The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is one of the largest transboundary basins in the world shared between six south Asian countries. The Mekong river supports a population of more than sixty million people through irrigation and fisheries for their survival and hosts approximately 88,000 MW of unharnessed hydropower potential. The construction of the dams for the supply of energy has a wide-ranging effect on the downstream regions of reservoirs, causing unprecedented and devastating damage to the environment and livelihood of people. The dissertation examines the optimal operation of the dams for the equitable distribution of water between irrigation, domestic, and hydropower sectors with minimal effect on the downstream ecosystem by estimating the cascading effects of dams in the MRB. The hydrological characteristic of the MRB was simulated using the high resolution (1 km) Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model with the Lohmann et al. (1996, 1998) routing scheme and general circulation models projection for the future till 2099. Remote sensing products were used for the derivation of the reservoir behaviors, while the net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) was simulated by the irrigation scheme embedded in the improved VIC model. The VIC-MODFLOW (VIC-MF) coupled model was used for the investigation of the interaction between the surface and groundwater movement. The hydropower potential of the dams was estimated using the modified Hanasaki et al. (2006) approach by explicitly considering the irrigation water demand from the expanding and intensifying agricultural activities. A system dynamic model for the MRB was developed for the sustainable optimization of water allocation to meet the needs from the irrigation, domestic, hydropower generation, and ecological sectors. Economic analysis was performed to evaluate the existing and future conditions over the resource surplus regions with consideration of social impacts. Streamflows in the MRB varied substantially with the peak monthly streamflow from 10 m3/sec to 40,000 m3/sec. The inflows to dams in both main river and tributaries are projected to increase from 1.2% to 25% under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of 28.5% - 74.7% under RCP 8.5 during 2020-2099 as compared to the historic mean. The NIWR for the MRB was calculated as 65,000 million m3 for the observed period (1981-2019) with a decrease of 0.25% for the future period. The groundwater interaction is expected to enhance the surface streamflow resulting in additional inflow to dams. The multipurpose reservoirs were able to generate the desired annual energy ranging from 15 GWh to 400 GWh along with satisfying more than 80% of the irrigation water demand. Similarly, the irrigation reservoirs also satisfied more than 80% of the water demand for irrigation and hydropower reservoirs to generate the required energy between 2 GWh and 18990 GWh. Climate change will enhance the hydropower potential with an average increase of 7.3% and 5.3% in the future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The increase in the irrigated area (5% and 10%) reduces the energy generation of the multipurpose dams by 1.5%, however, the addition of a crop cycle lowers the energy generation by more than 10%. The system dynamics model showed the multipurpose dams produced annual energy of 316 GWh and satisfied more than 60% of the irrigation, municipal, and industrial sectors water demand during 2006-2019. Similarly, irrigation dams supplying more than 60% of the irrigation water demand, and 50% of the municipal and industrial sectors demand. Climate change has a positive influence on the performance of the dams. The assessment of the shadow price shows that the dam operation in Thailand, Laos PDR, and China will be sufficient to meet the water demands of the energy, irrigation, municipal, and industrial sectors, while the energy sector of Cambodia and Vietnam may experience adverse impacts. / Doctor of Philosophy / The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is one of the largest transboundary basins in the world shared between six south Asian countries. The Mekong river supports more than sixty million people through irrigation and fisheries for their survival and hosts unharnessed hydropower potential. The construction of the dams has a wide-ranging effect on the downstream regions of reservoirs, causing damage to the environment and livelihood of people. The dissertation studies the optimal operation of the dams in the MRB for the equitable distribution of water between irrigation, domestic, and hydropower sectors with minimal effect on the ecosystem. The streamflow of the MRB was simulated using the hydrological model with a routing scheme and future projection till 2099. Remote sensing products were used for the derivation of the reservoir behaviors. The water requirement for the irrigation and the groundwater-surface interaction was simulated by the irrigation scheme embedded in the hydrological model and groundwater coupled model. The hydropower potential of the dams was estimated by explicitly considering the irrigation water demand from the expanding and intensifying agricultural activities. A dynamic model for the MRB was developed for the sustainable optimization of water allocation to meet the needs from the irrigation, domestic, hydropower generation, and ecological sectors. Economic analysis was performed to evaluate the existing and future conditions over the resource surplus regions with consideration of social impacts. Streamflows in the MRB varied substantially between the dams based on the location at the mainstem or tributaries. The inflows to dams in both main river and tributaries in the future is expected to increase under low-carbon emission and decrease under high-carbon emission conditions. The irrigation water for the MRB was calculated as 65,000 million m3 for the period 1981-2019 and expected to decrease in the future. The groundwater interaction is expected to increase the surface streamflow resulting in additional inflow to dams. The multipurpose reservoirs were able to generate the desired annual energy ranging along with satisfying more than 80% of the irrigation water demand. Similarly, the irrigation reservoirs also satisfied more than 80% of the water demand for irrigation and hydropower reservoirs to generate the required energy. Climate change will favor the hydropower energy potential in the future. The increase in the irrigated area and the addition of a crop cycle reduces the energy generation of the multipurpose dams. The system dynamics model showed the multipurpose dams produced 97% of the demand energy and satisfied more than 60% of the irrigation, municipal, and industrial sectors water demand during 2006-2019. Similarly, irrigation dams supplying more than 60% of the irrigation water demand, and 50% of the municipal and industrial sectors demand. Climate change has a positive influence on the performance of the dams. The assessment of the shadow price shows that the dam operation in Thailand, Laos PDR, and China will be sufficient to meet the water demands of the energy, irrigation, municipal, and industrial sectors, while the energy sector of Cambodia and Vietnam may experience adverse impacts.

Numerous studies indicate that the hydrology of a river basin is influenced by Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and climate. LULC affects the quality and quantity of water resources through its influence on Evapotranspiration (ET) and initiation of surface runoff while climate affects the intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature which are major drivers of the hydrologic cycle. Literature reports several works on either the effect of changing LULC or climate on the hydrology. However, changes in LULC and climate occur simultaneously in reality. Thus, there is a need to perform an integrated impact assessment of such changes on the hydrological regime at a basin scale. In order to carry out the impact assessment, physically-based hydrologic models are often employed. The present study focuses on assessment of the effect of changing LULC and climate on the hydrology of the Upper Ganga basin (UGB), India, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. In order to obtain the changes that have occurred in the LULC of the basin over a time period, initially LULC analysis is carried out. For this purpose, high resolution multispectral satellite imageries from Landsat are procured for the years 1973, 1980, 2000 and 2011. The images are pre-processed to project them to a common projection system and are then co-registered. The processed images are used for classification into different land cover classes. This step requires training sites which are collected during the field visit as part of this work. The classified images, thus obtained are used to analyse temporal changes in LULC of the region. The results indicate an increase in crop land and urban area of the region by 47% and 122% respectively from 1973 to 2011. After initial decline in dense forest for the first three decades, an increase in the dense forest is observed between 2000- 2011 (from 11.44% to 14.8%). Scrub forest area and barren land are observed to decline in the study region by 62% and 96% respectively since 1973. The land cover information along with meteorological data and soil data are used to drive the VIC model to investigate the impact of LULC changes on streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) components of hydrology in the UGB. For the simulation purpose, the entire basin is divided into three regions (1) upstream (with Bhimgodha as the outlet), (2) midstream (with Ankinghat as the outlet) and (3) downstream (with Allahabad as the outlet). The VIC model is calibrated and validated for all the three regions independently at monthly scale. Model performance is assessed based on the criterion of normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). It is observed that the model performed well with reasonable accuracy for upstream and midstream regions. In case of the downstream region, due to lack of observed discharge data, model performance could not be assessed. Hence, the simulations for the downstream region are performed using the calibrated model of the midstream region. The model outputs from the three regions are aggregated appropriately to generate the total hydrologic response of the UGB. Using the calibrated models for different region of the UGB, sensitivity analysis is performed by generating hydrologic scenarios corresponding to different land use (LU) and climate conditions. In order to investigate the impact of changing LU on hydrological variables, a scenario is generated in which climate is kept constant and LU is varied. Under this scenario, only the land cover related variables are altered in the model keeping the meteorological variables constant. Thus, the effect of LU change is segregated from the effect of climate. The results obtained from these simulations indicated that the change in LU significantly affects peak streamflow depth which is observed to be 77.58% more in August 2011 in comparison with the peak streamflow of August, 1973. Furthermore, ET is found to increase by 46.44% since 1973 across the entire basin. In order to assess the impact of changing climate on hydrological variables, a scenario is generated in which LU is kept constant and climate is varied from 1971-2005. Under this scenario, land cover related variables are kept constant in the model and meteorological variables are varied for different time periods. The results indicate decline in the simulated discharge for the years 1971, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2005, which is supported by decline in observed annual rainfall for the respective years. Amongst 1971 and 2005, year 2005 received 26% less rainfall resulting in 35% less discharge. Furthermore, ET is observed to be negligibly affected. To understand the integrated impact of changing LU and climate on hydrological variables, a scenario is generated in which both climate and LU are altered. Based on the data available, three years (1973, 1980 and 2000) are considered for the simulations. Under this scenario, both land cover and meteorological variables are varied in the model. The results obtained showed that the discharge hydrograph for the year 1980 has significantly higher peak compared to the hydrographs of years 1973 and 2000. This could be due to the fact that the year 1980 received maximum rainfall amongst the three years considered for simulations. Although the basin received higher rainfall in the year 1980 compared to that in 2000, ET from the basin in the year 1980 is found to be 21% less than that of the year 2000. This could be attributed to the change in LU that occurred between the years 1980 and 2000. Amongst the years 1973 and 2000, there is not much difference in the observed rainfall but ET for the year 2000 is observed to be significantly higher than that of year 1973. It is concluded from the present study that in the UGB, changing LULC contributes significantly to the changes in peak discharge and ET while rainfall pattern considerably influences the runoff pattern of the region. Future work proposed includes assessment of hydrologic response of basin under future LULC and climate scenarios. Also the model efficiency can be assessed by performing hydrologic simulations at different grid sizes.

<p dir="ltr">Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are intense low-pressure weather systems that acts as a meteorological monster causing severe rainfall and widespread freshwater flooding, leading to extensive damage and disruption. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are crucial for accurately understanding and evaluating the impacts of TCs. However, QPEs derived from various modalities, such as rain gauges, ground-based merged radars, and satellites, can differ significantly and require thorough comparison. Understanding the limitations/advantages of using each QPE is essential to simulate a hydrological model especially to estimate extreme events like TCs. The objective of the dissertation is to 1) characterize the tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) using three gridded products, 2) characterize the impact of using different QPEs in estimation of hydrological variables using a hydrology model, and 3) understand the usability of satellite-derived QPEs for eight cases of TC and its impact on the estimate of hydrological variables. The QPEs include near real-time and post-processed satellite data from NASA’s Global Precipitation Mission-Integrated Multi-sensor Retrievals for GPM Rainfall Product (IMERG), merged ground radar observations (Stage IV) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and interpolated gauge observations from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (GCOOP). The study quantifies how differences in rainfall intensity and location, as derived from these gridded precipitation datasets, impact surface hydrology. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the geographic information system (GIS) routing assess the propagation of bias in the daily rainfall rate to total runoff, evapotranspiration, and flooding. The analysis covers eight tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Charley (2004), Hurricane Frances (2004), Hurricane Jeanne (2004), Tropical Storm Fay (2008), Tropical Storm Beryl (2012), Tropical Storm Debby (2012), Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Michael (2018) focusing on different regions in South-Atlantic Gulf region and land uses. The findings indicate that IMERG underpredicts precipitation at higher quantiles but aligns closely with ground-based and radar-based products at lower quantiles. IMERG reliably estimates total runoff and evapotranspiration in 90% of TC scenarios along the track and in agricultural and forested regions. There is substantial overlap ~ 70% between IMERG and GCOOP/Stage IV for the 90th percentile rainfall spatially for the case of TC Beryl 2012. Despite previous perceptions of underestimation, the study suggests that satellite-derived rainfall products can be valuable in simulating streamflow, particularly in data-scarce regions where ground estimates are lacking. The relative error in estimation is 12% and 22% when using IMERG instead of Stage IV and GCOOP rainfall data. The findings contribute to a broader perspective on usability of IMERG in estimating near real-time hydrological characteristics, paving the way for further research in this area. This analysis demonstrates that IMERG can be a reliable data product for hydrological studies even in the extreme events like landfalling TCs. This will be helpful in improving the preparedness of vulnerable communities and infrastructure against TC-induced flooding in data scare regions.</p>