Studies have shown that urban areas enhance mesoscale precipitation but have not revealed if urban areas have the same effect on synoptic scale precipitation. This study used Multi-Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) stage III data to examine the effect of urban areas on rainfall associated with hurricanes and tropical storms from 1976–2005. These urban areas were divided into upwind and downwind areas where 6-hour precipitation totals were calculated and compared. Results displayed that 69.2% of urban areas had greater rainfall in the upwind area. Statistical analyses revealed that there is a larger range of higher precipitation values in the upwind area and a smaller range of lower precipitation values in the downwind area. Therefore, instead of urban areas enhancing tropical rainfall it weakens the rainfall. Based on the results, there is no relationship between urban areas and enhanced rainfall; however, there is a relationship between the distribution of precipitation and urban areas.

Among natural disasters affecting the United States, North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for the highest economic losses and are one of the main causes of fatalities. Although we cannot prevent these storms from occurring, skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity and associated impacts can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. Unfortunately, it is not yet possible to predict heavy rainfall and flooding associated with these storms several months in advance, and the lead time is limited to few days at the most. On the other hand, overall North Atlantic TC activity can be potentially predicted with a six- to nine-month lead time. This thesis focuses on the evaluation of the skill in predicting basin-wide North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time and rainfall with a short lead time. For the seasonal forecast of TC activity, we develop statistical-dynamical forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs using only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as covariates. Our results show that skillful predictions of North Atlantic TC activity are possible starting from November for a TC season that peaks in the August-October months. The short term forecasting of rainfall associated with TC activity is based on five numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Our analyses focused on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the period of 2007-2012. The skill of the NWP models is quantified by visual examination of the distribution of the errors for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution. Based on our results, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead times up to 48 hours, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.

Global climate change is predicted to affect timing and severity of disturbance events (e.g., fire, drought, hurricanes, wind storms, and inundation), but the extent of these disturbance events and their impacts on natural ecosystems may vary regionally. Rising sea level, increased frequency and intensity of tropical storms, and altered inundation regimes are likely to create changing environmental conditions in low-lying coastal ecosystems. These large scale disturbances may increase resource availability and regeneration spaces, reduce competition, and possibly increase community vulnerability to invasion. Shifting disturbance regimes and invasion together are predicted to drive long-term shifts in coastal plant community structure and ecosystem processes. However, impacts of altered environmental conditions on native and invasive plant species and the species responses to changed environmental conditions are poorly understood. The aims of this study were: (i) to assess the probability of occurrence of juveniles of the invasive exotic Triadica sebifera and co-occurring native species, Baccharis halimifolia, Ilex vomitoria, and Morella cerifera in the field in relation to surrounding environmental factors, (ii) to assess the effects of elevated salinity across a typical coastal transition on germination of T. sebifera, B. halimifolia and M. cerifera, using controlled growth chamber and greenhouse experiments, (iii) to assess the effects of climate change and shifting inundation and tropical storms regimes on T. sebifera, B. halimifolia and M. cerifera, and (iv) to evaluate the role of vesicular arbuscular mycorrhizae (VAM) on spread of invasive T. sebifera in coastal transition ecosystems at the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (GBNERR), Coastal Mississippi, southeastern USA. Results from assessing the probability of occurrence of juveniles of invasive and co-occurring native species showed that soil water conductivity (i.e., salinity) was the major factor related to the occurrence of invasive T. sebifera and native B. halimifolia, I. vomitoria and M. cerifera along the coastal transitions. Probability of occurrence of the invasive T. sebifera was significantly related to landscape factors and occurrence was highest in close proximity to roads, trails, power lines, and recreational sites, and water bodies. These results imply that future increases in salinity will negatively impact I. vomitoria, M. cerifera, and T. sebifera, leading to range contraction of these species away from the coast. However, natural and anthropogenic disturbances that often increase resource pulses and reduce competition, likely increase the dominance of T. sebifera in already invaded areas. Positive effects of landscape structures on T. sebifera occupancy highlight the role of landscape variables in promoting new invasions in coastal forests of the southeastern USA. Controlled growth chamber and greenhouse germination experiments demonstrated that germination of all species (i.e., T. sebifera, B. halimifolia, and M. cerifera) decreased with elevated salinity and that the reduction was most pronounced in soils from the most seaward zones along the coastal transition. Although native B. halimifolia was least sensitive to elevated salinity, invasive T. sebifera displayed plasticity of germination trait across different salinity levels in most inland soils. These results suggest that the phenotypic plasticity may facilitate spread of Triadica sebifera under some degree of salinity stress in more inland section of the coastal transition. A manipulative greenhouse experiment demonstrated that simulated canopy damage from intense hurricane winds and associated storm surge produced differential effects on survival and growth of native (B. halimifolia and M. cerifera) and invasive (T. sebifera) species at simulated different forest conditions common in the GBNERR. Invasive T. sebifera was by far the most shade tolerant of the three species and seedling survival under highly shaded conditions may provide it with a competitive edge over native species during community reassembly following tropical storms. T. sebifera may better utilize post-hurricane conditions (e.g., resource-rich empty spaces) and potentially increase its dominance in coastal forested ecosystems. The last experimental study revealed that invasive T. sebifera had higher VAM colonization compared to co-occurring native species both in controlled greenhouse and field experiments, and that the higher colonization leads to significant increases in aboveground biomass, supporting the hypothesis that VAM fungi strongly benefit the invasive species. These results suggest that the VAM colonization may be necessary for the initial establishment of T. sebifera along the coastal transitions. Furthermore, my research also suggested that T. sebifera was not allelopathic and did not interfere with growth of native species. Overall, the findings of this research provide insight into the impacts of climate change related shifts on performance of invasive and co-occurring native species across coastal transitions of the southeastern USA. Variation in invasive and co-occurring native species' performances under changed environmental conditions (e.g., elevated salinity and increased light availability) and improved mutualistic association between invasive T. sebifera and VAM fungi may drive increased invasion with frequent community reassembly of low-lying coastal ecosystems undergoing rapid climate change.

HURDAT is the main historical archive of all tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, from 1851 to the present. HURDAT is maintained and updated annually by the National Hurricane Center at Miami, Florida. Today, HURDAT is widely used by research scientists, operational hurricane forecasters, insurance companies, emergency managers and others. HURDAT contains both systematic biases and random errors. Thus, the reanalysis of HURDAT is vital. For this thesis, HURDAT is reanalyzed for the period of 1954-1963. The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone in HURDAT is assessed in the light of 21st century understanding and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones are detected and analyzed. The resulting changes will be recommended to the National Hurricane Center Best Track Change Committee for inclusion in HURDAT.