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A Probabilistic Inventory Analysis of Biomass for the State of Texas for Cellulosic EthanolGleinser, Matthew A. 16 January 2010 (has links)
Agricultural and forestry wastes for the use of creating cellulosic ethanol were
inventoried for each county in Texas. A simple forecast was created for each of the
agricultural wastes and then a multivariate empirical distribution was used to simulate
the range of biomass available by county and district. The probability that a district
could support a 25, 50, 75, or 100 million gallon cellulosic ethanol plant is estimated
from the Monte Carlo simulation results.
Biomass in Texas is concentrated in the Northern and Eastern areas of the state.
The areas of South and West Texas have little to no biomass available to use for
cellulosic ethanol. The North East, South East, and Upper Coast districts include forestry
waste that increase the amount of available biomass. With 100 percent certainty the
North East and South East districts can support four 100 million gallon cellulosic ethanol
plants each. The research found that there is more than enough biomass to support
numerous cellulosic ethanol plants in Texas, and decision makers can use the results of
this study to identify regions of low and high risk for available biomass from agricultural
and forestry waste.
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