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The unifying theme of this dissertation is the empirical analysis of American politics. In particular, I use economic models to provide theoretically sound and empirically valid answers to political questions that are dynamic in nature. The first chapter focuses on the role of the seniority system in the pork barrel politics and the subsequent effect on the quality of Representatives in the U.S. House. The second chapter analyzes candidate positioning in a dynamic environment where there are electoral costs to changing position. The third and final chapter is a test of the role of political parties in time consistency problems when candidates cannot commit to future policies. Collectively, these chapters extend the research of empirical political economy in an important direction, one that accounts for the inherent dynamics of politics. / text

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Utilizing shift/share and economic base analysis, data covering employment, income, and population are analyzed for each of the nine regions of the United States as defined by the Census Bureau. The study covers 1970 through 1984 because widespread redistribution of employment and a shift toward more service-oriented, white collar jobs occurred during this period. This study presents currents trends and recommends ways in which people may better prepare for the future.

The effects of economic conditions upon higher education enrollments between 1966 and 1978 are specified nationally, regionally, and for The University of Arizona. The study indicates that since 1973, about the time when studies began to report on the declining value of a college education, potential students became much more sensitive to the opportunity costs of college attendance. As job opportunities increased, foregone earnings grew correspondingly, and enrollments decreased. Economic reversals were accompanied by enrollment increases. The study provides a perspective for evaluating the relationship between higher education and the economy. As such, it has implications for institutional planning to help set tuition levels, to make enrollment projections, or to aid decisions regarding student aid, demand for faculty and staff, and fund-raising goals.

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The dissertation examines how changes in the race, gender and age composition of poverty over the past twenty years are linked to the unique experiences of particular birth cohorts. Demographer Richard Easterlin argues that generations born between 1944 and 1963 (the 'baby boom') face exceptional labor market competition and economic vulnerability due to their large numbers. Extending this theory, the central question of the dissertation is: Have families headed by the baby boom generation been more likely to be poor in the 1970s and 1980s compared to families headed by generations born prior to the baby boom? The findings indicate that among whites, the answer is clearly 'yes.' For African Americans, the answer appears to be 'no.' Results consistently show that the risk of poverty has been increasing with each successive generation of white family born since 1944. On the other hand, there is no evidence that black families headed by an individual born during the baby boom are more likely to be poor than those headed by previous generations. For both races, however, the most striking finding concerns the generation which was born after the baby boom. White and black families headed by adults born since 1964 are more likely to be poor compared to families headed by the older generations. The cohort effects on poverty are net of family structure, age of the family head, and period. The effects also persist controlling for employment variables which reflect labor market competition. Hypotheses about demographic trends in poverty from 1967 to 1987 are tested using multivariate analyses of a cross-sectional dataset (the Current Population Survey) and a longitudinal dataset (the Panel Study of Income Dynamics). Log-linear analyses of the Current Population Survey decompose the effects of family structure, age, period and cohort on poverty for all families as well as families headed by women. Discrete-time event history analyses of the PSID are used to model poverty among all families in any given year between 1969 and 1987. The dynamics of poverty are further examined in comparisons of nested multinomial logistic regression models of poverty entrances and exits among wives and female-headed families.

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