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Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidenceMazouz, Khelifa, Joseph, N.L., Joulmer, J. January 2009 (has links)
No / We examine the short-term price reaction of 424 UK stocks to large one-day price changes. Using the GJR-GARCH(1,1), we find no statistical difference amongst the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the Single Index, the Fama–French and the Carhart–Fama–French models. Shocks ⩾5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of 1% for all the models. Whilst shocks ⩽−5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of −0.43% for the Single Index, the CARs are around −0.34% for the other two models. Positive shocks of all sizes and negative shocks ⩽−5% are followed by return continuations, whilst the market is efficient following larger negative shocks. The price reaction to shocks is unaffected when we estimate the CARs using the conditional covariances of the pricing variables.
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The Price Volatility of Bitcoin : A search for the drivers affecting the price volatility of this digital currencyStråle Johansson, Nathalie, Tjernström, Malin January 2014 (has links)
Created in 2009, the digital currency of bitcoin is a relatively new phenomenon. During this short period of time, it has however displayed a strong development of both price and trade volume. This has led to increased media attention, but also regulators and researchers have developed an interest. At this moment, the amount of available research is however limited. With a focus on the price volatility of bitcoin and an aim of finding drivers of this volatility, this study is taking a unique position. The research has its basis in the philosophical position of positivism and objectivism. This has shaped the research question as well as the construction of the study. The result is a describing and explaining research with a deductive research approach, a quantitative research method and an archival research strategy. This has in turn stimulated an extensive literature review and information search. Areas of discussion are microstructure theory, the efficient market hypothesis, behavioural finance and informational structures. Due to the limited amount of previous bitcoin research within the area of price volatility, the study has drawn extensively on research performed on more classical assets such as stocks. Nevertheless, when available, bitcoin research has been used as a foundation/reference and an inspiration. Reviews of academic literature and economic theories, as well as public news helped to identify the variables for the empirical study. These variables are; information demand, trade volume, world market index, trend and six specified events, occurring during the chosen sample period and included in the study as dummy variables. The variables are all analysed and included in a GARCH (1,1) model, modified following a similar research by Vlastakis & Markellos (2012) on stocks. This GARCH (1,1) model is then fitted to the bitcoin volatility registered for the sample period and is able thereby able to generate data of if and how the variables affect the bitcoin volatility. The test result suggests that five of the ten variables are significant on a 5 %-level. More specifically it suggests that information demand is a significant variable with a positive influence on the bitcoin volatility, something that corresponds to the literature on information demand and price volatility. This also relates to the events found significant, as they generated bitcoin related information. The significant events of the Cypriot crisis and the failure of the bitcoin exchange MtGox are thus specific examples of how information affects price volatility. Another significant variable is trade volume, which also displays a positive influence on the volatility. The last significant variable turned out to be a constructed positive trend, suggesting that increasing acceptance of bitcoin decreases its volatility.
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Så glimrande var aldrig guldet : Kvantitativ undersökning om guldets värde bevaras eller ökar vid börsnedgång i Sverige under covid-19Jarlbäck, Julia, Fick, Patrik January 2020 (has links)
When the financial markets start to shake investors start looking for a safe asset for protection. When people talk about a safe asset, they for the most part refer to gold. But is that really the case? There are few studies about gold as a safe haven however they do not concern the Swedish financial market. That is the purpose of this research; to examine if gold could act as a safe haven in the financial market in Sweden. This is of interest since there is an economic crisis caused by covid19 at this particular moment. The result could help us understand how investors could use gold in their portfolio of investments. To do this we have gathered daily returns from OMXS30, gold, and a 10-year Swedish government bond. With a statistical model we answered the question. When the financial markets start to shake investors start looking for a safe asset for protection. When people talk about a safe asset, they for the most part refer to gold. But is that really the case? There are few studies about gold as a safe haven however they do not concern the Swedish financial market. That is the purpose of this research; to examine if gold could act as a safe haven in the financial market in Sweden. This is of interest since there is an economic crisis caused by covid19 at this particular moment. The result could help us understand how investors could use gold in their portfolio of investments. To do this we have gathered daily returns from OMXS30, gold, and a 10-year Swedish government bond. With a statistical model we answered the question.
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A heteroscedastic volatility model with Fama and French risk factors for portfolio returns in Japan / En heteroskedastisk volatilitetsmodell med Fama och Frenchriskfaktorer för portföljavkastning i JapanWallin, Edvin, Chapman, Timothy January 2021 (has links)
This thesis has used the Fama and French five-factor model (FF5M) and proposed an alternative model. The proposed model is named the Fama and French five-factor heteroscedastic student's model (FF5HSM). The model utilises an ARMA model for the returns with the FF5M factors incorporated and a GARCH(1,1) model for the volatility. The FF5HSM uses returns data from the FF5M's portfolio construction for the Japanese stock market and the five risk factors. The portfolio's capture different levels of market capitalisation, and the factors capture market risk. The ARMA modelling is used to address the autocorrelation present in the data. To deal with the heteroscedasticity in daily returns of stocks, a GARCH(1,1) model has been used. The order of the GARCH-model has been concluded to be reasonable in academic literature for this type of data. Another finding in earlier research is that asset returns do not follow the assumption of normality that a regular regression model assumes. Therefore, the skewed student's t-distribution has been assumed for the error terms. The result of the data indicates that the FF5HSM has a better in-sample fit than the FF5M. The FF5HSM addresses heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the data and minimises them depending on the portfolio. Regardingforecasting, both the FF5HSM and the FF5M are accurate models depending on what portfolio the model is applied on.
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