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Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association Payout for Commercial Property Loss Due to Ike Based on Weather, Geographical, and Building VariablesZhu, Kehui 03 October 2013 (has links)
Hurricanes cause enormous loss to life and property worldwide. Predicting the damage caused by hurricane and figuring out what factors are responsible for the damage are important. This study utilizes multiple linear regression models to predict a hurricane – induced Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) payout or TWIA payout ratio using independent variables that could affect the hurricane intensity, including distance from the coastline, distance from the hurricane track, distance from the landfall center of Hurricane Ike, proportion in floodplain zone (100 year, 500 year, 100-500 year), building area, proportion in island, number of buildings per parcel, and building age.
The methodology of this study includes Pearson’s correlation and multiple linear regressions. First, Pearson’s correlation is used to examine whether there are any significant correlations between the dependent and independent variables. For TWIA payout, three independent variables, distance from the coastline, distance from the landfall center, and building area, are correlated to the TWIA payout at the 0.01 level. Distance from the coastline and distance from the landfall center have negative relations with the TWIA payout. The variable, building area, has a positive relation with the TWIA payout. Moreover, the improvement value is correlated to the TWIA payout at the 0.05 level. For TWIA payout ratio, distance from the coastline is correlated to the TWIA payout ratio at the level of 0.01 and distance from the landfall center is correlated to the TWIA payout ratio at the 0.05 level. These two variables have negative relations to the TWIA payout ratio.
Multiple linear regressions are applied to predict the TWIA payout and payout ratio. A regression model with an Adjusted R Square of 0.264 is presented to predict the TWIA payout. This model could explain 26.4 percent of the variability in TWIA payout using the variables, distance from coastline and building area. A regression model with an Adjusted R Square of 0.121 is presented to predict the TWIA payout ratio.
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Multiple Linear Regression Models: Predicting the Texas Windstrom Insurance Association Claim Payout and Ratio Versus the Appraised Value of Commercial Buildings from Hurricae IkeKim, Ji Myong 16 December 2013 (has links)
Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System (GIS) to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage and ratio. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.
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