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In this paper we head for a fully Bayesian analysis of the latent class model with a priori unknown number of classes. Estimation is carried out by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We deal explicitely with the consequences the unidentifiability of this type of model has on MCMC estimation. Joint Bayesian estimation of all latent variables, model parameters, and parameters determining the probability law of the latent process is carried out by a new MCMC method called permutation sampling. In a first run we use the random permutation sampler to sample from the unconstrained posterior. We will demonstrate that a lot of important information, such as e.g. estimates of the subject-specific regression coefficients, is available from such an unidentified model. The MCMC output of the random permutation sampler is explored in order to find suitable identifiability constraints. In a second run we use the permutation sampler to sample from the constrained posterior by imposing identifiablity constraints. The unknown number of classes is determined by formal Bayesian model comparison through exact model likelihoods. We apply a new method of computing model likelihoods for latent class models which is based on the method of bridge sampling. The approach is applied to simulated data and to data from a metric conjoint analysis in the Austrian mineral water market. (author's abstract) / Series: Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statistik

China has been increasingly sending more contracts to work on projects in Africa. This study tests the effects of Chinese contracts on economic growth in 50 African countries as well as the correlation between Chinese contracts and other economic indicators. The paper uses data from the World Bank and National Bureau of Statistics of China starting from 2000-2015. This study finds that from 2000 to 2015, Chinese contracts have not been significant in economic growth of all African countries. The analysis does find that Chinese contracts are significant to economic growth when considering only the top five countries who have received the most contracts on average.

China continues to invest in natural resources in Africa to fuel its economic growth.China’s expanded presence in Africa has contributed to growing tensions within the Sino-African relationship. This thesis examines a variety of historical factors that have contributed to the increased presence of China in Africa, and how these factors have evolved into the foundations of the tensions observed today. By exploring the historical patterns of the Sino-Zambian relationship, this thesis will shed light on the foundations of the underlying tensions between the two countries. With the Zambian election of 2006 as a focal point, China faced a political crisis that threatened their broader economic future. Using a double-pronged economic and political approach to mitigate the crisis, China avoided losing its economic interests in the 2006 Zambian election. But in the long run, China has continued facing the same anti-Chinese sentiments in Zambia which questions the viability of their political risk management strategy. This thesis argues that for China to mitigate a political crisis in another African country most effectively, they must modify their strategic decision making model for managing political risk. This thesis proposes an alternate framework which would most effectively address underlying tensions between China and Africa.

Indigenous people in the global periphery are positioned in the crosshairs of neoliberal globalism that not only conspires to liberalize their national markets but also coerce their full integration into the global capitalist economy. This was the case in the Calca Province of Peru, where 1960s Green Revolution reform sought to integrate Quechua agrarian communities into the global economy. Neoliberal reform impoverished Quechua communities through increasing production costs and decreasing the retail prices of produce. As a protectionist reaction, Quechua women cultivated a network of barter markets to combat food insecurity. Using anthropologist Jon Altman’s (2011) theory of Hybrid Economy as a framework of analysis, this thesis evaluates economic activity in the Calca Province with qualitative, quantitative, and ethnographic evidence from two recently published case studies. This thesis argues that the hybrid economy in the Calca Province is one of dual market access, as Quechua people navigate through a non-monetized customary economy and a monetized economy. The hybrid economy expands market access and promotes the continuance of customary exchange. These findings contribute to our understanding of alternative economic development and valorize the customary economy as an autonomous institution that absorbs the blows of the global market and is not to be confused as transitional to capitalism.

In the present paper we study switching state space models from a Bayesian point of view. For estimation, the model is reformulated as a hierarchical model. We discuss various MCMC methods for Bayesian estimation, among them unconstrained Gibbs sampling, constrained sampling and permutation sampling. We address in detail the problem of unidentifiability, and discuss potential information available from an unidentified model. Furthermore the paper discusses issues in model selection such as selecting the number of states or testing for the presence of Markov switching heterogeneity. The model likelihoods of all possible hypotheses are estimated by using the method of bridge sampling. We conclude the paper with applications to simulated data as well as to modelling the U.S./U.K. real exchange rate. (author's abstract) / Series: Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statistik

Though scholars have assessed the unilateral presidency with renewed interests, the literature remains weak in three important areas. What relation, if any, exists between the public and presidential unilateral actions? What impact does the judiciary have on unilateral presidential power? To what extent do presidents use the many tools in the unilateral policy toolchest? The three essays in this dissertation address each of these questions in term. Results have implications for both the unilateral presidency and broader works in executive decision-making and democratic governance.

This paper presents the fully Bayesian analysis of the latent class model using a new approach towards MCMC estimation in the context of mixture models. The approach starts with estimating unidentified models for various numbers of classes. Exact Bayes' factors are computed by the bridge sampling estimator to compare different models and select the number of classes. Estimation of the unidentified model is carried out using the random permutation sampler. From the unidentified model estimates for model parameters that are not class specific are derived. Then, the exploration of the MCMC output from the unconstrained model yields suitable identifiability constraints. Finally, the constrained version of the permutation sampler is used to estimate group specific parameters. Conjoint data from the Austrian mineral water market serve to illustrate the method. (author's abstract) / Series: Report Series SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Liberalism is a political philosophy that is “committed in the strongest possible way to individual rights, and, almost as a deduction from this, to a rigorously neutral state” (Walzer 99). It takes its “constitutive morality” to be a “theory of equality that requires official neutrality amongst theories of what is valuable in life” (Dworkin 203). For this reason, some theorists say Liberalism and the idea of environmental sustainability are not in conflict with one another. According to Mike Mills, because the commitment to neutrality means there is “no given set of policies associated” with Liberalism, any outcome is plausible (168). However, through this paper, I will show that the frameworks of Liberal political theory are not neutral because they cannot give due consideration to claims for environmental sustainability. Given these procedural incapacities, true neutral consideration would involve a counterintuitive commitment to fully supporting sustainability, further justification for which could come from a reexamination of the underlying Liberal theory of human nature.

In this paper we head for a fully Bayesian analysis of the latent class model with a priori unknown number of classes. Estimation is carried out by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We deal explicitely with the consequences the unidentifiability of this type of model has on MCMC estimation. Joint Bayesian estimation of all latent variables, model parameters, and parameters determining the probability law of the latent process is carried out by a new MCMC method called permutation sampling. In a first run we use the random permutation sampler to sample from the unconstrained posterior. We will demonstrate that a lot of important information, such as e.g. estimates of the subject-specific regression coefficients, is available from such an unidentified model. The MCMC output of the random permutation sampler is explored in order to find suitable identifiability constraints. In a second run we use the permutation sampler to sample from the constrained posterior by imposing identifiablity constraints. The unknown number of classes is determined by formal Bayesian model comparison through exact model likelihoods. We apply a new method of computing model likelihoods for latent class models which is based on the method of bridge sampling. The approach is applied to simulated data and to data from a metric conjoint analysis in the Austrian mineral water market. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"