Flood estimation can be classified into two categories, i.e. flood prediction and flood forecasting. Flood prediction is used for the estimation of design floods, which are floods associated with a degree of risk of being equalled or exceeded. Predictions are needed for the design and construction of infrastructure that are at risk to flowing water. Flood forecasting is used for the estimation of flood flows from an impending and/or occurring rainfall event (i.e. the estimation of the magnitude of future flood flows with reference to a specific time in the future). These are needed by catchment and disaster managers for the mitigation of flood damage. The estimation of flood magnitudes for flood forecasting requires the specific knowledge of prevailing surface conditions which are associated with the processes of rainfall conversion into flood runoff. In order to best achieve this, a distributed model (in order to exploit remotely sensed data and capture the spatial scale of the phenomenon) is used to continuously update the surface conditions that are important in this conversion process. This dissertation focuses on both flood estimation categories. In the first part of the dissertation, attention is given to the improvement of two simple event-based design flood prediction methods currently in use by design practitioners, namely the regional maximum flood (RMF) and the rational formula (RF) by comparison with statistically modelled historical flood data. The second part of the dissertation lays the theoretical and practical foundation for the implementation of a fully distributed physically-based rainfall-runoff model for real-time flood forecasting in South Africa. The TOPKAPI model was chosen for this purpose. This aspect of the research involved assimilating the literature on the model, testing the model and gathering and preparing of the input data required by the model for its eventual application in the Liebenbergsvlei catchment. The practical application of the model is left for a follow-up study. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2007. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2007

Waste water discharge into a temporary open/closed estuary (TOCE) system introduces two main concerns namely (1) the effects on the water balance of the system (quantity) and (2) the effects on the nutrient dynamics (water quality). Changes to mouth breaching patterns can severely impact the hydrological and ecological functioning of TOCEs, while excessive nutrient loading can lead to eutrophic conditions and algal blooms. Algal blooms occur when residence times during closed mouth conditions exceed the time scale for growth of the microalgal community. The aim of this study was to formulate a model in order to predict eutrophication events using the Mhlanga Estuary as a case study. The Mhlanga Estuary is situated approximately 19 km northeast of Durban and has a small catchment «100km2 ). The Phoenix and Mhlanga waste water treatment works (WWTW) collectively discharge approximately 20MI of treated effluent into the Mhlanga River per day. A simple daily-time-step water balance model was selected to model the hydrodynamics of the system. The model included various inputs and outputs of the system, residence time, storage, breaching water levels and time for mouth closure to occur. The result of the water balance model was a daily prediction of the mouth state and volume, and an indication of the breaching frequency. Observed mouth state data and measured water levels were used to test the model. In order to predict eutrophication events and trends at the Mhlanga Estuary, it was required that the conditions at which this would occur be investigated. This included the collection of samples (physico-chemical and chlorophyll-a) on a weekly basis for three months, a period that included three breaching events. Due to the complexity required in developing a nutrient dynamics model, a simpler approach was selected. The grey water index (GWI) was formulated in order to account for nutrient loadings into the estuary. WWTW discharge data were provided by eThekwini Municipality Water and Sanitation (EMWS). Initial results showed that under ideal conditions, an algal bloom would occur approximately fourteen days following re-closure of the Mhlanga mouth. The eutrophication index (E j ) was then formulated to account for both residence time and nutrient concentrations. The Ej at which eutrophic conditions can be expected was found to be about 50 %. It is important to note that this value for Ej is expected to be site specific and only accounts for the Mhlanga Estuary, but the concept can be generalized to other similar estuaries. Water levels simulated using the water balance model and observed mouth state data produced similar levels to those measured by DWAF. Following simulations of different flow scenarios (75% and 150% increase in WWTW discharges), it was found that an increase in capping flows resulted in more frequent breaching events and longer open mouth conditions. The risk of eutrophic conditions also increased with an increase in WWTW capping flows. Algal blooms are predicted to continue despite more frequent breaching events induced by an increase in capping flows. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2007.

Damage to reinforced concrete bridges due to carbonation and chloride induced corrosion is widespread in South Africa and prone in environments where carbon dioxide is at high levels as well as in marine environments where chlorides are present. Performance specifications are therefore essential in order that structural concrete can be designed and constructed to the required standards ensuring that the long term durability can be maintained. This dissertation includes a review of SANRAL‘s current durability specifications. The specifications are critiqued in terms of the testing methodology followed as well as strength and environmental exposure considerations, and recommendations are made for improving the specifications. The literature review, outlines the background to both carbonation and chloride induced corrosion to reinforced concrete bridges , considering the fundamental causes of deterioration of concrete caused by carbonation and chloride ingress and repair costs during their service life. The South African Durability Index tests are presented and reviewed, in particular the laboratory testing apparatus and procedures. In addition, the index tests are compared with durability test methods currently being used internationally. The background and previous durability specifications used in South Africa on road bridges as well as details of research into specifications to ensure durable concrete with specific emphasis on curing of concrete is summarised. The indications are that performance based specifications for concrete on bridge structures internationally follow similar criteria to the specifications currently being adopted by SANRAL. Both performance and prescriptive specifications used usually depend on the risk that a constructor needs to carry. Importantly both cement extenders to ensure long term durability and penalties are applied in performance based durability. SANRAL‘s current durability specifications are reviewed and both the negatives and positives are presented for the various sections. Amendments to the Committee of Land Transport Officials (COLTO) standard specifications are recommended address shortcomings. The latest project specifications used on SANRAL contracts incorporating target requirements for cover and oxygen permeability are evaluated. These impose penalties if targets are not achieved, while limits are placed on chloride conductivity values for various blended binders. Data is also included for the sorptivity index values on the five projects which may analysed and target values can be set and implemented in future. Descriptions of the five projects with regard to durability specifications, their environmental exposure condition and concrete mix designs are presented. Five projects in KwaZulu-Natal, are used as case studies for durability tests and specifications. The only distinct difference in the specifications is that the three projects commencing in 2006 and early in 2007 had the target values for water sorptivity whereas for the project, sorptivity values are only reported on. Durability index testing results at each of the sites from the trial panels, additional test cubes (cast for coring and testing of durability indexes) as well as coring and testing from the bridge structures are presented. A major change is coring and testing of samples from trial panels and additional test cubes on the site instead of coring of the structure. The information is drawn together and relationships are determined between the various durability indexes as well as to strength. It is evident that the quality of concrete as constructed in the structure which is reflected by the durability index results is different to that produced in the test cubes and trial panels. It is deduced that while more care is being taken to produce quality concrete on the sites, certain aspects of the specifications need revision in order to remove confusion as well as to ensure that the concrete in the structure meets the target requirements. Finally it is noted that climate change is having an impact on design of bridge infrastructure, and while the surveys undertaken at Ethekwini and Msunduzi Municipalities shows that carbon dioxide levels being recorded are still average levels, worldwide there has been an increase in CO2 levels and further modifications to specifications in future may be required. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2011.

Garden refuse has been seen to constitute a significant proportion of the total waste stream received at landfills in the eThekwini Municipal Area (EMA). With the growing demand for conserving “precious landfill airspace” as a result of limited availability of land for new landfill development, there is a shift in the mindsets of landfill operators to adopt alternative methods of treatment other than the traditional way of landfilling. As a result composting of green waste stream was seen as the most appropriate treatment solution as not only would there be a direct landfill airspace saving but the added environmental, economical and social sustainable benefits to the city. The first South African Waste Summit saw the signing of the Polokwane Declaration i.e. “Reduce waste generation and disposal by 50% and 25% respectively by 2012 and develop a plan for ZERO WASTE by 2022”. Hence, the push for composting to try and achieve waste reduction to landfills. The Dome Aeration Technology (DAT) is an advanced treatment option for aerobic biological degradation of garden refuse (Mollekopf et al, 2002, Trois and Polster, 2006). The originality of the DAT system is the use of passive aeration brought about by thermal driven advection through open windrows which is induced by thermal differences between the composting material and the ambient atmosphere (Polster, 2003). Previous work on organic waste composting using the DAT on a small scale showed that good quality compost was attainable within 6 weeks of composting (Moodley 2005). This study offers comparative performances between DAT system and Traditional Turned Windrows (TTW) in composting garden refuse and recommending the most appropriate system for integration into existing landfill operations. Full scale windrows were constructed for each system at the Bisasar Road Landfill Site in Durban, Kwa-Zulu Natal to evaluate the influence of climate, quality of compost, operational requirements and feasibility. The process monitoring for the DAT windrow showed that temperatures reached thermophilic ranges within a week of composting which confirms that of the German studies. Waste characterisation of both input and output materials are discussed for both systems with recommendations on the most practical and appropriate system applicable to that of an operational landfill are drawn. The study further concludes with potential uses of the composted garden refuse within landfill sites and its contribution to “closed loop” landfilling yet within an integrated waste management plan. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2010.

Industry both consumes and creates an abundance of dangerous goods, which must be transported from producers to end-users. This creates opportunities for incidents, including traffic accidents, which could release poisonous, corrosive, flammable or carcinogenic substances into the environment. Releases of dangerous goods at a location may pose a significant threat to the health of the neighbouring population. The Durban South Basin, with its hazardous mix of heavy industrial, employment and residential areas, was chosen as the case study for research into the risks associated with the transportation of dangerous goods. High levels of traffic flow occur in this region and significant volumes of dangerous goods are transported on the roads within the basin. The objectives of this investigation were to: develop a methodology that may be applied to estimate the likelihood and consequences of releases of dangerous goods due to road accidents; and to evaluate the usefulness of this methodology by applying it to estimate the risks posed to the people residing in, working in and travelling through the Durban South Basin. The literature pertaining to risk assessment of dangerous goods transport was examined. A review was undertaken of the current state of the art and the theory and methodology used by previous researchers. As intersections provide greater opportunities for vehicles to be involved in accidents, traffic surveys were conducted at selected intersections within the Durban South Basin in order to obtain an indication of the flow of dangerous goods vehicles and the types of dangerous goods being transported through these locations. Two approaches were utilised to estimate the likelihood of dangerous goods accidents and releases at intersections: a deterministic model and an innovative method based on Monte Carlo simulation. Dispersion modelling and geographic information systems were integrated to estimate the impacts of accidental releases of dangerous goods at intersections. Queuing analysis was combined with dispersion modelling to estimate the risks posed to road users from dangerous goods releases. The investigation verified that dangerous goods transportation risk assessment could be performed even when there are substantial data uncertainties. Furthermore, in comparison to the deterministic approach typically used in transportation studies, Monte Carlo simulation facilitates a deeper understanding of the nature and distribution of dangerous goods accident risk. The results suggest that although dangerous goods accidents and releases are infrequent, the potential exists for very serious incidents involving large numbers of injuries. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.

The research project described in this dissertation studies the modelling techniques employed for the Mlazi River in the context of flood analysis and flood forecasting in order to model flood inundation. These techniques are applicable to an environment where there is uncertainty due to a lack of historical input data for calibration and validation purposes. This uncertainty is best explained by understanding the process and data required to model flood inundation. In order to model flood inundation in real time, forecasted flood flows would be required as input to a hydraulic river model used for simulating flood inundation levels. During this process, forecasted flood flows would be obtained from a flood-forecasting model that would need to be calibrated and validated. The calibration process would require historical rainfall data correlating with streamflow data and subsequently, the validation process would require real time streamflow data. In the context of the Mlazi Catchment, there are only two stream gauges located in the upper subcatchments. Although these stream gauges have recorded data for 20 years, the streamflow data does not correlate with disaggregated daily rainfall data, of which there are records for at least 40 years. Therefore it would be difficult to develop the forecasting model based on the rainfall and streamflow data available. In this instance, a more realistic approach to modelling flood inundation involved the integration of GIS technology, a physically based hydrological model for flood analysis, a conceptual forecasting model for real time forecasting and a hydraulic model for computation of inundation levels. The integration of modelling techniques are better explained by categorising the process into three phases: Phase 1 Desktop catchment modelling: A continuous, physically based simulation model (HEC-HMS Model) was set up using GIS technology. The model applied the SCS-UH method for the estimation of peak discharges. Synthetic hyetographs for various recurrence intervals were used as input to the model. A sensitivity analysis was implemented and subsequently the HEC-HMS model was calibrated against output SCS-UH method and peak discharges simulated. The synthetic hyetographs together with results from the HEC-HMS model were used for validation of the Mlazi Meta Model (MMM) used for real time flood forecasting. Phase 2 Implementation of the Inundation Model: The hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) was created using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A field survey was conducted for the purpose of capturing the roughness coefficients and hydraulic structures, which were incorporated into the model and also for the confirmation of the terrain cross sections from the DEM. Flow data for the computation of levels of inundation were obtained from the HEC-HMS model. The levels of inundation for the natural channel of Mlazi River were simulated using the one dimensional steady state analysis, whereas for the canal overbank areas, simulation was conducted for unsteady state conditions. Phase 3 Creation of the Mlazi Meta Model (MMM): The MMM used for real time flood forecasting is a linear catchment model which consists of a semi-distributed three reservoir cell model (Pegram and Sinclair, 2002). The MMM parameters were initially adjusted using the HEC-HMS model so that it became representative of the Mlazi catchment. This approach sounds unreasonable because a model is being validated by another model but it gave the best initial estimate of the parameters rather than using trial and error. The MMM will be further updated using record radar data and streamflow data once all structures have been put in place. The confidence in the applicability of the HEC-HMS model is based on the intensive efforts applied in setting it up. Furthermore, the output results from the calibrated HEC-HMS model were compared with other reliable methods of computing design peak discharges and also validated with frequency analysis conducted on one of the subcatchments. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Durban,2003.

Durban is the busiest container port in Africa and there are plans for significant expansion during the next few years. This expansion includes the widening of the port entrance channel to accommodate larger "post-panamax" vessels. Complex crosscurrents near the port entrance, coupled with severe wind and wave conditions, may lead to the intermittent closure of the port which in turn could lead to significant economic implications. Information on the nature of the crosscurrents and how they affect the ships could assist harbour pilots in developing their skills and reduce the risks associated with steering ships into the port. The research involved a case study to develop an innovative new method for directly measuring the effect of wind, waves and crosscurrents on ships entering the port. The technology is based on the application of digital image processing to track the position of ships as they manoeuvre in the port approach channel. The key innovation of this research is the extraction of the heading direction of the ship from the image data. The angle between this heading direction and the true velocity vector (the "crab angle") is then a direct measure of the cross-track drift velocity (CTDV) due to the combined effects of wind, waves and currents. The crosscurrents are usually the main contributing factor to the cross-track drift. The aim of this research was to develop a fully automated image processing system for real-time ship monitoring, and to determine cross-track drift within a wide range of weather conditions and ship parameters. The methodology presented in this research allows the spatial structure of the CTDV along the harbour approach channel to be studied. The relationship of the CTDV to local surface winds was analysed. For deep draught vessels, measured CTDVs were found to be poorly correlated to surface winds. The spatial structure of the measured CTDVs shows distinct regions along the approach channel where vessels experience significantly larger drift velocities. In summary, with the software tools developed by this research, digital images can be captured automatically and analysed to produce ship tracks and crab angles. From this information an extensive database for ship manoeuvring in the approach channel can be developed and the safety and efficiency of port operations improved. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2002.

Stably stratified flows are common in the environment such as in the atmospheric· boundary layer, the oceans, lakes and estuaries. Understanding mixing and dispersion in these flows is of fundamental importance in applications such as the prediction of pollution dispersion and for weather and climate prediction/models. Mixing efficiency in stratified flows is a measure of the proportion of the turbulent kinetic energy that goes into increasing the potential energy of the fluid by irreversible mixing. This can be important for parameterizing the effects of mixing in stratified flows. In this research, fully resolved direct numerical simulations (DNS) of the Navier-Stokes equations are used to study transient turbulent mixing events. The breaking of internal waves in the atmosphere could be a source of such episodic events in the environment. The simulations have been used to investigate the mixing efficiency (integrated over the duration of the event) as a function of the initial turbulence Richardson number Ri = N2L2/U2, where N is the buoyancy frequency, L is the turbulence length scale, and u is the turbulence velocity scale. Molecular effects on the mixing efficiency have been investigated by varying the Prandtl number Pr = V/K, where v is the viscosity and K is the scalar diffusivity. Comparison of the DNS results with grid turbulence experiments has been carried out. There is broad qualitative agreement between the experimental and DNS results.· However the experiments suggest a maximum mixing efficiency of 6% while our DNS gives values about five times higher. Reasons for this discrepancy are investigated. The mixing efficiency has also been determined using linear theory. It is found that the results obtained for the very stable cases converge on those obtained from DNS suggesting that strongly stratified flows exhibit linear behaviour. Lagrangian analysis of mixing is fundamental in understanding turbulent diffusion and mixing. Dispersion models such as that of Pearson, Puttock & Hunt (1983) are based on a Lagrangian approach. A particle-tracking algorithm (using a cubic spline interpolation scheme following Yeung &Pope, 1988) was developed and incorporated into the DNS code to enable an investigation into the fundamental aspects of mixing and diffusion from a Lagrangian perspective following fluid elements. From the simulations, the ensemble averaged rate of mixing as a function of time indicates clearly that nearly all the mixing in these flows occurs within times of order 3 Vu. The mean square vertical displacement statistics show how the stable stratification severely inhibits the vertical displacement of fluid elements but has no effect on displacements in the transverse direction. This is consistent with the Pearson, Puttock & Hunt model. The important link that asymptotic value of the mean square vertical displacement is a measure of the total irreversible mixing that has occurred in the flow is made. However the results show that the change in density of the fluid elements is only weakly correlated to the density fluctuations during the time when most of the mixing occurs, which contradicts a key modeling assumption of the PPH theory. Improvements to the parameterization of this mixing are investigated. Flow structures in stably stratified turbulence were examined using flow visualization software. The turbulence structure for strong stratification resembles randomly scattered pancakes that are flattened in the horizontal plane. It appears that overturning motions are the main mechanism by which mixing occurs in these flows. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2002.

Due to the spread of urbanisation and increased environmental awareness, odour has become a major problem in communities surrounding landfills. The aim of this research was to investigate odour emissions from landfills and develop a management tool that operators could use to assist in minimising the impacts of odour. The management tool would be in the form of real-time predictions of odour concentrations in the vicinity of a source. The Bisasar Road landfill in Springfield, Durban was a case study site for the research. The methodologies used in this project can be divided into three broad categories. Firstly, flow visualisation experiments were conducted on the case study site to investigate the effects of complex terrain and the results compared to predictions from a dispersion model. Secondly, source characterisation was done on-site. Sources of odour were identified using a portable odour monitor (Electronic nose). Sources of odour were then sampled using sorbent tubes and analysis done using Gas Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry. Thirdly, numerical dispersion modelling was done. Five available dispersion models were assessed and compared against one another in order to select the most suitable model for this application. A software management tool or 'Odour Management System' (OMS), was designed and implemented on a computer at the Bisasar Road landfill. Qualitative results of the flow visualisation experiments show that terrain does have an effect on a dispersing plume path for short-range predictions. Comparisons between the flow experiments and model predictions are qualitatively consistent. Quantitative results were not obtained for the emission flow rate and emission concentration of landfill gas. The chemical composition of the fresh waste gas was determined. ADMSTM(Advanced Dispersion Modelling System) was found to be the most suitable dispersion model for this application. The OMS has been installed on-site to produce odour concentration graphics every ten minutes. A fence line odour control misting system has been installed along approximately 600 metres of the landfill border based on work done as part of this project. Weather conditions and information provided by the OMS, assist in running the odour control system economically. / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of Natal,Durban, 2002.

Disposal of garden waste is a major concern globally and particularly in a developing / Thesis (M.Sc.Eng.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2009.