The ability of liberalised electricity markets to trigger investment in the generation capacity required to maintain an acceptable level of security of supply risk has been - and will continue to be - a topic of much debate. Like many capital intensive industries, generation investment suffers from long lead and construction times, lumpiness of capacity change and high uncertainty. As a result, the ‘boom-and-bust’ investment cycle phenomenon, characterised by overcapacity and low prices, followed by power shortages and high prices, is a prominent feature in the debate. Modelling the dynamics of generation investment in market environments can provide insights into the complexities involved and address the challenges of market design. Further, many governments who preside over liberalised energy markets are developing policies aimed at promoting investment in renewable generation. Of particular interest is the mix and amount of generation investment over time in response to policies promoting high penetrations of variable output renewable power such as wind. Consequently, improved methods to calculate expected output, costs and revenue of thermal generation subject to varying load and random independent thermal outages in a power system with a high wind penetration are needed. In this interdisciplinary project engineering tools are applied to an economic problem together with knowledge from numerous other disciplines. A dynamic simulation model of the aggregated Great Britain (GB) generation investment market has been developed. Investment is viewed as a negative feedback control mechanism with current and future energy prices acting as the feedback signal. Other disciplines called upon include the use of stochastic processes to address uncertainties such as future fuel prices, and economic theory to gain insights into investor behaviour. An ‘energy-only’ market setting is used where generation companies use a classical NPV approach together with the Value at Risk criterion for investment decisions. Market price mark-ups due to market power are also accounted for. The model’s ability to simulate the market trends witnessed in GB since early 2001 is scrutinised with encouraging findings reported. A reasonably good agreement of the model with reality, gives a degree of confidence in the realism of future projections. An advancement to the dynamic model to account for expected high wind penetrations is also included. Building on the initial model iteration, the short-term energy market is simulated using probabilistic production costing based on theMix of Normals distribution technique with a residual load calculation (load net of wind output). Wind speed measurement data is combined with the outputs of atmospheric models to assess the availability of the GB wind resource and its relationship with aggregate load. Simulation results for 2010-40 suggest that the GB system may experience increased generation adequacy risk during the mid to late the 2020s. In addition, many new investments are unable to recover their fixed costs. This triggered an investigation into the design of a capacity mechanism within the context of the modelling environment. In light of the ongoing GB market electricity market reform debate, two mechanisms are tested; a strategic reserve tender and a marketwide capacity market. The goal of these mechanisms is to mitigate generation adequacy risk concerns by achieving a target winter peak de-rated capacity margin.

A geração termelétrica a partir da biomassa proveniente do setor sucroenergético brasileiro, além de ser vista como opção para investimentos no setor de energias renováveis, pode contribuir com o suprimento de energia mantendo aspectos inerentes às vantagens sociais, estratégicas e ambientais que o favorecimento de um setor genuinamente desenvolvido no Brasil pode atribuir à matriz de energia elétrica. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é analisar o potencial adicional de energia elétrica que pode ser gerado a partir de recursos do setor sucroenergético. Os objetivos específicos estão em determinar e dimensionar os possíveis combustíveis para geração termelétrica no setor sucroenergético, em determinar quais rotas tecnológicas possibilitam o aumento da geração de energia e em quantificar a geração específica bruta de energia para cada tecnologia selecionada. O método consiste na realização de revisão bibliográfica para alocar o tema de estudo e pesquisa, com posterior elaboração de pesquisas documentais com o intuito de reunir dados e estimativas necessárias ao desenvolvimento do cálculo, coletando dados em publicações de institutos, entidades, empresas e consultores (dados de estimativas de produção de cana-de-açúcar para o período projetado e a definição dos recursos combustíveis e dos recursos tecnológicos). A seguir, para cada tecnologia de geração de energia elétrica, são apresentados arranjos com seus respectivos balanços de energia, índices de geração específica bruta de energia para as condições de cogeração e de geração de energia elétrica pura, vantagens, desvantagens e a inserção destas tecnologias ao longo do período estimado. Os resultados apontam que a expansão da produção de cana-de-açúcar, baseada na expansão agrícola e no aumento da produtividade, bem como o incremento tecnológico dos sistemas termelétricos de potência disponíveis comercialmente para o setor sucroenergético podem permitir a projeção de cenários com 26 GW de capacidade instalada com a utilização do bagaço e 33 GW com a inserção de palha. A importância deste trabalho está relacionada com a apresentação do estado da arte da tecnologia disponível para a geração termelétrica a partir do setor sucroenergético, pelo fato de apresentar os índices de geração específica para diferentes cenários de disponibilidade combustível e de tecnologias aplicáveis e por permitir análises entre os grupos tecnológicos e as biomassas disponíveis para a geração. / The biomass power generation in the Brazilian sugar & ethanol industry, besides being seen as an option for investments in the renewable energy sector, may contribute to the energy supply while maintaining aspects related to social, strategic and environmental advantages that the support of a sector genuinely developed in Brazil can attribute to the electricity matrix. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the surplus electricity that can be generated from resources of the sugar & ethanol industry. The specific aims are to determine and measure the potential fuels for power generation in the sugar & ethanol industry, to determine which technological routes enable an increase in the power generation and to quantify the specific gross power generation for each selected technology. The method consists of conducting a literature review in order to place the subject of study, with further development of documentary research in order to collect data necessary for developing the calculation, collecting data in publications from institutes, organizations, companies and consultants (sugarcane production data estimates for the foreseen period of study and the definition of fuel and technology resources for power generation). Afterwards, for each power generation technology, arrangements are presented with their respective energy balances, the specific gross power generation for the cases of process cogeneration and power generation stand-alone, the advantages, disadvantages and the inclusion of these technologies over the projected period. The results show that the expansion of production of sugarcane, based on agricultural expansion and increased productivity as well as the technological improvement of commercially available power generation systems for the sugarcane industry may allow scenarios with 26 GW of installed capacity using the sugarcane bagasse and 33 GW with the insertion of the sugarcane straw. The significance of this work is related to the presentation of the state of the art technology available for the thermoelectric generation from sugarcane industry. It is also connected to the fact of presenting an index of specific power generation for different scenarios of fuel availability and applicable technologies as well as enabling analysis of technological groups and available biomass for power generation.

A geração termelétrica a partir da biomassa proveniente do setor sucroenergético brasileiro, além de ser vista como opção para investimentos no setor de energias renováveis, pode contribuir com o suprimento de energia mantendo aspectos inerentes às vantagens sociais, estratégicas e ambientais que o favorecimento de um setor genuinamente desenvolvido no Brasil pode atribuir à matriz de energia elétrica. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é analisar o potencial adicional de energia elétrica que pode ser gerado a partir de recursos do setor sucroenergético. Os objetivos específicos estão em determinar e dimensionar os possíveis combustíveis para geração termelétrica no setor sucroenergético, em determinar quais rotas tecnológicas possibilitam o aumento da geração de energia e em quantificar a geração específica bruta de energia para cada tecnologia selecionada. O método consiste na realização de revisão bibliográfica para alocar o tema de estudo e pesquisa, com posterior elaboração de pesquisas documentais com o intuito de reunir dados e estimativas necessárias ao desenvolvimento do cálculo, coletando dados em publicações de institutos, entidades, empresas e consultores (dados de estimativas de produção de cana-de-açúcar para o período projetado e a definição dos recursos combustíveis e dos recursos tecnológicos). A seguir, para cada tecnologia de geração de energia elétrica, são apresentados arranjos com seus respectivos balanços de energia, índices de geração específica bruta de energia para as condições de cogeração e de geração de energia elétrica pura, vantagens, desvantagens e a inserção destas tecnologias ao longo do período estimado. Os resultados apontam que a expansão da produção de cana-de-açúcar, baseada na expansão agrícola e no aumento da produtividade, bem como o incremento tecnológico dos sistemas termelétricos de potência disponíveis comercialmente para o setor sucroenergético podem permitir a projeção de cenários com 26 GW de capacidade instalada com a utilização do bagaço e 33 GW com a inserção de palha. A importância deste trabalho está relacionada com a apresentação do estado da arte da tecnologia disponível para a geração termelétrica a partir do setor sucroenergético, pelo fato de apresentar os índices de geração específica para diferentes cenários de disponibilidade combustível e de tecnologias aplicáveis e por permitir análises entre os grupos tecnológicos e as biomassas disponíveis para a geração. / The biomass power generation in the Brazilian sugar & ethanol industry, besides being seen as an option for investments in the renewable energy sector, may contribute to the energy supply while maintaining aspects related to social, strategic and environmental advantages that the support of a sector genuinely developed in Brazil can attribute to the electricity matrix. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the surplus electricity that can be generated from resources of the sugar & ethanol industry. The specific aims are to determine and measure the potential fuels for power generation in the sugar & ethanol industry, to determine which technological routes enable an increase in the power generation and to quantify the specific gross power generation for each selected technology. The method consists of conducting a literature review in order to place the subject of study, with further development of documentary research in order to collect data necessary for developing the calculation, collecting data in publications from institutes, organizations, companies and consultants (sugarcane production data estimates for the foreseen period of study and the definition of fuel and technology resources for power generation). Afterwards, for each power generation technology, arrangements are presented with their respective energy balances, the specific gross power generation for the cases of process cogeneration and power generation stand-alone, the advantages, disadvantages and the inclusion of these technologies over the projected period. The results show that the expansion of production of sugarcane, based on agricultural expansion and increased productivity as well as the technological improvement of commercially available power generation systems for the sugarcane industry may allow scenarios with 26 GW of installed capacity using the sugarcane bagasse and 33 GW with the insertion of the sugarcane straw. The significance of this work is related to the presentation of the state of the art technology available for the thermoelectric generation from sugarcane industry. It is also connected to the fact of presenting an index of specific power generation for different scenarios of fuel availability and applicable technologies as well as enabling analysis of technological groups and available biomass for power generation.