Univ., Diss.--Freiburg (Breisgau), 2006.

Originally presented as the author's thesis (Ph. D.)--WHU, Otto-Beisheim School of Management, Vallendar, Germany. / Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (p. 195-205) and index.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2003. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 103-108). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2003. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 103-108). Also available on the Internet.

published_or_final_version / Computer Science / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Not available / text

Fluid networks are useful tools for analyzing complex manufacturing environments especially in semiconductor wafer fabrication. The makespan of a fluid network is defined as the time to drain the system, when there is fluid present in the buffers initially. Based on this definition, the question of determining the allocation of resources so as to minimize the makespan of a fluid network is known as the makespan problem. In the deterministic version of the makespan problem, it is assumed that the parameters of the system, such as incoming rates, service rates and initial inventory, are known deterministically. The deterministic version of the makespan problem for reentrant lines and multiclass fluid networks has been investigated in the literature and an analytical solution for the problem is well-known. In this work, we provide another formulation for the deterministic makespan problem and prove that the problem can be solved for each station separately. Optimal solutions for the deterministic makespan problem have been used as a guide to develop heuristics methods to solve makespan scheduling problem in the job-shop context in the literature. This provides one motivation for further investigation of the fluid makespan problem. In this work our main focus is solving the makespan problem when the problem parameters are uncertain. This uncertainty may be caused by various factors such as the unpredictability of the arrival process or randomness in machine availability due to failures. In the presence of parameter uncertainty, the decision maker's goal is to optimally allocate the capacity in order to minimize the expected value of the makespan. We assume that the decision maker has distributional information about the parameters at the time of decision making. We consider two decision making schemes. In the first scheme, the controller sets the allocations before observing the parameters. After the initial allocations are set, they cannot be changed. In the second scheme, the controller is allowed a recourse action after a data collection process. It is shown that in terms of obtaining the optimal control, both schemes differ considerably from the deterministic version of the problem. We formulate both schemes using stochastic programming techniques. The first scheme is easier to analyze since the resulting model is convex. Unfortunately, under the second decision scheme, the objective function is non-convex. We develop a branch-and-bound methodology to solve the resulting stochastic non-convex program. Finally, we identify some special cases where the stochastic problem is analytically solvable. This work uses stochastic programming techniques to formulate and solve a problem arising in queueing networks. Stochastic programming and queueing systems are two major areas of Operations Research that deal with decision making under uncertainty. To the best of our knowledge, this dissertation is one of the first works that brings these two major areas together.

published_or_final_version / Electrical and Electronic Engineering / Master / Master of Philosophy

Reservoir systems are subject to several uncertainties that are the result of imperfect knowledge about system behavior and inputs. A major source of uncertainty arises from the inability to predict future inflows. Fortunately, it is often possible to generate probabilistic forecasts of inflow volumes in the form of probability density functions or ensembles. These inflow forecasts can be coupled with stochastic management models to determine reservoir release policies and provide stakeholders with meaningful information of upcoming system responses such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. This information on anticipated system responses is also expressed in the form of forecasts that must reliably represent the actual system behavior when it eventually occurs. The first part of this study presents an assessment methodology that can be used to determine the consistency of ensemble forecasts through the use of relative frequency histograms and minimum spanning trees (MST). This methodology is then used to assess a management model's ability to produce reliable ensemble forecasts. It was found that neglecting to account for hydrologic state variables and improperly modeling the finite management horizon decrease ensemble consistency. Several extensions to the existing management model are also developed and evaluated. The second portion of this study involves the management of the uncertainties in reservoir systems. Traditional management models only find management policies that optimize the expected values of system benefits or costs, thereby not allowing operators and stakeholders to explicitly explore issues related to uncertainty and risk management. A technique that can be used to derive management policies that produce desired probabilistic distributions of reservoir system outputs reflecting stakeholder preferences is developed. This technique can be embedded in a user-interactive framework that can be employed to evaluate the trade-offs and build consensus in multi-objective and multi-stakeholder systems. The methods developed in this dissertation are illustrated in case studies of real reservoir systems, including a seven-reservoir, multi-objective system in California's Central Valley.

No description available.