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A motorway network is handled as a linear network. The purpose of this study is to highlight dangerous motorways via estimating the intensity of accidents and study its pattern across the UK motorway network. Two mechanisms have been adopted to achieve this aim. The first, the motorway-specific intensity is estimated by modelling the point pattern of the accident data using a homogeneous Poisson process. The homogeneous Poisson process is used to model all intensities but heterogeneity across motorways is incorporated using two-level hierarchical models. The data structure is multilevel since each motorway consists of junctions that are joined by grouped segments. In the second mechanism, the segment-specific intensity is estimated by modelling the point pattern of the accident data. The homogeneous Poisson process is used to model accident data within segments but heterogeneity across segments is incorporated using three-level hierarchical models. A Bayesian method via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithms is used in order to estimate the unknown parameters in the models and a sensitivity analysis to the prior choice is assessed. The performance of the proposed models is checked through a simulation study and an application to traffic accidents in 2016 on the UK motorway network. The performance of the three-level frequentist model was poor. The deviance information criterion (DIC) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are employed to choose between the two-level Bayesian hierarchical model and the three-level Bayesian hierarchical model, where the results showed that the best fitting model was the three-level Bayesian hierarchical model.

Leaf phenology refers to the timing of leaf life cycle events and is essential to our understanding of the earth system as it impacts the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and indirectly global climate through changes in surface roughness and albedo. Traditionally, leaf phenology is described as a response to higher temperatures in spring and lower temperatures in autumn for temperate regions. With the advent of carbon ecosystem models however, we need a better representation of seasonal cycles, one that is able to explain phenology in different areas around the globe, including tropical regions, and has the capacity to predict phenology under future climates. We propose a global phenology model based on the hypothesis that phenology is a strategy through which plants reach optimal carbon assimilation. We fit this 14 parameter model to five years of space borne data of leaf area index using a Bayesian fitting algorithm and we use it to simulate leaf seasonal cycles across the globe. We explain the observed increase in leaf area over the Amazon basin during the dry season through an increase in available direct solar radiation. Seasonal cycles in dry tropical areas are explained by the variation in water availability, while phenology at higher latitudes is driven by changes in temperature and daylength. We explore the hypothesis that phenological traits can be explained at the biome (plant functional group) level and we show that some characteristics can only be explained at the species level due to local factors such as water and nutrient availability. We anticipate that our work can be incorporated into larger earth system models and used to predict future phenological patterns.

This essay provides a comparison of Trump’s rhetoric to fascist and populist ideology through an analysis and politolinguistic framing of the usage of apophasis, mesarchia, and pathos in Trump content spanning the first six months of his candidacy for the 2016 U.S. presidency seat. This account finds that Trump is decidedly Ur-Fascist or populist, and cannot be neither of the two, is likely both Ur-Fascist and populist, and leans more in favor of populist ideology given the analyses undertaken. This account ultimately aims to have supported critical discourse analysis (CDA) and politiolinguistics in support of these approaches as rigorous political tools, and to have encouraged the pursuit of political and civil awareness.

Following the pioneering work of Allenby and Ginter (1995) and Lenk et al.(1994); we propose in Section 2 a mixed effect model allowing for fixed and random effects as possible statistical solution to the problems mentioned above. Parameter estimation using a new, efficient variant of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method will be discussed in Section 3 together with problems of model comparison techniques in the context of random effect models. Section 4 presents an application of the former to a brand-price trade-off study from the Austrian mineral water market. (author's abstract) / Series: Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statistik

Diss. (sammanfattning) Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet, 2009. / Härtill 5 uppsatser.

The fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I enabled the victorious Western powers to implement the Sykes-Picot Treaty and reshape the geopolitical structure of the Middle East. The imposition of arbitrary borders on the Middle East region, specifically the state of Iraq, would lead to significant conflicts over the course of the 20th century. In 2003, a US-led invasion would further compound the instability and sectarian conflict within Iraq by completely dismantling the state. In the years after the invasion, the United States has been directly involved unsuccessfully in trying to rebuild and stabilize the state of Iraq. The goal of this study is to propose and analyze four options for the future geopolitical structure of Iraq that, by design, could maintain the current geopolitical borders and possibly contribute to stability in the Middle East. A qualitative approach that examines the benefits of different models of government is used to identify themes that may apply to the state of Iraq, Because adoption of any of the proposed options depends on choices that must be made by the Iraqi government, this thesis presents only a theoretical argument about the country’s likely future. It is my contention that the most likely route to achieving long-term political stability within Iraq is implementation of a federalist model of government that resembles the Swiss model. The Swiss model provides a framework to create ethnic tolerance through specific power devolution, internal cooperation, and conflict resolution between the different tribal and ethnic groups within each region, and external cooperation and adjudication of issues between the regions and the central government. This study’s results show that the different options analyzed all have positive and negative characteristics. The three-region Swiss model provided an exceptional framework and addressed a number of Iraq’s problems, but elements of the other models could be implemented into the three-region model to create a more stable state. Further analysis is needed to determine the best model of government to stabilize Iraq.

Diss. Uppsala : Uppsala universitet, 2007.

In this thesis, a parallel solver was developed for the modelling of blood flow through a number of patient-specific geometries. A locally conservative Galerkin (LCG) spatial discretisation was applied along with an artificial compressibility and characteristic based split (CBS) scheme to solve the 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The Spalart-Allmaras one equation turbulence model was also optionally employed. The solver was constructed using FORTRAN and the Message Passing Interface (MPI). Parallel testing demonstrated linear or better than linear speedup on hybrid patient-specific meshes. These meshes were unstructured with structured boundary layers. From the parallel testing it is clear that the significance of inter-processor communication is negligible in a three dimensional case. Preliminary tests on a short patient-specific carotid geometry demonstrated the need for ten or more boundary layer meshes in order to sufficiently resolve the peak wall shear stress (WSS) along with the peak time-averaged WSS. A time sensitivity study was also undertaken along with the assessment of the order of the real time step term. Three backward difference formulae (BDF) were tested and no significant difference between them was detected. Significant speedup was possible as the order of time discretisation increased however, making the choice of BDF important in producing a timely solution. Followed by the preliminary investigation, four more carotid geometries were investigated in detail. A total of six haemodynamic wall parameters have been brought together to analyse the regions of possible atherogenesis within each carotid. The investigations revealed that geometry plays an overriding influence on the wall parameter distribution. Each carotid artery displayed high time-averaged WSS at the apex, although the value increased significantly with a proximal stenosis. Two out of four meshes contained a region of low time-averaged WSS distal to the flow divider and within the largest connecting artery (internal or external carotid artery), indicating a potential region of atherosclerosis plaque formation. The remaining two meshes already had a stenosis in the corresponding region. This is in excellent agreement with other established works. From the investigations, it is apparent that a classification system of stenosis severity may be possible with potential application as a clinical diagnosis aid. Finally, the flow within a thoracic aortic aneurysm was investigated in order to assess the influence of a proximal folded neck. The folded neck had a significant effect on the wall shear stress, increasing by up to 250% over an artificially smoothed neck. High wall shear stresses may be linked to aneurysm rupture. Being proximal to the aneurysm, this indicated that local geometry should be taken into account when assessing the rupture potential of an aneurysm.

This thesis aims to discern whether cyclical history can be appropriately applied to the Ab Urbe Condita, and from these findings discern Livy's authorial implications for the contemporary political program. This process is conducted by analyzing exempla , as well as constructing a new definition of metus hostilis. Doing so allows for the detection of patterns, that when imprinted upon the existing formulaic model, examines whether the metus hostilis enhances the case for Livy writing the AUC with cyclical intent. Based on this analysis, the implications for contemporary Rome are clear in that the narrative insinuates the Augustan regime's necessity.