Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical cyclones during the 2003 and 2004 seasons using the climatology and persistence technique called ST5D as a measure of skill. A framework of three phases: (i) initial intensification; (ii) maximum intensity with possible decay/reintensification cycles; and (iii) decay was used to examine the skill. During both the formation and intensification stages, only about 60% of the 24-36 h forecasts were within +/- 10 kt, and the predominant tendency was to under-forecast the intensity. None of the guidance techniques predicted rapid intensification well. All of the techniques tended to under-forecast maximum intensity and miss decay/reintensification cycles. A few of the techniques provided useful guidance on the magnitude of the decay, although the timing of the decay was often missed. Whereas about 60-70% of the 12-h to 72-h forecasts by the various techniques during the decay phase were within +/- 10 kt, the strong bias was to not decay the cyclone rapidly enough. In general the techniques predict too narrow a range of intensity changes for both intensification and decay. / Captain, United States Air Force

The climatology of precipitation asymmetries in Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and their relationship to TC intensity changes using 16 years of data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. TC Inner core precipitation asymmetries were quantified using the Fourier wavenumber decomposition method upon the pixel level data of 3,542 TRMM TMI overpasses. Composites of wavenumber–1 and wavenumber 1–6 total precipitation asymmetries were constructed to show the distribution pattern under different storm motion speed, vertical wind shear and the combined effects of varying vertical wind shear and storm motion. Results indicate that motion–relative total precipitation asymmetry is located down–motion. The phase of motion–relative maximum asymmetry shifts cyclonically by adding the wavenumber–2–6 asymmetry to wavenumber–1. Shear is more dominant than motion on the distribution of precipitation asymmetry. The analysis of combined effects of motion and shear shows when shear is weak, and shear is to the left of motion, the precipitation asymmetry is explained more by storm motion. The main contributor to the general asymmetry pattern is from the moderate and heavy precipitation. The wavenumber 2–6 energy localizes the maximum heavy precipitation asymmetry. The quantified wavenumber 1–6 asymmetries is also applied to differentiate between different intensity change categories and the asymmetry evolution of a rapidly intensifying storm. The precipitation asymmetry properties of rapid intensification (RI) and non–RI storms are examined. The dataset of 2,186 global tropical storms through category 2 hurricanes is divided by future 24–h intensity change and includes storms with at least moderately favorable environmental conditions. The normalized wavenumber 1–6 asymmetries, indicates quantitatively that the lower asymmetry of precipitation is most strongly correlated with future intensity change. The precipitation field of non–RI storms are more asymmetric than RI storms. The 595 sampled overpasses are classified into 14 categories in the timeline of an RI event from 48 hours before RI until RI ends. The decrease of normalized wavenumber 1–6 asymmetries in the inner core region of all four types of precipitation several hours before RI onset was quantitatively demonstrated to be critical for TC RI.

Decades of research have fostered a greater understanding of the environmental controls that drive tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change, yet the community has achieved only small improvements in intensity forecasting. Numerous environmental factors impact TC intensity, such as vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures (SSTs), but little research has focused on establishing if SST change under the TC, or SST gradients, influence these intensity changes. This study investigated three methods to compute SST gradients. The first method calculated the SST change within fixed distances along the track. In the second and third methods, the SST was calculated over the distance traversed by the TC in two separate six-hour periods. By examining 455 24-hour weakening episodes in the eastern North Pacific, this study revealed that the first SST gradient method explained the highest 24-hour weakening variance for TCs located within SSTs at or lower than 26.5 degrees C.