University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

This dissertation investigates Taiwan's role in the twists and turns in its relationship with China from 1987 to 2004. It employs the methods of both case studies and the VAR (vector autoregression) time-series analysis to assess the impact of the following four factors on Taiwan's actions toward China: (1) the democratic transition in Taiwan, (2) Taiwan's electoral politics, (3) cross-Strait economic exchanges, and (4) U.S. Taiwan Policy. The research conclusions are as follows. First, President Lee Teng-hui's rational calculation in the late 1980s guided him to launch domestic political reforms while continuing former President Chiang Chingkuo's liberalization of Taiwan's China policy. Consequently, Taiwan's democratic transition was accompanied by the appearance of a peaceful policy toward China. Second, in order to win votes from the electorate, which increasingly embraced a Taiwanese identity after the mid-1990s, Taiwanese politicians tended to launch aggressive electoral campaigns against China. Accordingly, domestic elections turned out to be a conducive factor for Taiwan's conflictual actions toward China. Third, politicians' electoral consideration also overrode Taiwanese businessmen's preference for crossStrait stability. As a result, cross-Strait economic interdependence was unable to restrain Taiwan from taking aggressive policies toward China. Fourth, because Taiwanese politicians tended not to give in to U.S. pressures during Taiwan's elections, the U.S. could not successfully stop Taiwan's provocative actions toward China as elections neared in Taiwan. It was only when Taiwanese leaders sought to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations after election seasons ended that the U.S. could induce Taiwan to act cooperatively toward China. / text

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Many authors, critics, and policy makers question the presence of a unified grand strategy with which the United States has striven toward in recent years. This is a topic worthy of pursuit since such a strategy is responsible for identifying how this nation intends to accomplish its goals. This thesis defines what, if any, grand strategy the United States is currently pursuing. It observes several prominent theories of grand strategy, from both the realist and liberal perspectives. This analysis is set in context of historical grand strategy decisions since World War II and uses the framework of Taiwan as the case study. The thesis then compares the three theories, Selective Engagement, Offshore Balancing, and the Liberal Milieu and their recommendations to real-world activities of the United States with a focus primarily on military deployments and national objectives. The study reveals that of the three in question, the Liberal Milieu grand strategy is the only one that is supported by ongoing deployments in the East Asia region as well as by the national rhetoric which define our policy objectives.