The use of tidal information and its application to, and value within, the study of climate change, sea-level rise and the tides effects on marine life is well known. However, little work has been done on the more technical aspects of tidal measurements and the use within maritime safety in accordance with international standards. This thesis will address the key technical elements in the design and realisation of the national tide gauge network around the South African coastline and how the data collected can be used to increase maritime safety around the South African coast, as well as the additional benefits the data may have both nationally and internationally. The South African Navy's national tide database, both actual records and predictions, as well as current and historical records, was used in order to establish the requirements for a sustainable tide gauge network. In addition, various case studies and data analysis were carried out, as were personal communications with various naval personnel. Establishing and maintaining a sustainable tide gauge network requires research and testing of various tide gauges. Identification of the correct locations to install the tide gauges is key to its success. Although the current South African Tide gauge network is not complete it does provide adequate coverage and is vitally important in the production of navigational products. The manner in which the raw collected tide data is processed and used for creating predictions meets international requirements and standards. Tidal predictions are a necessity for shallow water maritime operations and shallow water navigation, under keel and masthead clearances. The tide gauge network provides data to various organisations for storm surge and tsunami warnings while contributing to the “blue economy” through projects like Operation Phakisa. This thesis provides a comprehensive overview of South Africa's tide gauge network, investigates and justifies the reasons behind the locations and gives in depth examples of the essential use of tidal information for maritime safety.

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A radar altimetry satellite measures the height of sea surface globally. However, tide gauges, measuring Sea Level Height (SLH), are set up on the Earth surface. Hence, SLHs are involved in vertical motion of the Earth crust. In this study, vertical motions of Earth crust have been separated from sea level variations. After clustering of SSH observations with K-means approach, two outlier detection methods Pope and Interquartile (IQR) Tests are implemented in data. Afterwards, each altimetry measurement is relocated to the center point of own cluster by means of geoid height derived from Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08). Before application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to see behavior of SSH inbetween clusters, Lomb Scargle algorithm is run to realize power spectrum of every clustered observations distinctly. Besides, tide gauge measurements are used for extracting 68 constituents with T_Tide program from hourly tide gauge observations. Then, predicted signal is produced by means of classical tidal harmonic analysis. To get monthly and daily mean values of hourly data, MSDOS Processing and Quality Controlling Software (SLPR2) has been run and the results are compared with Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) monthly mean sea level values. Afterwards, the trends from altimetry, tide gauge and GPS are investigated to reveal vertical land motion. This study shows that sea level is rising every year more or less 7 mm at the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. Although Iskenderun tide gauge subsides 50 mm every year, the other stations do not show huge amount of vertical motion.

The present study had two main objectives. The first was to determine the degree of understanding of climate change, sea level and sea level rise among middle school students. Combining open-ended questions with likert-scaled questions, we identified student conceptions on these topics in 86 students from 7th and 8th grades during 2012 and 2013 before and after implementing a Curriculum Unit (CU). Additional information was obtained by adding drawings to the open-ended questions during the second year to gauge how student conceptions varied from a verbal and a visual perspective. Misconceptions were identified both pre- and post-CU among all the topics taught. Students commonly used climate and climate change as synonyms, sea level was often defined as water depth, and several students failed to understand the complexities that determine changes in sea level due to wind, tides, and changes in sea surface temperature. In general, 8th grade students demonstrated a better understanding of these topics, as reflected in fewer apparent misconceptions after the CU. No previous study had reported such improvement. This showed the value of implementing short lessons. Using Piaget’s theories on cognitive development, the differences between 7th and 8th grade students reflect a transition to a more mature level which allowed students to comprehend more complex concepts that included multiple variables. The second objective was to determine if the frequency of sea level maxima not associated with tides over the last 100 years increased in two tide gauges located on the two extremes of the Panama canal, i.e. Balboa in the Pacific Ocean and Cristobal in the Caribbean Sea. These records were compared to time series of regional sea surface temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to determine if these played a role as physical drivers of sea level at either location. Neither record showed an increase in the frequency of sea level maxima events. No parameter analyzed explained variability in sea level maxima in Cristobal. There was a significant correlation between the zonal component of the wind and sea level at Balboa for the early record (r=0.153; p-value0.05). There was a clear relationship between sea level maxima and ENSO. 70% of the years with higher counts of higher sea level events corresponded to El Niño years. A randomization test with 1000 iterations, shuffling the El Niño years, showed most of these randomizations grouped between 14-35% of the events occurring during a randomized El Niño year. In no iteration did the percentage of events that occurred during El Niño years rise above 65%. The correlation with zonal wind and the probable correlation with sea surface temperature can be linked via ENSO, since ENSO is associated with changes in the strength of the Trade Winds and positive anomalies in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Dans le contexte de la hausse actuelle du niveau marin, la détermination du mouvement vertical à la côte est cruciale pour deux principales raisons. D’une part, parce qu’il est enregistré dans la mesure marégraphique et constitue une source d’incertitude dans l’estimation des variations long terme du niveau marin (suivant les auteurs ces variations sont de l’ordre de 1 à 2 mm/an de montée au cours du siècle passé). Et d’autre part, parce que les processus de subsidence à la côte sont un facteur aggravant des effets de la montée du niveau marin avec parfois des taux qui résultent en une montée relative du niveau marin de l’ordre de 1 cm/an, soit des projections de 1 mètre en un siècle, sans accélération des contributions climatiques actuelles. Cette thèse de doctorat s’attaque à la détermination des mouvements verticaux à la côte par GPS et par une méthode originale de combinaison des données de marégraphie et d’altimétrie radar embarquée sur satellite. La méthode proposée ici est basée sur celle de Kuo et al. (2004), reprise et étendue en appliquant un filtrage spatio-temporel issu de l’analyse EOF des deux types de séries de données. La méthode est appliquée dans le Golfe du Mexique sur la période 1950-2009 en utilisant les quinze séries marégraphiques de plus de 40 ans d’observations disponibles dans la région au PSMSL et les séries altimétriques mises à disposition dans AVISO sur la période 1992-2009. La comparaison avec les mouvements verticaux issus des cinq séries de positions de stations GPS co-localisées avec marégraphes montre un écart moyen quadratique sur les différences de 0.60 mm/an révélant la grande précision de la nouvelle approche. Les séries temporelles GPS ont préalablement fait l’objet d’une analyse poussée du bruit et des incertitudes associées, légitimant l’utilisation des séries GPS dans la correction des tendances du niveau marin obtenues des marégraphes. Les incertitudes obtenues des vitesses verticales GPS sont de l’ordre de 0.5 mm/an ce qui est significativement inférieur à d’autres analyses de ce type. La méthode altimétrie moins marégraphie mise au point offre donc des perspectives intéressantes dans la détermination précise des mouvements verticaux côtiers où il n’existe pas de mesures géodésiques. / In the context of the current sea level rise, the determination of coastal vertical land motion is crucial for two main reasons. In one hand, tide gauge measurements are affected by vertical displacements and this is a source of uncertainties for the estimation of long-term sea level variations ( those variations are in the order of 1 to 2 mm/yr of sea level rise during the last century according to different authors). On the other hand, coastal subsiding processes could aggravate the effects of sea level rise with rates leading sometimes to 1 cm/yr of relative sea level rise, that is 1 meter over a century, without any acceleration of climatic contribution. This PhD thesis addresses the determination of coastal vertical land movement by GPS and by an original method combining the data from both tide gauge and satellite radar altimetry. The method which is suggested here is based on those of Kuo et al., (2004), repeated and extended by spatio-temporal filtering from EOF analysis of the two kinds of series. The method is applied in the Gulf of Mexico over the period 1950-2009 using the available fifteen tide gauge series of more than 40 years of observations selected from the PSMSL and altimetric series selected from AVISO over the period 1992-2009. The comparison between vertical land movements from the five position time series of the GPS stations collocated at tide gauge locations shows a root mean square error of 0.60 mm/an over the difference , highlighting the high accuracy of the new approach. Beforehand, GPS time series underwent a detailed noise analysis and their associated uncertainties, legitimating the use of GPS series in the correction of tide gauge sea level trends. The uncertainties from GPS vertical velocities are in the order of 0.5 mm/yr which is significantly lower than other analysis of this type. The adjusted method altimetry minus tide gauge presents interesting prospects for the accurate determination of coastal land motion where there are not geodetic measurements.

Tidal data forms the basis for understanding and quantifying sea-level rise and tidal statistics. While quality assurance methods based upon spectral and harmonic analysis have been applied to individual tidal records, these methods have not been used to assess global tidal datasets. In this thesis, four west coast tidal records were examined using harmonic analysis methods to investigate uncertainty on a monthly averaged basis. Uncertainty was identified using a method that quantifies time lag as a linear regression of height difference between a predicted and measured tidal height and the predicted rate of change of tidal height. Errors identified through this method were validated by visual inspection of qualitative records and digitization of daily staff/gauge comparisons. Of the 1188 total months investigated using the time-lag based estimates, 41 months of high uncertainty were identified validated through comparison with staff/gauge comparisons. Six additional months of high uncertainty were identified by the time-lag based method but were not apparent in staff-gauge comparisons. An additional 55 months of possibly inadequate data were only identified by staff/gauge comparisons. These 55 cases were shown to relate to either staff measurement error or short-term gauge issues. For problems that persisted over a month, a binning approach was used to create a statistically significant relationship between estimated time lag and the uncertainty in the water level measurement. In the future, this regression could be applied to assess uncertainty in other tidal datasets.

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Recent events such as the New Orleans floods and the Japanese tsunami of 2011 have highlighted the uncertainty in the quantification of the magnitude of natural hazards. The research undertaken here has focussed on the uncertainty in evaluating storm surge magnitudes based on a range of statistical techniques including the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, Joint Probability and Monte Carlo simulations. To support the evaluation of storm surge frequency magnitude relationships a unique hard copy observed sea level data set, recording hourly observations, was acquired and digitised for Devonport, Plymouth, creating a 40 year data set. In conjunction with Devonport data, Newlyn (1915-2012) tide gauge records were analysed, creating a data set of 2 million data points. The different statistical techniques analysed led to an uncertainty range of 0.4 m for a 1 in 250 year storm surge event, and 0.7 m for a 1 in 1000 storm surge event. This compares to a 0.5 m uncertainty range between the low and high prediction for sea level rise by 2100. The Geographical Information system modelling of the uncertainty indicated that for a 1 in 1000 year event the level uncertainty (0.7 m) led to an increase of 100% of buildings and 50% of total land affect. Within the study area of south-west England there are several critical structures including a nuclear licensed site. Incorporating the uncertainty in storm surge and wave height predictions indicated that the site would be potentially affected today with the combination of a 1 in 1000 year storm surge event coincident with a 1 in 1000 wave. In addition to the evaluation of frequency magnitude relations this study has identified several trends in the data set. Over the data period sea level rise is modelled as an exponential growth (0.0001mm/yr2), indicating the modelled sea level rise of 1.9 mm/yr and 2.2 mm/yr for Newlyn and Devonport, will potentially increase over the next century by a minimum of 0.2 m by 2100.The increase in storm frequency identified as part of this analysis has been equated to the rise in sea level, rather than an increase in the severity of storms, with decadal variations in the observed frequency, potentially linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The identification as part of this study of a significant uncertainty in the evaluation of storm surge frequency magnitude relationships has global significance in the evaluation of natural hazards. Guidance on the evaluation of external hazards currently does not adequately consider the effect of uncertainty; an uncertainty of 0.7 m identified within this study could potentially affect in the region of 500 million people worldwide living close to the coast.

Contemporary and future relative sea-level (RSL) rise that can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change sees significant spatial variability as a result of the processes that underlie it. Some of the processes that contribute to RSL rise unrelated to anthropogenic climate change can and have had significant contributions. In this work, we examined the contributions of one of these processes, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), in the coastal regions of Atlantic Europe. These regions have seen significant RSL rise associated with a collapsing peripheral bulge throughout the Holocene and are expected to see more throughout the Anthropocene. Using the recently published paleo sea level database (García-Artola et al., 2018) which follows the HOLSEA RSL data assessment and reporting protocol (Khan et al., 2019) we determined optimal Earth model parameters for much of Atlantic Europe. These optimal parameters fit the data well and largely agree with values determined for previous works on peripheral bulges along the coasts of North America. We further used these results to perform a rudimentary sea-level budget analysis at 10 tide gauge stations, yielding results with high uncertainties and significant discrepancies between observed and projected rates of RSL change for half (5) of the tide gauge stations. Our results lead to the conclusion that GIA remains an important factor when predicting present and future RSL change.