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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

FORECASTS AND IMPLICATIONS USING VIX OPTIONS

Stanley, Spencer, Trainor, William 01 May 2021 (has links)
This study examines the Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) which is the implied volatility calculated from short-term option prices on the Standards & Poor’s 500 stock index (S&P 500). Findings suggest VIX overestimates average volatility by approximately 3% but explains 55% of S&P 500’s proceeding month’s volatility. The implied volatility (IV) from options on the VIX add additional explanatory power for the S&P’s 500 proceeding kurtosis values (a measure of tail risk). The VIX option’s volatility smirks did not add additional explanatory power for explaining the S&P 500 volatility or kurtosis. A simple trading rule based on buying the S&P 500 whether the VIX, IV from the options on the VIX, and the VIX option’s volatility smirk decline over the preceding month results in an additional 0.96% return in the following month. However, this only occurs approximately 10% of the time and does not outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy as the strategy has the investor out of the market the majority of the time.

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