An eddy-permitting 2-1/2-layer Reduced Gravity Ocean (RGO) model is developed. Compared with the conventional 2-1/2-layer RGO models, the new model has improvements in subsurface thermodynamics, vertical mixing scheme and open boundary conditions. Using this new 2-1/2-layer RGO model as a dynamical tool, a systematic investigation of the role of oceanic processes in controlling tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) response to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) changes is carried out by varying the strength of northward mass transport at the open boundaries. It is found that the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) reverses its direction in response to a shut-down of the AMOC. Such circulation change allows warm waters of the northern subtropical gyre enter the equatorial zone, giving rise to a prominent warming in the Gulf of Guinea and off the coast of Africa. Sensitivity experiments further show that the SST response behaves nonlinearly to AMOC changes. The rate of SST changes increases dramatically when the AMOC strength is below a threshold value. This nonlinear threshold behavior depends on the position of subsurface temperature gradient. The new RGO is coupled to an atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) (CCM3.6). The coupled model is capable of capturing major features of tropical Atlantic variability. With the aid of this coupled model, a series of experiments with different combinations of oceanic and atmospheric processes are carried out to elucidate the relative importance of the oceanic processes and atmospheric processes in AMOC-induced tropical Atlantic variability/change. It is found that the oceanic processes are a primary factor contributing to the warming at and south of the equator and the precipitation increase over the Gulf of Guinea, while atmospheric processes are responsible for the surface cooling of the tropical north Atlantic and southward displacement of ITCZ. The sensitivity of the coupled system to different strength of the AMOC is further investigated. It is found that equatorial SST and precipitation response also behaves nonlinearly to AMOC changes. The impact of AMOC changes on Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) is assessed. It is found that the activity of TIWs is reduced in response to the AMOC-induced equatorial SST warming. Correlation analysis suggests that AMOC may affect TIW activities by modifying SST gradient north of the equator.

This dissertation discusses the predictability of the atmosphere-ocean climate system on interannual and decadal timescales. We investigate the extent to which the atmospheric internal variability (weather noise) can cause climate prediction to lose skill; and we also look for the oceanic processes that contribute to the climate predictability via interaction with the atmosphere. First, we develop a framework for assessing the predictability of a linear stochastic system. Based on the information of deterministic dynamics and noise forcing, various predictability measures are defined and new predictability-analysis tools are introduced. For the sake of computational efficiency, we also discuss the formulation of a low-order model within the context of four reduction methods: modal, EOF, most predictable pattern, and balanced truncation. Subsequently, predictabilities of two specific physical systems are investigated within such framework. The first is a mixed layer model of SST with focus on the effect of oceanic advection.Analytical solution of a one-dimensional model shows that even though advection can give rise to a pair of low-frequency normal modes, no enhancement in the predictability is found in terms of domain averaged error variance. However, a Predictable Component Analysis (PrCA) shows that advection can play a role in redistributing the predictable variance. This analytical result is further tested in a more realistic two-dimensional North Atlantic model with observed mean currents. The second is a linear coupled model of tropical Atlantic atmosphere-ocean system. Eigen-analysis reveals that the system has two types of coupled modes: a decadal meridional mode and an interannual equatorial mode. The meridional mode, which manifests itself as a dipole pattern in SST, is controlled by thermodynamic feedback between wind, latent heat flux, and SST, and modified by ocean heat transport. The equatorial mode, which manifests itself as an SST anomaly in the eastern equatorial basin, is dominated by dynamic feedback between wind, thermocline, upwelling, and SST. The relative strength of thermodynamic vs dynamic feedbacks determines the behavior of the coupled system, and enables the tropical Atlantic variability to be more predictable than the passive-ocean scenario.