This thesis consists of three essays that explore incentives and disincentives in the U.S. social safety net. In the first essay, my coauthors and I measure the size and impact of U.S. marriage taxation. Our marriage tax measure incorporates all major federal and state taxes and transfer programs. The measure is calculated as the expected percentage loss in lifetime spending from marriage, controlling for partner choice. We find an average marriage tax of 2.69 percent that is substantially higher for low-income individuals. Exploiting state-level variation, we find that the marriage taxes strongly disincentivize marriage. Among females with children, a one percentage point increase in the marriage tax rate decreases the probability of marrying by 3.69 percentage points. The second essay evaluates the effects of free pre-kindergarten (Pre-K) programs on maternal labor force participation (LFP). Pre-K rules vary across U.S. states, and most states have income eligibility requirements. To estimate the causal effects of access to Pre-K on labor supply, we examine the change in the LFP of mothers whose child becomes age-eligible for Pre-K controlling for individual factors. We find that access to Pre-K increases overall maternal LFP by 2.3 percentage points. However, the effect is significant only for mothers with certain demographic characteristics. Our results are robust across a series of placebo tests and alternative specifications and sample restrictions. In the third essay I estimate how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) changed the returns to work and affected labor supply decisions. First, I identify three natural experiments where the ACA changed work incentives. I find that depending on the experiment and affected population, the ACA changed weekly hours worked by between -3 and +2. Next, I use an exogenous shock to effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs) introduced by the ACA as an instrument to estimate the overall labor supply elasticity. I find it to be 0.1. Using this elasticity, I estimate the aggregate effect of the ACA on work effort. I find that, in the aggregate, the ACA did not affect US labor supply. However, for some groups the effect was economically and statistically significant.

The age-cutoff regression discontinuity design (RDD) has emerged as one of the most rigorous quasi-experimental approaches to determining program effects of prekindergarten on literacy and numeracy outcomes for children at kindergarten entry. However, few pre-K meta-analyses have focused attention on validity threats. The current random-effects meta-regression tests the moderating effects of prominent threats to validity, selection bias and sensitivity, on impact estimates generated from age-cutoff regression discontinuity studies from large-scale programs. Results from averaging dependent standardized mean difference effects suggested small positive moderating effects of total attrition and robust 3-month bandwidths on reading effects, but not on math. However, these results were not statistically significant. In contrast, results generated from robust variance estimation yielded a small statistically significant association between total attrition and math effects. These mixed results may warrant further research on prekindergarten evaluation methodology, evaluation estimation methods, and the totality of evidence used to inform policy.

Thesis advisor: ROWELL S. MELNICK / This issue was brought to light when the Honorable Gina M. Raimondo left the governorship behind and assumed office on March 3, 2021, to serve as the 40th U.S. Secretary of Commerce. Many asked, what would become of the initiatives she championed during her tenure? Rhode Island Universal Pre-Kindergarten (RI-UPK) was one of her signature policy goals and this research confirms the reasons behind the push, the progress made, and the challenges ahead. This thesis further highlights how the governorship plays a central role in effecting and steering education policy. Rhode Island’s state funded Pre-K has been steadily adding more seats and even before Raimondo, it has maintained the highest quality benchmarks for over a decade according to the National Institute for Early Education Research (NIEER). Therefore, the smallest state in the nation demonstrates a bright spot in Early Childhood Education (ECE) within an otherwise regionally underperforming public school system. This is a dichotomy that beckons in-depth analysis and further explanation. I argue that RI UPK is a model for the rest of the country to follow based on its selection as the sole test site leading up to the 2020 Census. According to US Census data collectors, Rhode Island is a microcosm of the entire country, reflective of future demographic trends. Hence, a policy implementation strategy that proves either successful or unsuccessful offers valuable insights that are widely applicable across numerous states. This thesis also explains and clarifies some contradictions in the larger debate over UPK implementation as well as chronically examining its evolution in RI. After conducting an empirical comparison and evaluation of case studies, state reports, and scholarly articles, I assert that RI UPK has the potential to serve as a national model. Analyzing a segment of Madam Secretary Raimondo’s education legacy reveals that Rhode Island not only excels as a leader in providing consistent Early Childhood Education but also possesses unique characteristics that position it at the forefront of the nationwide Universal Pre-K (UPK) discussion. / Thesis (MA) — Boston College, 2024. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Political Science.

State-funded voluntary pre-K programs have grown steadily over the past decade and now enroll 1.3 million children (Barnett, Carolan, Fitzgerald, J., & Squires, 2012). While the overall trend has been to increase participation in state funded Pre-K, access in most states is targeted to select groups of at-risk 4-year-olds. Unfortunately, targeted programs for disadvantaged children tend to underserve their targeted populations with respect to availability and quality (Gelbach & Pritchett, 2002). In light of this, Pre-K advocates have begun pushing for universal Pre-K. However, only six states offer universal-prekindergarten, and with varying degrees of success. In this environment of modest state funding for Pre-K, the state of Oklahoma has managed to rise to the forefront of the universal Pre-K movement. That a high-quality Pre-K system exists in a conservative state is a very curious case and provides an opportunity for a thorough examination of the political processes. This study seeks not only to explain the development and passage of universal Pre-K in Oklahoma, but to also understand what lessons can be taken from a historical analysis of this issue for contemporary education policy. / text