>Magister Scientiae - MSc / The Kars has a well-defined channel along the 62 km stretch from its sources in the Bredasdorp Mountains. After entering the Agulhas plain which has a very low gradient, this river changes into a triangular shaped wetland. This wetland is 7 km in length with no defined channel running through it. The wetland then discharges into another 7 km long channel that joins the Heuningnes River with its mouth at the Indian Ocean. The presence of the wetland causes frequent flooding which affects cultivated lands and a major highway linking towns on the coastal Cape Agulhas area with the rest of the country. Before this study, there was no monitoring of flows along the Kars River including water levels within the wetland. Consequently, the conditions leading to flooding of the wetlands were unknown. This study is aimed at understanding how the combination of local rainfall, Kars River inflow into the wetland, soil characteristics, and the morphology of the wetland influence flooding/inundation. The study monitored river inflows into and outflows from the wetland. A soil survey was conducted within the wetland using the augering method and an infiltrometer to determine soil type and infiltration rates. This was done to assess the hydrological characteristics of the wetland. Using the collected climate data and river flow data, a conceptual model was developed for predicting downstream outflows and possible flood events on a daily timescale. The results indicated that the Kars wetland comprises soil with high silt and clay content, and low infiltration capacity. The wetland causes flood attenuation and diffuse surface flows. Low infiltration rates result in ponding of local rainfall which can contribute to flooding.

La connaissance des dynamiques hydrologiques et du transport chimique associé est indispensable à la mise en place de stratégies de gestion de l’eau et du territoire, mais elle est difficile à consolider pour tous les exutoires de bassins versants porteurs d’enjeux car ils sont souvent « non-jaugés ». A partir d’un hydrogramme observé à l’exutoire d’un bassin jaugé, l'inversion d’un modèle hydrologique à base géomorphologique rend accessible la variable pluie nette en pied de versant. Cette variable indépendante d'échelle est ensuite transposée vers un bassin non-jaugé similaire et reconvoluée en hydrogramme à son exutoire. Cette méthode de "transposition d'hydrogramme", est appliquée pour la première fois en régime pluvio-nival dans 21 bassins Québécois. Le succès de la simulation pour le couple de bassins « jaugé » et « non-jaugé » est conditionné par la similarité hydrologique, soit l’ensemble des caractéristiques assurant un fonctionnement proche entre bassins versants. Nous testons si la composition chimique de l’eau est susceptible de révéler cette similarité à l’aide d’une analyse de type spectral développée sur l’ouest de la France, à l’échelle synoptique. Des groupes de bassins versants se démarquent par une homogénéité / hétérogénéité spatiale des faciès de concentrations, et de l’aire à partir de laquelle est observée la stabilisation de ce faciès. Ceci suggère que la composition chimique des rivières est informative d’un fonctionnement hydrologique similaire. Cette hypothèse est ensuite validée grâce à la transposition avec succès sur six bassins de méso-échelle des hydrogrammes et des relations concentrationdébit (CQ), les meilleurs résultats étant obtenus lorsque le couple respecte une similarité hydrochimique. Enfin, le couplage des hydrogrammes et des relations CQ a permis de prédire efficacement, grâce au principe de similarité, les flux en bassin versant non-jaugé, au pas de temps de 15 minutes. / The knowledge of hydrological and hydrochemical dynamics is essential for policy makers to develop appropriate policies of remediation, but this goal is hard to achieve in « ungauged catchments ». Through the inversion of a geomorphology-based hydrological modelling, the net rainfall entering the stream network is assessed from a gauged catchment. This net rainfall is scale independant and can be convoluted in another (ungauged) catchment. This method is applied for the first time in a pluvio-nival context on 21 catchments from Québec. Success of the simulation depends of the hydrological similarity between gauged and ungauged catchments, which is defined as the ensemble of caracteristics insuring a close functionning. We test how riverwater chemical composition reveals this similarity through a synoptic spectral analysis developped on western France. Groups of catchments are identified by their spatial homogeneity/heterogeneoty of the hydrochemical facies, and the area at which hydrochemical stabilisation occurs. This result suggest that riverwater chemical composition is informative of a hydrological similarity. This hypothesis is successfully tested on six mesoscale catchments, by transposing hydrographs and concentration discharge relatioships (CQ), best transpositions are associated to similar catchments. Finally, the coupling of hydrological simulation to CQ curves allowed the prediction of hydrochemical fluxes in ungauged catchments with a 15 minutes timestep.

Avec le développement des mesures de pluie à hautes résolutions spatiales et temporelles , l’utilisation de modèles hydrométéorologiques distribués est désormais envisagée pour anticiper les phénomènes de crue soudaine sur les petits bassins versants non jaugés. Toutefois les approches développées jusqu’ici se sont généralement concentrées sur l’évaluation des phénomènes hydrologiques, laissant de côté la question de leurs impacts, qui dépendent fortement de la configuration du terrain et des enjeux qui y sont présents. Ce travail de thèse a permis de développer et tester une méthode d’évaluation directe de ces impacts à partir des sorties d’un modèle pluie-débit sur un territoire limité. La démarche mise en oeuvre repose sur un travail préalable d’analyse du territoire permettant d’une part d’évaluer les emprises submergées dans une large gamme de débits par une approche hydraulique simplifiée, puis de construire des relations univoques débit-enjeux pour chaque bief de cours d’eau. Ces relations permettent de produire des cartes d‘enjeux potentiellement touchés ,pouvant être actualisées régulièrement en cours d’événement. Deux études des cas ont permis de réaliser une première évaluation des performances de cette approche, du point de vue de la qualité d’estimation des emprises inondées, et du point de vue des impacts estimés à l’échelle d’un événement grâce à la comparaison avec des données d’assurance. Finalement, ces travaux ont permis de confirmer le potentiel de la méthode, dont les performances semblent en adéquation avec l’objectif visé : obtenir rapidement une première hiérarchisation des impacts occasionnés par les crues soudaines à l’échelle d’un grand territoire. / With the development of rainfall measurements at highspatial and temporal resolutions, the use of distributed hydrometeorological models is now considered to forecast flash floods on small and ungauged catchment areas. Current flashflood monitoring systems generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-flood magnitudes. However they do not assess the potential impacts of flash-flood, which highly depends on the catchment areas configuration and on the importance of potentially affected assets. The purpose of this PhD research work was to develop and test a method which can be used to directly estimate the impacts of flash-floods, based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-run off model. The approach is based on a prior analysis of the study area in order to assess the potential impact of different discharge levels on the flooded areas and to identify from geography database the associated buildings at risk. The aim is to build impact models on specific river reaches, using discharge versus impact graphs. The use of these impact models combined with a rainfall-run off model, has enabled us to compute maps of potential impacts, based on real time assessment of flood events updated every 15 minutes. This method was evaluated on two case studies looking at the accuracy and relevance of estimated impacts for each event – and comparing the outcomes to insurance losses data. This research work has helped to confirm the efficiency of this new combined method, which may become a useful tool to forecast large-scale effects of local impacts of flash-floods.

The conceptual rainfall-runoff model Hysim is used to estimate the flow in ungauged catchments in Scotland by Scottish Water. However, there are non-quantified uncertainties associated with the outcomes of the modelling strategy used. In order to identify and quantify these uncertainties it was necessary to use the framework of proxy-basin validation in order to evaluate the performance of different modelling strategies.   The proxy-basin validation test requires hydrologically analogous catchments for the evaluation of models, a Region Of Influence regionalisation method was used in order group selected catchments by Q95(%MF). Four groups of four catchments were established, which covered Q95(%MF) 5-7%, 7-9%, 9-11% and 11-13%.   The allocation of “donor catchment” and “target catchment” for each Q95(%MF) group was accomplished through discussion with Scottish Water with respect to existing Scottish Water modelled catchments. A single donor catchment and three target catchments were therefore indicated for each group.   Two modelling strategies were developed by the study; the first full transposition method used the entire optimised parameter-set from the donor catchment with the exception of the target catchment’s “catchment area” parameter. The second partial transposition method used the entire optimal parameter-set with the exception of the target catchment’s “interception storage”, “time to peak”, “rooting depth” and “catchment area” parameters.    It was found that the full transposition method had the least uncertainty associated its use for flow estimation when the parameter-set was derived from a donor catchment calibration that was excellent. Contrarily, it was found that the partial transposition model method had the least uncertainty associated with flow estimation for parameter-sets that were derived from a relatively poor donor catchment calibration.   Encouraged by this testing framework, this study has suggested the use of catalogue of donor parameter-sets that can be used to estimate flow for catchments that are hydrologically similar. This strategy of hydrological modelling has been recommended to improve existing Scottish Water Hysim methodology.