Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Extreme Heat Events are the leading cause of weather-related mortalities in the continental United States. Recent publications have suggested that vulnerability to extreme heat is impacted by variations in environmental and socioeconomic conditions, even across small spatial units. This study evaluated the usefulness of socioeconomic variables and satellite-derived environmental measurements as predictors of heat-related vulnerability during the July 14-17, 1995 heat wave in Chicago, IL. Geospatial analysis and statistical processes were implemented to identify and rank characteristics of vulnerable populations. Results suggest population density, educational attainment, age, and financial indicators are among the best predictors of heat vulnerability. Proximity to and intensity of Urban Heat Islands also appears to influence neighborhood vulnerability levels. Identification and mapping of vulnerability variables can distinguish locations of increased vulnerability during extreme weather conditions. These vulnerability maps could be utilized by city officials to plan and implement aid programs to specific high risk neighborhoods before an extreme heat event, and resulting health implications, occur. Continued study and implementation of these variables could also assist in identifying vulnerable populations in other urban environments, improve utilization of location-specific heat warning systems and impact new building policies to decrease vulnerability variables across the country.

published_or_final_version / Mechanical Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Architecture / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

abstract / Architecture / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Urban heat island (UHI) is a region of increased air temperature in the canopy layer and boundary layer of the atmosphere above the town or industrial agglomeration in comparison with rural surroundings. The difference in temperature increases with the size of the city. This study describes the dependence of the intensity UHI Central European cities on their size and position of their weather station. It uses a multiple linear regression model. The dependent variable Y entering the model (data from 40 cities) are UHImean and UHImax. They are calculated as difference in air temperature between the urban and the relevant rural weather station. The average intensity of the urban heat island (UHImean) is the average value of the UHI of all available data in the analyzed period (hourly measurements of air temperature [řC] for the years 1994-2012). The data are only taken from night times records between 21:00 and 4:00 UTC and on days with the average total cloud cover at the city weather station less than 0,5. The maximum intensity of the urban heat island (UHImax) is the average maximum value of the UHI per night. The data are taken under the same conditions as in the case of UHImean. Independent variables X are the size of built-up area (X1) and the position of the weather station calculated using the...

O potencial aumento da atividade convectiva e da severidade das tempestades proporcionada pela ilha de calor urbana das grandes cidades, já apontado por diversos autores, é verificado através de testes com o modelo BRAMS, em que o esquema TEB é ativado e desativado para dois casos de tempestade. Em seguida, cenários de crescimento da mancha urbana para o ano de 2030 e de aumento da área com construções altas foram utilizados para avaliar o possível aumento na quantidade de precipitação, nos índices de tempo severo e, consequentemente, na severidade das tempestades que podem ocorrer na região. Com os métodos de planejamento fatorial e separação de fatores, verificou-se que o aumento da mancha urbana é capaz de aumentar a quantidade de chuva sobre a RMSP, indicando que a mudança do uso do solo de rural para o urbano é determinante para este aumento. O aumento da área com construções altas possui uma tendência para causar supressão da chuva. O aumento da mancha urbana é o principal fator gerador de instabilidade e cisalhamento entre os ensaios. O fator de aumento da urbanização vertical causa diferentes impactos entre os dois casos de tempestade, um com aumento e outro com redução da instabilidade. Em ambos os casos a verticalização causa redução do cisalhamento. A interação entre os dois fatores, urbanização horizontal e vertical, gera um aumento da precipitação e um deslocamento maior da tempestade sobre a RMSP, em relação ao cenário atual, porém menor do que ocorreria para o cenário com apenas aumento da mancha urbana. / The potential increase in convective activity and severity, caused by urban heat island effect, is verified with tests using BRAMS model, between cases with and without TEB scheme for two storm cases. Scenarios of future urban area and increase of high buildings area was made to evaluate changes in rainfall, convective parameters, and consequently, in severe weather probability for the study region. Using factorial planning and factor separation methods, it was found that the urban area growth is capable to increase the amount of precipitation, mainly due to the land use change from rural to urban. In the scenario of building heights increasing, it was found a tendency for rainfall suppress. The urban area growth is the major factor contributing to increase atmospheric instability and wind shear. Vertical urban growth causes different impacts between two storm cases, one with an increase and other with a decrease in instability. In both cases there were reductions in wind shear. The interaction between two factors increases the amount of precipitation and the displacement of the storm over MASP, in relation to the current scenario, but less than would occur for the scenario with only urban area growth.

Com a crescente evolução da mancha urbana das cidades, o ser humano intensificou o seu uso sobre o espaço, ocasionando certas conseqüências socioambientais, intensificadas através de fenômenos climáticos, tais como: enchentes, a piora da qualidade do ar e do aumento da temperatura nas cidades, comparada a sua área entorno. Este último, também é conhecido como Ilha de calor. A área de estudo contemplada nesta pesquisa se justificativa pelo fato de apresentar: a) um crescimento acelerado da população urbana a partir de meados da década de 1970; b) um Intenso processo de verticalização iniciado na década de 1980 e c) por conseguinte a expansão da malha urbana da cidade, que convive com uma arborização muito reduzida. A partir destes argumentos, o presente trabalho procurou investigar a hipótese da constituição de um clima urbano associado ao crescimento da cidade sede do município de Viçosa. Para isto, primeiramente, analisou-se a série histórica da estação climatológica de Viçosa entre 1968 e 2006. E, em seguida, utilizou-se da técnica de transetos móveis, com a utilização de um termohigrômetro digital de leitura direta (MINIPA-MT-241), envolvido em tubo PVC recoberto por papel alumínio e colocado do lado de fora do carro há uma altura de aproximadamente 2,0m de altura. Este procedimento foi realizado em três escalas de análise: campocidade, área urbana e o centro da cidade e estações sazonais distintas. Depois de realizados os experimentos e analisado os registros históricos de temperatura do ar, pode-se dizer que Viçosa ainda não constitui um clima urbano, muito embora, possa ter sido possível identificar ilhas de calor na cidade, principalmente à noite. / With the increasing development of urban stain of cities, the human being intensified its use on the area, causing certain social consequences, intensified by climatic phenomena, such as flooding, the worsening air quality and increasing the temperature in cities compared to its surrounding area. The latter is also known as heat island. The study area included in this search was justified because the present: a) an accelerated growth of urban population from the mid-1970s, b) a Intensy verticalisation process started in the 1980s and c) therefore the expansion of urban network of the city, living with a very limited stock. From these arguments, this study sought to investigate the possibility of setting up a climate associated with the urban growth of the city headquarters of the municipality of Viçosa. For this, first analyzes the historical series of the climatological station of Viçosa between 1968 and 2006. And then it was used the technique of mobile transects, using a digital direct reading termohigrômetro (MINIPA-MT-241), involved in PVC pipe covered by aluminum foil and placed outside the car there is a height of approximately 2.0 m high. This procedure was performed on three scales of analysis: country-city, urban area and the city center and seasonal distinct seasons. After the experiments performed and analyzed the historical records of air temperature, we can say that Viçosa still not an urban environment, though, might have been possible to identify islands of heat in the city, mainly at night.

O padrão de desenvolvimento das cidades brasileiras nas últimas décadas, com acelerada urbanização, tem mostrado resultados prejudiciais sobre a forma das cidades, a qualidade de vida nelas e o consumo dos recursos naturais. Para promover a sustentabilidade no planejamento urbano é importante adequar o ambiente construído ao clima local, permitindo ao homem viver em conforto e reduzir o consumo dos recursos naturais. Uma das maneiras apontadas para melhorar a qualidade das cidades e o conforto térmico nelas é através da criação de parques verdes. Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a influência dos parques verdes no conforto térmico urbano, através de estudo de caso em Porto Alegre/RS. A pesquisa parte da revisão bibliográfica, para explicar como as áreas verdes podem contribuir para o conforto térmico urbano. Para o estudo de caso foi analisada a influência dos parques Farroupilha, Moinhos de Vento e Germânia nos seus entornos, através de medições in loco de temperatura e umidade do ar, principais variáveis de conforto térmico, e de análises de dados de sensoriamento remoto. Utilizando índices que consideram apenas estas duas variáveis, um com base da carta de Givoni e outro no cálculo da Temperatura Efetiva, não foi possível observar correlação entre o conforto térmico e a presença e proximidade dos parques. Entretanto, analisando as variáveis, é possível observar que os parques aumentaram entre 3,54 e 13,94% a umidade relativa do ar e reduziram a temperatura do ar em até 2,3°C. As análises de sensoriamento remoto vão ao encontro destes resultados, chegando 8,6°C as diferenças de temperaturas de superfície obtidas no interior e no entorno dos parques. Os três parques estudados influenciaram nas variáveis de conforto nos seus entornos, sendo o efeito de oásis mais significativo nos parques maiores e com áreas mais arborizadas e superfícies de água. Assim sendo, até mesmo os parques menores contribuem para a redução das ilhas de calor urbano, evitando que as temperaturas dos centros das cidades aumentem ainda mais. / The pattern of development of Brazilian cities in recent decades, with rapid urbanization, have shown harmful results on the morphology of the cities, the quality of life in them and the consumption of natural resources. To promote sustainability in urban planning it is important to adapt the built environment to the local climate, allowing to live in comfort and to reduce the consumption of natural resources. One of the ways aimed at improving the quality of cities and the thermal comfort in them is by creating green parks. This work aims to analyze the influence of green parks in the urban thermal comfort a case study in Porto Alegre / RS. The study of the literature review can explain how green areas can contribute to the urban thermal comfort. For the case study we analyzed the influence of three parks (Farroupilha, Moinhos de Vento and Germânia) with their surroundings by measurements, in situ, of temperature and humidity, the main variables of thermal comfort, and remote sensing data analysis. Using indexes treating only these two variables, one based on the chart of Givoni and the other in the calculation of Effective Temperature, was not observed correlation between thermal comfort and the presence and proximity of the parks. However, analyzing the variables we can observe that the parks have increased of relative air humidity between 3.54 and 13.94% and reduced air temperature of 2.32°C. Remote sensing analysis are in agreement with these results, reaching 8.56°C differences in surface temperatures obtained inside and around the parks. The three parks studied influenced variables the comfort of in their surroundings, with the oasis effect very significant on the largest parks and more wooded areas and water surfaces. Even the smallest parks contribute to the reduction of urban heat islands, preventing temperatures from urban centers to increase further.

Increased rates of mortality and morbidity due to summertime heat are a significant problem in New York City (NYC) and for many cities around the world, and are expected to increase with a warming climate. An ecologic design was used to evaluate the association between neighborhood scale characteristics (socioeconomic/demographic, the built and biophysical environment, health status and risk behaviors) and senior citizen's mortality rates during heat events in New York City. As a measure of relative vulnerability to heat, this analysis used the natural cause mortality rate ratio among those aged 65+ (MRR65+), comparing extremely hot days (maximum heat index 100+) to other warm season days. Data were pooled across the years 1997-2006. The relationship between intra-urban microclimates and the risk of heat-related mortality was assessed through Landsat-derived surface temperatures averaged to the neighborhood scale. Excess mortality during heat event days was unevenly distributed in NYC's Community Districts and United Hospital Fund (UHF) areas during 1997-2006, with higher rates of excess deaths in parts of southwestern Bronx, northern Manhattan, central Brooklyn and the eastern side of midtown Manhattan. Some areas, including parts of northern Staten Island, northern and southeastern Queens, and the Upper West Side of Manhattan had lower rates of mortality on heat alert days during this time period (MRR65+ < 1.0) compared to the average summer season day. Significant positive associations were found between heat-mortality rates and characteristics at the neighborhood level: poor housing conditions, poverty, impervious land cover, senior's hypertension and the surface temperatures aggregated to the UHF area level during the warm season. A negative association between area-based home-ownership rates and the mortality rate ratio was the strongest correlation found in the study. Several measures of housing quality were significantly correlated with the MRR65+, including rates of dilapidated buildings and property tax delinquencies, suggesting that the quality of senior's housing is a population-level risk factor for premature heat-associated mortality. Senior's air condition access was negatively correlated with the mortality rate ratio. The lowest-income areas had a trend towards higher heat-associated mortality rates. Low-income areas also had a trend towards hotter surface temperatures and a lower degree of air conditioning access for senior citizens. The hottest Districts and UHF-areas generally had higher mortality rate ratios; however, stratification by poverty rates and income levels showed this trend existed for the low-income/higher poverty neighborhoods, but not for high-income/low poverty areas. Percent Black/African American and percent poverty by UHF-area were strong negative predictors of senior's air conditioning access in multivariate regression. In multivariate models, NYC's surface urban heat island is strongly associated with impervious cover and poverty rates. There is a trend for an increasing mortality rate ratio for areas with the least proportion of White population. These findings suggest that redistributive policies to improve the housing conditions of elderly residents could play a role in reducing heat-related mortality in New York City, although these policies are not yet explicitly considered as part of climate adaptive planning. Urban heat island mitigation programs that address economic disparities and incorporate local knowledge on neighborhood characteristics may be the most effective in reducing the health impacts of climate extremes and variability. Towards that end, a community-based adaptation planning process may help address the social justice dimension of the impacts of extreme events and climate change in New York City while increasing the effectiveness of adaptive programs and policies.

O presente trabalho teve por objetivo caracterizar as circulações locais que se formam na região central do Chile (RCC). Uma análise sinótica para o ano 2004 mostrou que durante o verão a condição de tempo dominante foi de céus claros associados à presença do Anticiclone Subtropical do Pacífico Sul com o deslocamento de baixas pressões litoral que mudam o regime de ventos. Dados da Armada do Chile mostraram que, no litoral da Região de Valparaíso, a amplitude anual de temperatura é de aproximadamente de 8 ºC. Os extremos de temperatura ocorrem entre as 09 e 12 UTC para as mínimas e 18 e 21 UTC para as máximas. O vento apresenta um ciclo anual com domínio da componente oeste no verão e componente leste no inverno. Maiores intensidades estão associadas à passagem de sistemas frontais no inverno. A brisa marítima é melhor caracterizada nos valores médios horários do vento no período de verão, sendo observada a partir das 12 UTC, com ventos de maior intensidade entre 18 e 21 UTC. A brisa terrestre é observada a partir das 00 UTC com ventos de menor intensidade que na brisa marítima. Dados da CONAMA-RM mostraram um ciclo diurno de temperatura bem definido na Região Metropolitana de Santiago com as temperaturas mínimas ocorrendo entre 06 e 09 HL e valores máximos entre 14 e 16 HL. Ao agrupar as estações localizadas dentro e fora dos limites urbanos foi possível identificar o efeito da ilha de calor (IC). Para o período de verão a IC apresentou intensidades positivas e no inverno uma maior freqüência de valores negativos. A intensidade do vento sofre também os efeitos da cidade, observando-se uma redução desta nas estações que se localizam no centro da Grande Santiago. Valores mínimos de intensidade do vento por períodos prolongados levaram a um incremento nas concentrações de material particulado. A diminuição nas concentrações está associada à passagem de frentes e ao incremento na intensidade do vento. Os efeitos da cidade na atmosfera foram estudados com mais detalhamento mediante a utilização do BRAMS. A análise sinótica mostrou uma região de vento fraco e baixo gradiente barométrico na região de estudo para a maior parte do período. Foi possível identificar a brisa marítima com maior intensidade do vento entre 18 e 19 UTC. A brisa terrestre foi identificada na maior parte das noites, com intensidade de vento maior próximo das 04 UTC. As cidades localizadas na RCC apresentam a tendência de resfriar o ar próximo da superfície e modificam a intensidade do vento e os padrões de umidade relativa. Embora os efeitos das cidades tenham sido encontrados, os efeitos da topografia no escoamento são ainda mais importantes, gerando circulações sobre a região central do Chile que não são completamente modificadas pela presença das cidades. / The objective of this work was to characterize the local circulations that are generated in the Central Chile (CC) region. A synoptic analyze for 2004 show that clear sky weather conditions associated to the Subtropical Anticyclone of South Pacific (SASP) was dominant during the summer. Coastal lows moving from north to CC interacts with SASP changing the wind regime. Meteorological data from Armada do Chile showed that on the coast of Valparaíso, the annual temperature amplitude was approximately 8 ºC. Temperature extremes occur between 09 and 12 UTC for minimum and 18 and 21 UTC for maximum values. The wind showed an annual cycle, with dominant direction to west during summer, while in wintertime, wind dominant direction is to the east. Higher values of wind speed are associated with frontal passages during winter. The sea breeze was better seen in the wind mean hourly values between 12 UTC and 21 UTC with higher wind speeds at 18 UTC. Land breeze was observed around 00 UTC, with lower wind speeds than in the sea breeze case. Meteorological data form CONAMA-RM showed a well defined diurnal cycle of temperature in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago with minimum temperatures occurring between 06 and 09 LT and maximum values between 14 and 16 LT. The urban heat island effect was seen grouping urban and non urban meteorological stations. The urban heat island is, in general, positive during the summer but, during the winter, negative values of intensity are frequent. The wind speed also shows the urban effects, with a wind speed decrease in the meteorological station inside the city. Long periods of low wind speed are associated with an increase in the particulate matter concentrations. The decrease in these concentrations is associated with the passage of frontal systems, as well as wind speed increase. The city effects on the atmosphere were studied in more details through the use of BRAMS. The synoptic analysis showed a weak wind region and low pressure gradient in the study region for most part of the period. The sea breeze was identified with higher wind speeds between 18 and 19 UTC. The land breeze was identified in the most part of the nights, with higher wind speeds near 04 UTC. The cities situated in CC have a tendency to cool down the air near to the surface and modify the wind speed and relative humidity patterns. Although the effects of the cities have been found, the topography effects on the wind flow are even more important, generating circulations over Central Chile that are not completely modified by the presence of the cities.