July 2008, providing a natural experiment to evaluate how fuel price increase affected continental US networks and fleets. It was found that non-hub airports serving small communities lost 12% of connections, compared to a system-wide average loss of 2.8%. Increased effective fuel costs will provide incentives for airlines to improve fleet fuel efficiency, reducing the environmental impacts of aviation, but may cause an uneven distribution of social and economic impacts if small communities suffer greater loss of mobility. Government action may be required to determine acceptable levels of access as the system transitions to higher fuel costs. Technology innovation may act as a long-term hedge against increasing effective fuel costs, enabling mobility to be maintained. The single aisle commercial aircraft market segment is the largest, but has the longest running product lines. I hypothesize that competition has important effects on manufacturers' decisions to innovate that must be considered when designing policies to reduce fleet emissions. An aircraft program valuation model is developed to estimate expected payoffs to manufacturers under competitive scenarios. A game theory analysis demonstrates how the incentives to innovate may be altered by subsidies, technology forcing regulations, increased effective fuel costs, the threat of new entrants, and long-term competitive strategies. Increased competition may result in incumbent manufacturers producing re-engined aircraft while increased effective fuel costs may result in new aircraft programs. Incumbents' optimal strategies may be to delay the entry of new single aisle aircraft until 2020-24, unless technology forcing regulations are implemented. / by James K. D. Morrison. / S.M.in Technology and Policy

Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2017. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (page 36). / New trends are shaping the telecommunications, media and technology (TMT) industries. Consumers are demanding to be connected anytime to hundreds of thousands of applications that are one click away. In addition, loyalty levels are decreasing and customers do not hesitate to switch providers if they do not receive value for their money. Because of this, churn management is a key driver of profits. However, few companies excel at churn management and most underestimate its impact. The thesis is focused on describing a technological solution targeted to improve churn management capabilities within companies that belong to the TMT sector and explore the opportunities and hurdles of selling this kind of solution in a B2B context. The hypothesis is that a world class churn management solution can effectively deploy statistical models to score customers by their likelihood to churn and execute targeted treatments for each segment through the operator service channels. The study will focus on how behavioral analytics and machine learning can increase customer's life time value and boost margins in TMT companies. Throughout the research, I will describe the best practices within the industry to establish a state of the art churn management solution. / by Ignacio Aberg Cobo. / S.M.