Cardiovascular disease remains the leading causing of death worldwide. American Indians experience an elevated prevelance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic metal exposures. Determining the impact of metal exposures on CVD can inform prevention and exposure reduction strategies. This dissertation will advance environmental monitoring and biological monitoring of lead, uranium, and selenium exposures using both established biomarkers and novel epigenetic biomarkers to determine the associations of metals with CVD, leveraging the Strong Heart Study (SHS), a prospective cohort of CVD and its risk factors among American Indian adults from tribes and communities in Arizona, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and South Dakota. In Chapter 1, we discuss lead, uranium, and selenium, sources of exposure, and relevance to cardiovascular disease. This includes an overview of metal toxicokinetics and how we can assess these contaminants in both established biomarkers, including blood and urine, as well as in epigenetic biomarkers. In Chapter 2, we estimated urinary uranium concentrations from data on uranium in water among Strong Heart Family Study participants. These estimates were derived from relationships between urinary uranium and water uranium assessed in Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS) participants (n=1,356). Predictions were made using generalized linear models and included demographic and clinical participant characteristics in addition to other metal contaminants measured in water and urine. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction model was 1.01, and predicted urine uranium levels were comparable (median: 0.04 μg/g creatinine, 25th-75th: 0.02-0.08 μg/g creatinine) to urine uranium measured in the SHFS (0.04 μg/g creatinine, 0.02-0.07 μg/g creatinine). These findings emphasize the contribution of uranium in water to urine uranium (reflecting internal dose), and demonstrate the relevance of estimating metal contaminants in urine for the SHS to inform relationships with health effects. In Chapter 3, we evaluated whether urinary uranium concentrations were associated with measures of cardiac geometry and functioning among 1,332 American Indian youth and young adults from the SHFS. Transthoracic echocardiography and blood pressure was assessed at baseline (2001-2003) and a follow-up visit (2006-2009). We estimated mean differences in measures of cardiac geometry and functioning at baseline and follow-up using linear mixed effect models with random intercept and slope over time. In fully adjusted models, a log-doubling of urinary uranium was positively associated with left ventricular (LV) mass index (mean difference: 0.49 g/m2, 95% CI: 0.07-0.92 g/m2), left atrial systolic diameter (0.02 cm, 0.01-0.03 cm), and stroke volume (0.66 mL, 0.25-1.08 mL) at baseline. At follow-up, uranium was associated with increases in left atrial diameter (0.02 cm, 0.01-0.03 cm), pulse pressure (0.28 mmHg, 0.05-0.52 mmHg), and incident LV hypertrophy (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.48). These findings support the need to determine the potential long-term clinical and subclinical cardiovascular effects of chronic uranium exposure in the general population, and the need for future strategies to reduce exposure. In Chapter 4, we evaluated if blood lead was associated with CVD incidence and mortality in 1,818 adult American Indian participants. This study estimated the risk of incident CVD and CVD deaths in models adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular risk factors. Blood lead levels in American Indian adults were associated with increased risk of CVD and coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and mortality. The hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of mortality per change across the 80th-20th quantiles in blood lead was 1.15 (1.02-1.30) for CVD overall and 1.22 (1.08-1.37) for CHD. The corresponding HR was 1.11 (1.01-1.22) for incident CVD and 1.12 (1.00-1.25) for incident CHD. These findings contribute to the evidence of lead as a CVD risk factor at low levels and highlight the importance of further reducing lead exposure in communities across the United States, including American Indian communities. In Chapter 5, we leveraged novel epigenetic biomarkers of lead exposure to investigate their association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality among 2,231 participants of the Strong Heart Study. Blood DNA methylation was measured using the Illumina MethylationEPIC BeadChip at baseline (1989-1991) and epigenetic biomarkers of lead levels in blood, patella, and tibia were estimated using previously developed biomarkers of DNA methylation at specific CpG sites. In adjusted models, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of CVD mortality per doubling increase in lead epigenetic biomarkers were 1.42 (1.07-1.87) for tibia lead, 1.22 (0.93-1.60) for patella lead, and 1.57 (1.16-2.11) for blood lead. The corresponding HRs for incident CVD were 0.99 (0.83-1.19), 1.07 (0.89-1.29), and 1.06 (0.87-1.30). The association between the tibia lead epigenetic biomarker and CVD mortality was modified by sex (interaction p-value: 0.014), with men at increased risk (HR: 1.42, 95% CI:1.17-1.72) compared to women (HR: 1.04, 95% CI:0.89-1.22). These findings support that epigenetic biomarkers of lead exposure may capture some of the disease risk associated with lead exposure. In Chapter 6, we investigated the association between urinary selenium levels and DNA methylation (DNAm) among 1,357 participants free of CVD and diabetes in the SHS. Selenium concentrations were measured in urine (collected in 1989-1991) using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. DNAm in whole blood was measured cross-sectionally using the Illumina Methylation EPIC BeadChip (850K) Array. We used epigenome-wide robust linear regressions and elastic net to identify differentially methylated CpG sites associated with urinary selenium levels. Across 788,368 CpG sites, five differentially methylated positions (DMP) (cg00163554, cg18212762, cg25194720, cg11270656, cg00886293) were significantly associated with Se in linear regressions after accounting for multiple comparisons (false discovery rate p-value: 0.10). The top associated DMP (cg00163554) was annotated to the Disco Interacting Protein 2 Homolog C (DIP2C) gene, which relates to transcription factor binding. Future analyses should explore these relationships prospectively and investigate the potential role of differentially methylated sites with disease endpoints. In Chapter 7, we evaluated if declines in blood lead were associated with changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure in adult American Indian participants from the SHFS (n=285). Using generalized estimating equations, a significant non-linear association between declines in blood lead and declines in systolic blood pressure was detected, with significant linear associations where blood lead decline was 1 µg/L or higher. These findings suggest the need to further study the cardiovascular impacts of reducing lead exposures and the importance of lead exposure prevention. In conclusion, we find that established biomarkers of metal exposure reflecting internal dose such as blood and urine, as well as epigenetic biomarkers of metals exposures, were associated with subclinical CVD and CVD incidence and mortality. Findings concerning blood lead emphasize that low levels of lead remain relevant for CVD, and declines in blood lead even when small (1.0-10.0 µg/L), were associated with reductions in systolic blood pressure. Novelly, we present that urinary uranium levels were adversely associated with measures of cardiac geometry and left ventricular functioning among American Indian adults, and that future attention must be paid to investigating associations with subclinical disease. We also find utility in using epigenetic biomarkers to capture CVD risk, as tibia and blood epigenetic biomarkers of lead, were associated with increased risk of CVD mortality, and urinary selenium was associated with distinct changes in DNAm. Although further work must further validate these epigenetic biomarkers in different populations, future work must continue to investigate these epigenetic biomarkers given their potential to capture CVD risk.

Heart Failure is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. The identification of risk factors of heart failure in healthy individuals is key to improve disease prevention and reduce mortality. Metals exposures are recently established cardiovascular disease risk factors, but their association with heart failure remains understudied and prospective studies across diverse populations are needed. Metals are widespread in the environment, some of the sources of exposure include drinking water, air, and soil contamination. Some population groups, particularly American Indian, Hispanic/Latino, and Black communities in the United States are exposed to higher levels of environmental metals as a result of sociodemographic and structural factors including structural racism. These population groups suffer a higher burden of heart failure compared to White populations. Importantly, the burden of heart failure in American Indian communities in the United States, a population group with high rates of diabetes, hypertension, and other cardiovascular disease risk factors, is underreported, and key risk factors of heart failure in these population groups remain understudied. This dissertation characterized relevant risk factors of heart failure in American Indian participants from the Strong Heart Study. Towards the goal of identifying novel preventable cardiovascular disease risk factors, it comprehensively assessed the sources of exposure and biomarkers for multiple non-essential and essential metals with a focus on characterizing drivers of disparities in drinking water metal concentrations. Then, it evaluated the role of exposure to multiple metals (individually and as a mixture) on the risk of heart failure and overall cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, leveraging three geographically and racially and ethnically diverse population-based cohorts: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), the Strong Heart Study (SHS), and the Hortega cohort. Last, it identified and evaluated new opportunities for the mitigation of metal toxicity through nutritional interventions. Chapter 1 provides background information about heart failure epidemiology and pathophysiology, the role of environmental metals on cardiovascular disease, and introduces the dissertation framework necessary to contextualize the work included in this dissertation. Chapter 2 estimated the incidence of heart failure in the SHS, a large epidemiological cohort of American Indian adults from Arizona, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and South Dakota, followed from 1989-1991 through 2019. A parsimonious heart failure-risk prediction equation that accounts for relevant cardiovascular risk factors affecting American Indian communities was developed. The incidence rate of heart failure was 9.5 per 1,000 person-years, with higher rates across participants with diabetes, hypertension, and albuminuria. Significant predictors for heart failure risk at 5 and 10 years included age, smoking, albuminuria, and previous myocardial infarction. Diabetes diagnosis and higher levels of HbA1c were significant predictors of risk at 10 and 28 years. Models achieved a high discrimination performance (C-index (95%CI): 0.81 (0.76, 0.84) at 5 years, 0.78 (0.75, 0.81) at 10 years, and 0.77 (0.74, 0.78) up to 28 years), and some associations varied across HF subtypes. Chapter 3 developed a comprehensive overview of the main sources and routes of exposure, biotransformation, and biomarkers of exposure and internal dose for 12 metals/metalloids, including 8 non-essential elements (arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, mercury, nickel, tin, uranium) and 4 essential elements (manganese, molybdenum, selenium, and zinc), providing a set of recommendations for the use and interpretation of metal biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Chapter 4 conducted the first nationwide geospatial analysis identifying racial/ethnic inequalities in arsenic and uranium concentrations in public drinking water across the conterminous United States using geospatial models. The association between county-level racial/ethnic composition and public water arsenic and uranium concentrations (2000-2011)was assessed. Higher proportions of Hispanic/Latino and American Indian/Alaskan Native residents were associated with 6% (95% CI: 4-8%), and 7% (3-11%) higher levels of arsenic, and 17% (13-22%), and 2% (-4-8%), higher levels of uranium, respectively, in public drinking water, after accounting for relevant social and geological indicators. Higher county-level proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents were associated with higher arsenic and uranium in the Southwest, where concentrations of these contaminants are high. These findings identified the key role of structural racism as driver of drinking water metal concentrations inequalities. Chapter 5 evaluated the prospective association between urinary metal levels, a established biomarker of internal dose, and incident heart failure across three geographically and ethnically/racially diverse cohorts: MESA and SHS in the United States, and the Hortega Study in Spain. These findings consistently identified significant associations across cohorts for cadmium (pooled hazard ratio: 1.15 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.24), tungsten (1.07 (1.02, 1.12)), copper (1.31 (1.18, 1.45)), molybdenum (1.13 (1.05, 1.22)), and zinc (1.22 (1.14, 1.32))). Higher levels of urinary metals analyzed as a mixture were significantly associated with increased incident heart failure risk in MESA and SHS, and non-significantly increased in the Hortega Study, which has a smaller number of events. Chapter 6 assessed the prospective association of urinary metals with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in MESA, including a total of 6,599 participants at baseline (2000-2001), followed through 2019. Significant associations between higher levels of urinary cadmium, tungsten, uranium, cobalt, copper, and zinc, and higher risk of CVD and all-cause mortality were identified. A positive linear dose-response was identified for cadmium and copper with both endpoints. The adjusted HRs (95%CI) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in the mixture of these six urinary metals and the correspondent 10-year survival probability difference (95% CI) were 1.29 (1.11, 1.56), and -1.1% (-2.0, -0.05) for incident CVD and 1.66 (1.47, 1.91), and -2.0% (-2.6, -1.5) for all-cause mortality. Chapter 7 investigated the effects of a nutritional intervention with folic acid (FA) and B12 supplementation on arsenic methylation in children exposed to high levels of drinking water arsenic in Bangladesh. The randomized controlled trial included a total of 240 children 8-11 years old. Compared to placebo, the supplementation group experienced a significant increase in the concentration of blood DMA, a non-toxic arsenic metabolite, by 14.0% (95%CI: 5.0, 25.0) and blood secondary methylation index (DMAs/MMAs) by 0.19 (95%CI: 0.09, 0.35). Similarly, there was a 1.62% (95%CI: 0.43, 2.83) significantly higher urinary %DMAs and -1.10% (CI: -1.73, -0.48) significantly lower urinary %MMAs compared to placebo group after 1 week. These results confirmed that FA+B12 supplementation increases arsenic methylation in children as reflected by decreased MMAs and increased DMAs in blood and urine. Altogether, the findings presented in this dissertation consistently identify the role of urinary metals as robust risk factors of heart failure, overall cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality across diverse populations. With consistent findings across multiple assessments of the dose response relationship and mixture approaches. Additionally, this dissertation work contributes to address disparities in environmental exposures and heart failure burden, respectively, by characterizing the impact of structural racism drinking water metal exposures disparities and identifying relevant risk factors of heart failure in American Indian populations who are historically underrepresented in epidemiological cohorts. Last, this dissertation identifies the role of folic acid and B12 supplementation to reduce arsenic toxicity in children. These findings have direct clinical and policy implications, as they can inform the development of novel clinical guidelines to incorporate environmental factors in clinical risk prediction, and they can inform drinking water regulation and infrastructure efforts to support at risk communities and inform population-level nutritional recommendations and policies.