Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Delaware, 2009. / Principal faculty advisor: James L. Butkiewicz, Dept. of Economics. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Brandeis University, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-111)

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Brandeis University, International Business School, 2006. / Adviser: Blake LeBaron. Includes bibliographical references (p. 107-111)

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This research attempts to empirically examine the bank-lending channel in monetary policy transmission in Rwanda, using quarterly data for the period 1996Q1 to 2011Q4. The responses of the loans supply, real output, prices, and deposits to monetary policy innovations were investigated in this research, using impulse response functions and variance decompositions obtained from a Vector Autoregressive model (VAR). Estimation results revealed that the bank lending channel in Rwanda is less effective. The findings suggest that although monetary policies working through interest rates have a significant effect on bank loans, loans appear to not influence the real output level. As in other developing economies, the financial sector in Rwanda is still weak. As a result of the absence of long- term investment, bank customers bear the risk associated with the poor quality of loans in addition to the risk associated with high and variable inflation. These are likely to hamper the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

This thesis investigated the role of monetary policy in Namibia for the period 1993 to 2011. It aims at achieving six objectives. First, it reviews the evolution of monetary policy in Namibia for the period 1980 to 2011. Second, it investigates the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Namibia. Third, it analyses the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Namibia. Fourth, it evaluates the exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Namibia. Fifth, it studies the money effect model in the context of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Namibia. Sixth, it examines the exchange rate pass–through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Namibia. In order to achieve the objectives of the relative importance of the different channels of monetary policy transmission, a structural vector autoregressive model of the Namibian economy is constructed. Specifically the responses of the output and prices to monetary policy shocks for Namibia over the quarterly period 1993:Q1 to 2011:Q4 are investigated using impulse response functions and forecast variance error decompositions obtained from a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). The thesis also examined the exchange rate pass-through from exchange rate to domestic prices using both SVAR and the single equation error correction model (ECM). Estimation results on the different channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism showed that the interest rate channel and the credit channel are effective in transmitting monetary policy actions. The exchange rate channel is also operative but not effective. The money effect model confirms that inflation in Namibia is not a monetary phenomenon. The results of the pass-through relationship showed that there is an incomplete but high exchange rate pass-through from exchange rate to domestic prices.

The topic of financial contagion has attracted increased attention in economic literature over the past three decades; in particular after the Asian crisis of 1997. This dissertation investigates financial contagion and its effects on South Africa after the 2007 global financial crisis. In particular, it examines whether South Africa experienced contagion from the United States stock market to its own over the period 1 July 2007 to 1 April 2009 within the strict definition of contagion or otherwise: the fraction of exceedance events in the stock market that is left unexplained by its own covariates but is explained by the exceedance from another region. This is tested empirically with a binomial-nominal logistic model. In addition to this, various financial and trade transmission mechanisms are tested to empirically determine through which channels the crisis was propagated. The analysis makes use of quarterly data from January 2002 to April 2009, within an OLS framework, with a dummy variable differentiating the periods before and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The findings suggest that contagion was in fact not present in this crisis, which speaks to market rationality and indicates that the South African stock market did in fact react rationally to a changing macroeconomic environment over this period. The transmission mechanism analyses indicate that there was a change in the interdependence relationship between the two stock markets following the crash of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. It is apparent that both trade and financial variables played significant roles in the propagation of this crisis.