Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-88). / Wholesale electricity in the U.S. and many other countries is increasingly being supplied by unregulated firms competing to sell their product in competitive markets. Developers of the new merchant plants face a different set of risks than the regulated vertically integrated utilities that formerly owned the generating resources that supplied electricity to customers in their service area. This thesis evaluates the impact that industry restructuring will have on investments in capital-intensive electricity generation technologies and assesses the applicability of traditional economic valuation methods to investment decisions in a competitive wholesale electricity market. The evidence is presented through the use of a case study on the Likelihood of investment in new nuclear power plants in both organizational arrangements as predicted by two economic valuation methods. The results suggest that merchant developers will favor less capital-intensive technologies and that the traditional valuation method for power plant investment fails to capture the total effect on investment decisions of the new market arrangement. Economic studies that ignore the true nature of merchant plant investment will provide misleading conclusions regarding the relative competitiveness of generating technologies. / by Nathan E. Hottle. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 84-85). / Every climate change policy issue is inherently limited by two questions: what are exactly the consequences of climate change for our lives? How much will it cost to deal with them? Almost twelve years after the parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change met in Kyoto in 1992, acknowledging the fact that "change in the Earth's climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind" (United Nations, 1992), no global effort is really visible yet. The reason lies in the difficulty scientists and economists have to answer those two questions. This thesis will try to understand how uncertainty on the consequences of climate change drives the cost of policy decisions. It will especially try to find out what are the main sources of uncertainty in policy costs and where should we therefore put our research and policy efforts. In the first part of this thesis, we will perform a sensitivity analysis on the economic parameters relevant to the analysis, in order to identify the ones that most influence the cost of climate change policies. We will then develop and run a specific method to elicit experts' opinions on the uncertainty on each on these parameters. This step will allow us to conduct our uncertainty analysis under different policy assumptions and to understand better the implications of uncertainty on climate change policies. / by Paul F. Cossa. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 89-97). / This thesis reviews the developments in the research of business power and social structure, particularly focusing on the phenomena of "inner circle" and "structural hole" and their underlying theories. Through a close study on its technical and commercial developments as well as its ethical controversies, the American stem cell industry is found to be an interesting area to carry out the power structure research. Increasing political intervention and declining profitability make the American stem cell industry highly analogous to the entire American corporate community in 1970s and early 1980s when business inner circle first emerged. Meanwhile, the American stem cell industry also differs from the social context of a typical inner circle in a number of ways, which means special research strategy is required for the study on stem cell inner circle. Such analogue with slight deviation brings excitement to the power structure research in this highly entrepreneurial yet tightly regulated industry. 12 U.S. stem cell companies that well represent the American stem cell industry are selected to form a sampling for this power structure study. Stem cell inner circle is defined in this thesis as a group of people who are playing critical roles in the stem-cell related scientific, commercial, governmental activities. In search for this inner circle, definitions are given to the stem-cell related scientific, commercial and governmental activities to first identify people who are important individuals in the scientific, commercial and governmental circles respectively. By overlapping those three circles, a group of people in the intersection, termed the "stem cell inner circle", are identified. / (cont.) The formation of such an inner circle is then empiristically explained with the theory of "structural hole", especially the brokerage mechanism, based on the unique academic, commercial and political characteristics of the American stem cell industry. Finally, a number of possible topics for future researches that can be built on this thesis are suggested. / by Lisheng Wang. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 89-90). / In the first part of this thesis I give an overview of the political-economic and telecommunications sector developments in major western economies, as well as some of the advanced Eastern European countries. I use this framework to analyze the telecommunications sector development in countries of the former Yugoslavia: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro. Here I address the relevant legal and regulatory landscape development as well as the entrance of the most important business actors in the telecommunications markets of these countries. The history of the telecommunications sector development is also placed in the context of a broader set of political and economic shocks that affected this region of the world after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Throughout the thesis I build on insights learned during the research internship project that I undertook this summer: I visited capitals of all the former Yugoslavian countries and gathered data relevant to the telecommunications sector development by interviewing government and business sector officials there. This information is heavily used for the derivation of a set of policy recommendations and options that government officials should consider for advancing the development of the telecommunications technologies in the countries of the former Yugoslavia. Strategies for telecommunications sector development, their barriers, and solutions for surmounting these barriers are presented in the third part of this thesis. / by Adnan Sulejmanpasic. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 139-141). / In the traditional approach, spacecraft are tailored to each mission and are associated with high risks and costs and long cycles. Moreover, once launched, their flexibility remains limited. The concept of spacecraft fractionation could enable manufacturers and users to decrease these risks and costs and to increase space systems flexibility. Fractionation transforms the traditional monolithic spacecraft into a network of elements: a free-flying payload module is supported by free-flying modules that provide the payload with power, communications, etc. Thus modules could be maintained, exchanged, and reused once launched. Furthermore one could imagine developing a whole on-orbit infrastructure made of standardized modules that could support different payloads. This thesis investigates under what conditions fractionated spacecraft could be worthwhile alternatives to traditional ones. The first part assesses different fractionated architectures and compares them with traditional ones in terms of utility and cost for a given mission and given level of performance. A framework based on Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration was used to analyze the impact of fractionation, first at spacecraft level for a single mission, and second, at infrastructure level, when the spacecraft is part of the infrastructure. / (cont.) The study demonstrates that if space assets flexibility is valued enough, customers would choose fractionated spacecraft over traditional ones. The second part of the thesis examines the impact of spacecraft fractionation on the aerospace industry to understand why despite so many potential benefits, there are major barriers that prevent its implementation. Such an innovative concept could actually create a whole new paradigm in which today's protoflight approach would become a mass production approach, which would bring sweeping changes in today's space industry organization. This thesis explores policy options to increase the private sector's ability and motivation to implement fractionation and makes specific recommendations to enable the shift from today's paradigm to the fractionated spacecraft paradigm. / by Charlotte Mathieu. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 49-52). / The sixteen-bit well-known port number is often overlooked as a network identifier in Internet communications. Its purpose at the most fundamental level is only to demultiplex flows of traffic. Several unintended uses of the port number evolved from associating services with a list of well-known port numbers. This thesis documents those unintended consequences in an effort to describe the port number's influence on Internet players from ISPs to application developers and individual users. Proposals and examples of moving away from well-known port numbers to randomly assigned ones are then presented, with analysis of impacts on the political and economic systems on which Internet communication is dependent. / by Elizabeth Masiello. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 82-84). / This paper evaluates the advanced coal technology research, development and demonstration programs at the U.S. Department of Energy since the 1970s. The evaluation is conducted from a portfolio point of view and derives implications for future program design and implementation. The evaluation framework consists of four categories of criteria that assess the portfolio from strategy, diversity, partnership, and project merit points of view. The analysis of the successes and the failures of the past programs in technical, financial and managerial respects shows that these programs are reasonably successful in (1) remarkably advancing coal technologies to enable the U.S. to use coal as its major energy resource in the electricity sector when facing more stringent environmental regulation or possibly even in a greenhouse gas constrained world; (2)accumulating effective program management experience, especially involving industry in technology development from the beginning of the process to facilitate future deployment. Among these successes, a number of important features incorporated in the CCTDP are especially worth noting. These features are: (1) The program goal was well defined, which was accelerating commercialization of ACTs; / (cont.) (2) All projects have been fully funded up front, which saved worries about project funding prospect and enabled performers to concentrate on project implementation; (3) The well-defined program goal and funding commitment from federal government has encouraged industrial participation. As a result, industry has shared more than 50% of the programs cost with new money; (4) The DOE share of project cost growth was capped at 25%, which has incentivized industry to be more cautious about project risk; (5) Industry was authorized to design, build, operate and own facilities, which made full use of industry expertise and resources; and (6)In general, the program created a degree of competition for a range of technologies, which has helped hedge the program risk. Notwithstanding the achievements, some problems exist in these programs, of which the major ones are: (1) imbalanced RD&D structure caused by gaps in high efficiency combustion, application of modeling and simulation in ACT R&D, under-investment in basic research and applied R&D, insufficient university and national laboratory participation in R&D programs, and weak international collaboration, especially that with China; / (cont.) (2) deficiency in program management such as some political influence on project selection and operation, inefficient termination of unpromising projects, and design of inefficient programs such as the CCPI and over risky demonstration programs such as FutureGen. FutureGen, in a number of important respects such as goal defining, funding mechanism and technology option, presents a contrast to the CCTDP, the organization features of which have produced a number of successes. This elevates risk of failure of the program. Going forward, the DOE should (1) strive for more balanced program structure by enhancing R&D program and further diversifying technology options, with special attention on high efficiency combustion R&D and application of modeling and simulation; (2) draw in the successful experience of the CCTDP for efficient program design and management, especially in reconsidering program organization of FutureGen; (3) improve the processes of demonstration project selection and termination of unpromising projects in terms of minimizing political pressure on them; and (4) enhance university and national laboratory participation in R&D programs and Sino-U.S. collaboration on ACTs through joint RD&D on IGCC, USC, and pollution control devices. The collaboration may seek breakthrough with Chinese coal industry as a start. / by Ayaka Naga-Jones. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2006. / Page 120 blank. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 113-119). / Sales of services are becoming a major source of revenues across industries. The shift towards services has been exacerbated as human capital has gained in importance in the "knowledge economy." And yet, products businesses have historically attracted, and are still attracting, most of the attention of managers and scholars. Centering on the information technology services industry, this thesis analyzes the strategy, structure, and performance of services firms. We analyze the information technology services industry and propose a framework to determine the drivers of performance of information technology services firms. The framework is applied to a database of 831 information technology services firms from 1990 to 2004. Chapter II provides an insight into the dynamics of the information technology industry. Chapter III then focuses on the specificities, characteristics and structure of the information technology services firms. In Chapter IV, the business model of services firms is contrasted with that of products firms. Inter-relations between the two business models are proposed. Chapter V introduces a strategic management framework and applies it to the definition of drivers of performance of IT services firms, which are analyzed in Chapter VI, and contrasted with those of software firms. / by François J. de Laigue. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2007. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 143-145). / During the last two decades, traffic congestion in the U.S. has increased from 30% to 67% of peak period travel. Further, current research shows that measures taken within transportation systems, such as adding capacity, improving operations and managing demand, are not enough to keep congestion from growing worse. With the worsening traffic, the vehicle's fuel consumption and pollutant emissions will inevitably increase. As such, this thesis aims to quantitatively evaluate the energy and environmental impacts of worsening traffic on individual vehicles and the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet, as well as to design feasible measures beyond transportation systems to offset theses impacts. The fuel consumption and emissions of different vehicle types under different driving situations provide the basis for analyzing the energy and environmental impacts of worsening traffic. This thesis defines the concept of "driving segments" to represent all possible driving situations which consist of vehicle speed, operation patterns and road types. For each vehicle type, its fuel consumption and emissions in different "driving segments" can be developed into a matrix by ADVISOR 2004, the vehicle simulation tool. Combining the "driving segments" vehicle performance matrices with the model for traffic congestion, the energy and environmental impacts of worsening traffic on individual vehicles can be examined. / (cont.) Based on these impacts, this thesis compares the performance of different vehicle types for both today's and tomorrow's traffic situations. Meanwhile, the on-road fuel economy of each vehicle type has also been calculated to update EPA's fuel economy rating by taking worsening traffic into consideration. Combining the "driving segments" vehicle performance matrices with a set of models for fleet population, vehicle technology, driving behavior and traffic congestion, the energy and environmental impacts of worsening traffic on the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet can also be examined. Through sensitivity analysis, this thesis investigates the effects of altering vehicle choice, developing vehicle technology and changing driving behavior on offsetting the fuel consumption and emissions of the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet caused by worsening traffic through 2030. It is concluded that promoting the market share of advanced vehicle technologies (Hybrids mainly) is the most effective and most feasible method. / by Wen Feng. / S.M.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 137-143). / Managing impending environmental and energy challenges in the transport sector requires a dramatic reduction in both the petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of in-use vehicles. This study quantifies the potential of electric and hybrid-electric powertrains, such as gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), to offer such reductions. The evolution of key enabling technologies was evaluated over a 30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption; the technology evaluation was also used to estimate costs. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. While electric powertrains can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum, their GHG and energy reduction potential are constrained by continued reliance on fossil-fuels for producing electricity and hydrogen. In addition, constraints on growth of new vehicle technologies and slow rates of fleet turnover imply that these technologies take decades to effect meaningful change. / (cont.) As such, they do not offer a silver bullet: new technologies must be deployed in combination with other aggressive measures such as improved conventional technology, development of low-carbon fuels and fuel production pathways, and demand-side reductions. The results do not suggest a clear winner amongst the technologies evaluated, although the hybrid vehicle is most likely to offer a dominant path through the first half of the century, based on its position as an established technology, a projection that shows continued improvement and narrowing cost relative to conventional technologies, and similar GHG reduction benefits to other technologies as long as they rely on traditional fuel pathways. The plug-in hybrid, while more costly than hybrid vehicles, offers greater opportunity to reduce GHG emissions and petroleum use, and faces lower technical risk and fewer infrastructure hurdles than fuel-cell or battery-electric vehicles. Fuel-cell vehicle technology has shown significant improvement in the last several years, but questions remain as to its technical feasibility and the relative benefit of hydrogen as a transportation fuel. / by Matthew A. Kromer. / S.M.