published_or_final_version / abstract / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / abstract / Urban Planning and Environmental Management / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Efficient and comprehensive forecasting of information is of great importance to traffic management. Three types of forecasting methods based on irregularly spaced data—for situations when traffic detectors cannot be installed to generate regularly spaced data on all roads—are studied in this thesis, namely, the single segment forecasting method, multi-segment forecasting method and model-based forecasting method. The proposed models were tested using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from 400 Hong Kong taxis collected within a 2-kilometer section on Princess Margaret Road and Hong Chong Road, approaching the Cross Harbour Tunnel. The speed limit for the road is 70 km/h. It has flyovers and ramps, with a small number of merges and diverges. There is no signalized intersection along this road section. A total of 14 weeks of data were collected, in which the first 12 weeks of data were used to calibrate the models and the last two weeks of data were used for validation. The single-segment forecasting method for irregularly spaced data uses a neural network to aggregate the predicted speeds from the naive method, simple exponential smoothing method and Holt’s method, with explicit consideration of acceleration information. The proposed method shows a great improvement in accuracy compared with using the individual forecasting method separately. The acceleration information, which is viewed as an indicator of the phase-transition effect, is considered to be the main contribution to the improvement. The multi-segment forecasting method aggregates not only the information from the current forecasting segment, but also from adjacent segments. It adopts the same sub-methods as the single-segment forecasting method. The forecasting results from adjacent segments help to describe the phase-transition effect, so that the forecasting results from the multi-segment forecasting method are more accurate than those that are obtained from the single segment forecasting method. For one-second forecasting length, the correlation coefficient between the forecasts from the multi-segment forecasting method and observations is 0.9435, which implies a good consistency between the forecasts and observations. While the first two methods are based on pure data fitting techniques, the third method is based on traffic models and is called the model-based forecasting method. Although the accuracy of the one-second forecasting length of the model-based method lies between those of the single-segment and multi-segment forecasting methods, its accuracy outperforms the other two for longer forecasting steps, which offers a higher potential for practical applications. / published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Master / Master of Philosophy

No description available.

published_or_final_version / abstract / Urban Planning and Environmental Management / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

At head of cover title: Australian Road Research Board / Bibliography: leaves 108-114 / xi, 114 leaves : ill ; 25 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, 1971

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Transportation engineering has taken upon a new role; to empower the alternative modes of travel: walking, biking, and bus transit. In this new era, engineers are rethinking a network designed predominately for the automobile. The ultimate goal of this research is to create a process that can make a vehicle dominant corridor a desirable, livable thoroughfare by livability design and context sensitive performance measures. Balancing travel modes requires an account of vehicular traffic and the impact of reconfiguring existing conditions. The analysis herein is conducted by field data collection, transportation equations and microsimulation. Simulating traffic behavior will be the means to apply livable alternatives comparable to existing Southeast Florida conditions. The results herein have shown that micro-simulation can be utilized in transportation planning to reveal good livability alternatives. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2015 / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Thesis. 1978. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND AERONAUTICS. / Includes bibliographical references. / M.S.