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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

The ability of the Value Line Investment Survey to forecast "Probable twelve months market performance rank"

Staley, Donald Ross January 1966 (has links)
In the thesis the author attempts to discover whether or not The Value Line Investment Survey shows evidence of an ability to forecast "Probable Twelve Months Market Performance Rank," a ranking of stocks according to their probable relative price performance within the succeeding twelve months. To test the ability to forecast, the author determines the significance of the correlation between the ranking of stocks according to the forecast and the ranking of stocks according to the observed relative price performance within the year. The conclusion drawn is that The Value Line Investment Survey does not show evidence of a consistent ability to forecast "Probable Twelve Months Market Performance Rank." The author also presents a model of the process which may underly the generation of stock market price changes. The author tests the assumption of the independence of price changes, a part of the model, on the data of the thesis and finds that the test results do not refute the assumption. The model, the "Random Walk Hypothesis," is related to the ability of The Value Line Investment Survey to forecast "Probable Twelve Months Market Performance Rank." It is concluded that The Value Line Investment Survey has failed to show that its forecasts are superior to forecasts based solely on past prices where the market is assumed to follow a random walk. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

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