Recent research documents that voluntary disclosure—in particular, managerial forecast guidance—lowers uncertainty levels, as proxied by option implied variances. In this study I explore the effect of such voluntary disclosure on other dimensions of uncertainty. In particular, I investigate the effect of managerial guidance on the variance risk premium (VRP). Prior research predicts and provides empirical evidence of the VRP, which reflects that implied variances (on average) exceed actual variances, and exists to compensate traders, who sell variance protection for equity options. First, I confirm previous findings that implied variances are lower when firms issue management guidance. Second and more importantly, I document that the VRP is higher when firms provide guidance. I reconcile these seemingly contradictory results by (i) confirming that a significant portion of the increase in VRP is attributable to uncertainty specific to the impending earnings announcement, consistent with the primary role played by the voluntary management disclosure; and (ii) documenting that a higher moment of uncertainty—implied kurtosis levels (i.e., price jump risk)—is higher with managerial guidance. Additional tests examining characteristics of managerial guidance reveal these findings are strongest for firms issuing sporadic guidance, guidance issued close to earnings announcements, and those exhibiting the largest surprise. Overall, the evidence suggests that voluntary disclosure such as management guidance can reduce expected variance, but simultaneously increase higher order moments of uncertainty such as expected price jumps.

In this thesis, I study the variance risk premium in Gold VIX market. Using synthetically created variance swaps, I quantify the variance risk premium to be average -0.068 in absolute terms and -0.358 in log return terms, meaning that purchasing volatility in Gold VIX is generally unprofitable. Although the average negative risk premium is not statistically significant, the mean log return of risk premium is robust with Newey-West test. Furthermore, I attempt to test whether risk premium vary with time or the level of the swap rate, but obtain unclear results.

This thesis uses synthetically created variance swaps on VIX futures to quantify the variance risk premium in VIX options. The results of this methodology suggest that the average premium is -3.26%, meaning that the realized variance on VIX futures is on average less than the variance implied by the swap rate. This premium does not vary with time or the level of the swap rate as much as premiums in other asset classes. A negative risk premium should mean that VIX option strategies that are net credit should be profitable. This thesis tests two simple net credit strategies with puts and calls, and finds that the call strategy is profitable while the put strategy is not.

<p>This dissertation explores issues regarding the short-lived temporal variation of the equity risk premium. In the past decade, the equity risk premium puzzle is resolved by many competing consumption-based asset pricing models. However, before \cite{btz:vrp:rfs}, the return predictability as an outcome of such models has limited empirical support in the short-run. Nowadays, there has been a consensus of the literature that the short-run equity return's predictability is intimately linked with the variance risk premium---the difference between options-implied and actual realized variation measures.</p><p>In this work, I continue to argue the importance of the short-lived components in the equity risk premium. Specifically, I first provide simulation evidence of the strong return predictability based on the variance risk premium in the U.S. aggregate market, and document new empirical findings in the international setting. Then I attempt to use a structural macro-finance model to guide through the predictability estimation with much more efficiency gain. Finally I decompose the equity risk premium into two short-lived parts --- tail risk and diffusive risk --- and propose a semi-parametric estimation method for each part. The results are arranged in the following order.</p><p>Chapter 1 of the dissertation is co-authored with Tim Bollerslev, James Marrone and Hao Zhou. In this chapter, we demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot ``explain'' this apparent predictability in U.S. market based on variance risk premium. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country specific regressions for France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium and the U.K. result in quite similar patterns. Defining a ``global'' variance risk premium, we uncover even stronger predictability and almost identical cross-country patterns through the use of panel regressions. </p><p>Chapter 2 of the dissertation is co-authored with Tim Bollerslev and Hao Zhou. In this chapter, we examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidences that the expected return variation and the variance risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns \textit{and} dividend growth rates. We also confirm that dividend yield positively forecasts long-horizon returns, but that it does not help in forecasting dividend growth rates. Our equilibrium-based ``structural'' factor GARCH model permits much more accurate inference than %the reduced form VAR and</p><p>univariate regression procedures traditionally employed in the literature. The model also allows for the direct estimation of the underlying economic mechanisms, including a new volatility leverage effect, the persistence of the latent long-run growth component and the two latent volatility factors, as well as the contemporaneous impacts of the underlying ``structural'' shocks.</p><p>In Chapter 3 of the dissertation, I develop a new semi-parametric estimation method based on an extended ICAPM dynamic model incorporating jump tails. The model allows for time-varying, asymmetric jump size distributions and a self-exciting jump intensity process while avoiding commonly used but restrictive affine assumptions on the relationship between jump intensity and volatility. The estimated model implies that the average annual jump risk premium is 6.75\%. The model-implied jump risk premium also has strong explanatory power for short-to-medium run aggregate market returns. Empirically, I present new estimates of the model based equity risk premia of so-called "Small-Big", "Value-Growth" and "Winners-Losers" portfolios. Further, I find that they are all time-varying and all crashed in the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, both the jump and volatility components of equity risk premia are especially important for the "Winners-Losers" portfolio.</p> / Dissertation