研究以湖南省松糖事件为例，分析中国农民的抗征地对中央政府信任的影响。研究认为，征地形式、上访过程获取的信息及其上访结果都会影响对中央的信任水平。具体来说，研究有三个主要观点：第一，相比公共项目征地、参与式征地和不威胁生存安全的征地，商业项目征地、命令式征地以及威胁生存安全的征地形式会更容易导致上访。在这些征地中，抗争者提出的诉求由于超越了相关的政策法律因此很难得到地方政府的满足。第二，上访过程中农民对中央信任的变化分为三个阶段：首先，抗争者将中央与其以下政府区别开来，并对中央保持着高水平的信任；接着，多次的进京上访使抗争者获取了有关中央的信息，包括中央已经了解了他们的问题并且这些问题值得重视；最后，失败的抗争结果导致对中央能力和意图的信任同时下降。第三，对中央信任的下降并不一定会导致公民选举要求的提出，这是因为传统的政治文化和无效的村庄选举使农民的政治效能感维持在低水平。 / Drawing on the data from the Song-tang incident in Hunan province, the research examines the influences of resistance to land expropriation in rural China on political trust in the central government. The study argues that forms of land expropriation, information gained through petitioning and outcomes of petitioning have influences on trust in the center. Specifically, there are three main arguments. Firstly, compared with land expropriation for public use, in participatory manners, and without negative influences on living security, land expropriation for commercial use, in imperative manners, and with negative influences on living security is more likely to cause petitioning. In the three forms of land expropriation, claims are hardly satisfied by local governments since they have surpassed the state rules. Secondly, during petitioning trust in the center changes in three phases: at the beginning, resisters distinguish the center from lower-level governments and retain high-level trust in the center. Secondly, activists gain increasing information about the center during times of petitioning to Beijing. They realize that the center has known their grievances, which are also worth its attention. Finally, failure of resistances results in decline of trust in the center’s capacity as well as trust in its commitment. Thirdly, the declined trust in the center does not necessarily imply the demand for popular elections. Due to traditional political culture and ineffective village elections, political efficacy of the farmers remains at a low level. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / 劉靜平. / Parallel title from English abstract. / Thesis (M.Phil.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2015. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 59-65). / Abstracts also in English. / Liu Jingping.

本研究發現一個地區的經濟發展水平與當地居民對中央政府的信任程度負相關。 / 本研究包括定量和定性兩個部份。定量部份，普通最小二乘線性回歸(OLS)分析和雙層回歸分析的結果顯示：區域經濟發展水平與人們對中央政府的信任存在顯著的負相關關係。控制了個人因素變量，上述相關關係仍然顯著。定性分析部份討論了傳統文化與信息流通在發達地區和欠發達地區如何影響政府信任。這部份分析發現文化因素和信息因素是導致某一地區的民眾比另一地區民眾更不相信中央政府的重要因素，但必須與經濟發展因素相結合才能發揮顯著作用。文化與信息受當地的經濟發展水平影響：一個地區的經濟發展水平越高，傳統文化的影響力越弱，信息化程度越高；反之，經濟發展水平越低，傳統文化的影響力越強，信息化程度越低。定量分析與定性分析都支持研究假設。 / 把上述靜態觀察納入動態視角，從長遠看，區域經濟發展將削弱公眾對中央政府的信任。具體來說，假定目前的局勢延續，隨著中國越來越多的地區經濟得到發展，當地民眾對中央政府的信任會相應降低。據此推測，中國人的政府信任可能會經歷一個由“中央高、地方低再變為“中央低、地方更低的過程。 / This research shows that the level of economic development in a region has a negative correlation with local residents’ trust in the central government. / This study draws on both quantitative and qualitative analyses. In the quantitative section, both OLS regression and hierarchical linear modeling show that the level of regional economic development has a significant negative correlation with public trust in the central government, controlling for individual factors. Qualitative analysis suggests that traditional culture and the flow of political information affect people’s trust in government when they interact with economic development. In places where economy is underdeveloped, traditional culture has a larger impact and the flow of political information is less free. By contrast, in places where economy is more developed, traditional culture has a weaker effect and the flow of political information is freer. / Putting the finding of the cross-sectional analysis into a dynamic perspective, it is suggested that the development of local economy may in the long run weaken local residents’ trust in the central government. More specifically, assuming that the present situation continues, as more and more regions experience economic growth, local residents may develop weaker confidence in the central government. The pattern of trust in government may then evolve from the current “high trust in the central government and lower trust in local government into “low trust in the central government and even lower trust in local government. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / 呂書鵬. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 157-173). / Abstracts in Chinese and English. / Lü Shupeng. / 內容摘要 --- p.i / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / 致謝 --- p.iii / Chapter 第1章 --- 概論 --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- 問題的提出 --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- 相關概念 --- p.4 / Chapter 1.3 --- 研究方法 --- p.7 / Chapter 1.4 --- 研究框架 --- p.8 / Chapter 1.5 --- 研究局限 --- p.10 / Chapter 第2章 --- 文獻綜述 --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1 --- 政府信任 --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- 政府信任的重要性 --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- 政府信任的特點 --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2 --- 政府信任的影響因素 --- p.25 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- 經濟因素 --- p.27 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- 社會文化因素 --- p.28 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- 政治因素 --- p.29 / Chapter 2.2.4 --- 政府因素 --- p.33 / Chapter 2.2.5 --- 信息因素 --- p.34 / Chapter 2.3 --- 中國政府信任研究現狀 --- p.37 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- 中國傳統文化與政府信任 --- p.37 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- 規則意識與權利意識 --- p.39 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- 差序政府信任 --- p.40 / Chapter 2.3.4 --- 政府信任與政治參與 --- p.41 / Chapter 2.4 --- 本章小結 --- p.45 / Chapter 第3章 --- 數據描述 --- p.46 / Chapter 3.1 --- 數據介紹 --- p.46 / Chapter 3.2 --- 描述性分析 --- p.47 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- 政府信任在地區間的差異 --- p.47 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- 政府信任在地區間的分佈特點 --- p.52 / Chapter 3.3 --- 本章小結 --- p.54 / Chapter 第4章 --- 回歸模型分析 --- p.56 / Chapter 4.1 --- 單層線性回歸模型 --- p.56 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- 變量 --- p.56 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- 回歸分析 --- p.59 / Chapter 4.2 --- 雙層線性回歸模型 --- p.67 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- 個體層次變量 --- p.70 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- 分層次線性模型的構建 --- p.77 / Chapter 4.3 --- 本章小結 --- p.89 / Chapter 第5章 --- 討論 --- p.91 / Chapter 5.1 --- 政府信任影響因素在區域間的變異 --- p.91 / Chapter 5.2 --- 發達地區居民不相信政府的啟示 --- p.106 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- 傳統政治信任體系將難以為繼 --- p.106 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- 差序政府信任的產生和消亡 --- p.109 / Chapter 5.3 --- 作為自變量的政府信任 --- p.126 / Chapter 5.4 --- 本章小結 --- p.137 / Chapter 第6章 --- 結論 --- p.140 / Chapter 附錄一： --- 訪談對象列表 --- p.143 / Chapter 附錄二： --- 本研究所涉及的2008年China Survey的問題 --- p.147 / Chapter 附錄三： --- 73個縣/區以地方政府信任為自變量的截距和斜率 --- p.150 / Chapter 附錄四： --- 與論文相關的非學術性文檔列表 --- p.152 / 參考文獻 --- p.157