The purpose of the research is to study the voting behavior during the electional campaign of Taitung County Mayor in 2005.There were two telephone surveys conducted by the Opinion Poll Institute,Social Science School,Chung Shan University,during the campaign,and the analysis is based on four factors------ ethnic group,political support,performance of the county mayor and issue of the campaign. The study suggests that the support for Mr.Wu jiunn-lih by pan-blue supporters tended to be higher than that by neutral supporters before or after the election. Especially,after the election the support for Mr.Wu took a better lead over the competitor.

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This research addresses the determinants of mass participation by developing a model of how the racial environment influences mass participation in the United States. Prior literature on this research question presents two competing expectations. The power-threat hypothesis predicts that a larger size of different racial groups in local areas increases citizen participation because of more intensive interracial con- flicts, while the relational goods hypothesis predicts that a larger size of different racial groups decreases participation because of less frequent interaction with other in-group members. Both hypotheses, however, are derived from rather weak theoretical expectations, and neither is consistently supported in empirical analyses. This research offers a solution to this puzzle by arguing that economic and political characteristics of local areas determine how the racial composition influences mass participation. Local economic and political competition is expected to structure the nature of interracial and intraracial relations and therefore influence the utility calculation associated with political participation. I hypothesize that the power-threat effect on citizen participation is observed only when the degree of economic or political competition is high, while the relational goods effect is observed only when the degree of economic or political competition is low. Empirical analysis using Verba, Schlozman, and Brady’s Citizen Participation Study offers supportive evidence for my hypotheses. This research offers the first theoretically-motivated, rigorous analysis and evidence of the impact of immediate racial environment on individuals’ participation.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / This thesis examines recent changes in state level voting laws and their effect on the turnout rate of different minority group voters. Individual states are in charge of conducting their own elections as well as having their own requirements for registering voters and early voting. There is no federal law or constitutional mandate that requires states to have similar election laws. but The Voting Rights Act of 1965 tried to ensure the laws passed do not disproportionately exclude certain citizens from the ability to vote. Because of this attempt to not exclude minority groups, election laws can vary widely by states and impact citizens of some minority groups. Some states have chosen to pass laws that make registering and voting more complicated, while others have tried to ensure that both are as easy as possible for each and every citizen. Voting laws can have negative consequences for many groups. Minority populations are often thought to be hit the hardest by many of these election reform laws. Some states have been passing more restrictive laws since 2000 and again in 2013 after section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act was ruled unconstitutional by the United States Supreme Court. This variance in election laws across states and across election years gives a perfect arena to further evaluate the potential effect. This analysis will look at comparing states from 2006 to 2014 in order to determine the effect of restrictive voting laws on turnout.

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In political campaigning substantial resources are spent on voter mobilization, that is, on identifying and influencing as many people as possible to vote. Campaigns use statistical tools for deciding whom to target ("microtargeting"). In this paper we describe a nonpartisan campaign that aims at increasing overall turnout using the example of the 2004 US presidential election. Based on a real data set of 19,634 eligible voters from Ohio, we introduce a modern statistical framework well suited for carrying out the main tasks of voter targeting in a single sweep: predicting an individual's turnout (or support) likelihood for a particular cause, party or candidate as well as data-driven voter segmentation. Our framework, which we refer to as LORET (for LOgistic REgression Trees), contains standard methods such as logistic regression and classification trees as special cases and allows for a synthesis of both techniques. For our case study, we explore various LORET models with different regressors in the logistic model components and different partitioning variables in the tree components; we analyze them in terms of their predictive accuracy and compare the effect of using the full set of available variables against using only a limited amount of information. We find that augmenting a standard set of variables (such as age and voting history) with additional predictor variables (such as the household composition in terms of party affiliation) clearly improves predictive accuracy. We also find that LORET models based on tree induction beat the unpartitioned models. Furthermore, we illustrate how voter segmentation arises from our framework and discuss the resulting profiles from a targeting point of view. (authors' abstract)

Over the past few decades, falling voter turnout rates have induced governments to adopt compulsory voting laws, in order to mitigate issues such as the socioeconomic voter gap and to bring a broader spectrum of voters into the fold. This paper presents evidence that the introduction of mandatory voting laws increases voter turnout rates by 13 points within a particular country through an entity- and time-fixed effect panel model. Moreover, it includes a discussion of the implications of adopting mandatory voting policies within the United States, finding that compelling citizens to vote would have increased participation rates to over 90 percent in the past four presidential elections.

The dissertation examines the use of background appeals in campaign messages. I argue that background appeals allow campaigns to meet two seemingly conflicting incentives in the same message—the incentive to reduce voters’ uncertainty about their candidate, and the incentive to remain ambiguous in their issue positions. Background appeals allow voters to know more about a candidate and develop more certainty about what he will do in office. At the same times, campaigns can achieve this goal while avoiding specific policy commitments, which, on controversial issues, might repel a significant part of the electorate. I test my argument by examining how campaigns plan on using candidates’ backgrounds by interviewing a sample of political consultants. The consultants I interviewed make the candidate’s background a top priority in developing a message plan for their clients. They want to show voters “who their candidate is” as a means of developing likeability and credibility with voters. As expected, campaigns use background appeals frequently, in nearly 80% of advertisements aired by US Senate campaigns in 2000 and 2002. But in these appeals, campaigns avoid specifically connecting their candidate to particular policies. Also, the appeal of ambiguity is so great that campaigns only use more specific background appeals when discussing the opponent’s background. Background appeals can have a positive effect on perceptions of a candidate. Using an experimental design, I vary the background of a mock candidate for Congress while holding constant his issue position. Respondents regard the candidate more favorably when they learn about his occupation than when they receive no such information. / text

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Building from Hannah Pitkin’s work on forms of representative democracy, this thesis demonstrates how differing generational expectations of political representation affect participation in electoral politics. Consistent with earlier work, it confirms that youth voting decreases when young people are less educated, less interested, or when they lack a sense of responsibility. However these factors only explain part—and not necessarily the most important part—of the younger generation’s motivations for voting. The analysis also shows that youth are markedly less likely to vote when young people feel that their values are not aligned with those of political leaders. The relationship between values—or symbolic representation—and voting remains significant and strong for young people even when the classic predictors of voting are included in the model. In fact, symbolic representation is a stronger predictor of voting than such factors as education, political interest, or the sense of responsibility to vote. This new variable is therefore important in understanding why the most recent decline in voting occurs predominantly among youth. Issue campaigns are less likely to move young people one way or another with respect to voting, as the majority of issues do not affect young people directly, if at all. As a consequence youth are left to rely on their own understanding of what political leaders actually stand for to pull them in or entice them to vote. But if the values that young people care about are not symbolically represented by political leaders and their electoral platforms, then youth will have less to vote for, and will likely just stay home and ignore elections altogether. Conversely, if political leaders make modest changes to their campaign strategies that also appeal to values—rather than strictly to interests—we could also see an increase in turnout among youth, and therefore an increase in democratic legitimacy.